NFC West | Offseason Biggest Winners and Losers
- theoptimaltake
- Jul 11, 2021
- 11 min read
Winners
Losers
Los Angeles Rams
Winner: Matthew Stafford
The Rams are hoping for a script only Hollywood writers can dream of entering 2021. This year's Super Bowl takes place in LA and the Rams are hoping to continue the trend of the host city participating in the game. Sean McVay lands the man he's been looking for in Matthew Stafford, who has posted seven consecutive seasons with at least 4,200 yards thrown. We will see a different game plan out of LA who finished 4th to last in the league in average depth of throw. Matthew Stafford averaged 8.7 yards per attempt, while Jared Goff was a league-worst 7.7.
The Rams were one of the most run-heavy teams in the NFL last season. They ranked 4th most in both rush attempts and runs inside the red zone. From the 20 yard line, 60.5% of the plays called were runs. From 10 yards or fewer, the Rams ran the ball 72.3% of the time, which trailed only the New England Patriots. We should see Cam Akers' receptions to go up as Stafford has targeted running backs on 22% of his throws compared to just 14% by Goff.
No stranger to being a gunslinger, Stafford leads the league in 50-yard play-action passes since 2009 with 11. No other quarterback in that time has more than eight. Jared Goff last season had a league-worst 27% completion rate on such throws. Cooper Kupp battled injuries, but still achieved another 90+ reception season and is hoping to be Stafford’s safety blanket. Coming off a three-year low, Kupp is a player we expect to bounce back. Last season Kupp was targeted eight times on throws over 20 yards, and was only able to catch 1 of those passes.
Robert Woods had 936 yards and six touchdowns which should both see an uptick with Stafford starting in 2021. We can see him and Cooper Kupp involved deeper down the field. Last season Stafford played 75% of his games without Kenny G and averaged 11 air yards per throw. When the duo played with Goff, he averaged 6.7 yards per throw. Following up his third consecutive season with 85+ receptions, Woods and the Rams should operate more play action throws which stands to benefit him. Woods led the team in targets, receptions, yards, and touchdowns on such play calls last season. He has also has been involved in the rushing game with 60 rush attempts, 427 yards, and four touchdowns over the past three seasons.
The Rams also went out to sign LA-native DeSean Jackson who posted excellent numbers when McVay and he were paired in Washington. In his 2014-2016 seasons Jackson had 14 touchdowns and averaged 19 yards per catch. Jackson's health has been an issue over the past few seasons, but the Rams have insurance in Van Jefferson and second-round rookie TuTu Atwell if Jackson can not stay healthy.
Loser: Rams Defense
The Rams defense finished first overall in 2020. As a result, it's no surprise that many stars have been poached in free agency. It's also no surprise that the Rams lost their defensive coordinator to the cross-town LA Chargers. The Rams lost a number of key starters including defensive captain and play-caller John Johnson, Troy Hill, Samson Ebukam, and Michael Brockers.
San Francisco 49ers
Winner: Trey Lance
The combination of an accurate quarterback on wheels with Kyle Shanahan calling plays makes Trey Lance a very scary addition to the 49ers. Injuries derailed the 2020 season, leaving a never-ending cycle of quarterbacks between Jimmy G, Nick Mullens, and C.J. Beathard. A quarterback of the future was a need the 49ers knew they had to address. This team was one incomplete pass away from winning the Super Bowl in 2020, so they went out and traded two first draft picks and moved up to a position that allowed them to acquire Trey Lance. While Jimmy G has been ok, the 49ers know exactly what they have on their roster and feel like they can win it all in 2021. Shanahan has squeezed out excellent seasons from Jimmy G, Matt Ryan, Kirk Cousins, and RG3. Lance opted out of 2020, so he is raw but the 49ers thought highly enough of him to trade a large overhaul for his services. Despite reports that Jimmy G shall open as the starter, his leash is incredibly short after being outright benched for Mullens and Beathard just last season. Defensive coordinators already have a difficult time game planning for San Francisco’s offense, so adding a mobile quarterback will only make it that much harder to defend. Under Jimmy G, the 49ers operated a quick screen game with a very low average depth of target. The game plan was to run the rock and get the ball into the playmaker's hands. Deebo Samuel, for example, averaged only two yards per target. With the addition of Trey Lance, this team has every opportunity to get back to the Super Bowl, which we can’t forget held the lead in the 2019 championship with just seven minutes left to play.
Loser: Jimmy Garoppolo
After being shopped this off-season and failing to find any takers, Jimmy G's future is looking similar to Sam Bradford's. A pre-season injury to Teddy Bridgewater left the Vikings scrambling for a starting quarterback a week prior to kickoff. If such a scenario happens, the 49ers will wait to get the highest bid possible and make up for the draft picks allocated to make the Trey Lance trade. Jimmy G has been in and out of the lineup with injuries, but when he has played, San Francisco has won. He has led them to a 24-8 win/loss record in his tenure as the starter.
Seattle Seahawks
Winner: Russell Wilson
Over the first half of the 2020 season, Russell Wilson averaged 34 fantasy points per game. Over the second half of the season, his production dipped, averaging just 19 PPG. The reason behind this is Seattle’s improved defensive play and more reliance on the rushing game. Over the second half, Wilson threw five fewer attempts per game for more than two yards fewer per throw, and he slipped from 3.5 touchdowns per game to 1.5. HC Pete Carroll was disappointed in the offense's production and said during his post-game elimination press conference that the team must get better at running the ball to hold the lead. Carroll was so angry that he fired OC Brian Schottenheimer. Even though the Rams lost both games in the regular season, they laid out a blueprint for slowing down Seattle by taking away the big play bombs to DK Metcalf, leaving Seattle with a broken offense. The proof is in the numbers. Russ averaged 8.6 yards per attempt in the first half and 6.4 in the second half of 2020.
Fast forward to 2021, Russell Wilson was clearly unhappy and wanted out of Seattle, but everything seems to have settled for now. Unlike Aaron Rodgers or Deshaun Watson, Russell Wilson was able to get what he wanted out of his organization. Former Rams passing game coordinator Shane Waldron was brought in to improve the play calling of the Seahawks. Russ fought for his guys Tyler Lockett (contract extension), Chris Carson (re-signed), and Nick Bellore (re-signed). Frustrated with getting pressured as often as he did last year, he voiced concerns over the fortitude of the Seahawks offensive line, and his wish was granted with the acquisition of G Gabe Jackson.
Last season, Wilson's rushing yards went above the 500-yard mark, and his 42 combined passing and rushing touchdowns were both career-highs. Perhaps one of the best connections in the NFL is the deep-fly route thrown by Russell Wilson to DK Metcalf. Much like Russ, DK started off the first half at a ridiculous pace. Metcalf averaged 21 PPR points per game in the first half of the year before falling to just 13 PPR in the second half. His targets remained the same, but where Metcalf's production dipped was in the touchdown department. DK danced into the endzone eight times over the first half of the season, but only scored two touchdowns over the latter half. Still, optimism remains from improvement out of Metcalf in 2021. Metcalf finished the 2020 season with 1,303 receiving yards, third in air yards, and still just 23 years old. Moving forward, his unique height, weight, and speed make him one of the most difficult receivers to cover in single coverage in the league.
Evaluating Tyler Lockett’s season is a little more difficult. Despite missing no games, it was clear to anyone watching that he wasn’t playing at 100%. Lockett finished the season with 100 catches, 1,054 yards, eight average targets per game, and 10 touchdowns which would appear great at first glance. Upon further investigation, roughly 47% of his total fantasy production came out of three games. Last year, he had seven touchdown catches in his first six games with a historic 15/200/3 line in the sixth game against Arizona. He did not reach 70 yards and scored just once in his next nine outings. Despite all of this, Lockett got paid. He signed a 4-year contract extension to keep Russ happy.
Another huge winner in Seattle is RB Chris Carson. While Carson may have frustrated some fantasy owners last year, he has been a model of consistency when he is in the lineup. Over the past two seasons, Carson has finished as a top-24 RB (RB2) in 20 of 27 games played, falling below that mark in just three appearances. Carson has scored 9 touchdowns in three straight years. Carson left fantasy owners disappointed last year when his carries per game dipped from 19 in 2019 to 12 in 2020. Carson had just four games out of 12 in 2020 with 15 plus carries and seven with 15 plus touches. Still, Carson tied a career high with 37 catches and had a career-best four touchdown receptions in 12 games. Carson’s return only helps Russ get his trusted RB back into the fold to help improve the team’s outlook in 2021.
Loser: Cornerback Unit
Seattle entered the 2020 season looking set at their two outside cornerback spots. Shaq Griffin and Quinton Dunbar were both coming off impressive 2019 campaigns. Now, add in the addition of Jamal Adams at safety and you would've thought this had to be a strength of the team, not a weakness. However, following injuries and regression of play, we were all sadly mistaken. Through the first half of the 2020 NFL season, the Seahawks were historically bad in pass coverage. Over that time, opponents averaged 362 passing yards per game against Seattle, by far the worst total in the league. Once key players got healthier and were able to develop a more consistent pass-rush up front, no team passed for 300 or more yards in a game against them again, including playoffs.
Both outside cornerback starters Shaq Griffin and Quinton Dunbar regressed after great 2019 seasons, and have departed via free agency. Replacing them will be former 49er Ahkello Witherspoon, fourth-rounder Tre Brown, and former Jet Pierre Desir, who was a major disappointment in 2020.
Seattle is very thin at the position and we should expect similar results to the first half of the season, rather than the second half which was good enough to let them finish at 18th best in pass coverage. Simply stated, this is one of the worst cornerback groups in the entire NFL.
Arizona Cardinals
Winner: Kyle Murray
After finishing as the fantasy football QB6 in 2020, how much can we honestly expect Kyler Murray to improve in 2021? Murray led the league in rushing touchdowns from the QB position, racking up 11. In 2021 he has the ability to match or even top that number. One reason we can expect improvement out of one of the best rushing offenses in the NFL is C Rodney Hudson. Hudson is one of, if not the best run-blocking centers in the NFL, and should help open up more rushing opportunities for Murray on an already good rush-blocking offensive line.
Starting off 2020 hotter than the Arizona desert, Murray averaged 32 fantasy points per game from weeks 1-10. However, a shoulder injury began to take a toll on him, which in turn forced his fantasy production to drop off. From weeks 11-17, he only averaged 18 points per game, as Arizona began to dial back his rushing attempts to prevent him from further hurting his shoulder.
Speaking of the rushing attack, we will see a new face in the backfield in James Conner. Kenyan Drake who started for Arizona in 2020 was allowed to walk in free agency. While Drake did have 10 touchdowns, which are now available, he struggled to get it going consistently in the rushing department, finishing with just 955 yards. Chase Edmonds simply outplayed him, averaging six yards per touch, compared to Drake's four yards per touch. Where Edmonds has excelled is scoring on screen passes outside of the red zone, scoring four touchdown receptions in 2020. Where Edmonds has not been trusted is in goal-line situations, with just one goal-line attempt in his career thus far. It remains to be seen who is the workhorse out of the Arizona backfield. Conner could fill in the early-down/goal-line role, after scoring six touchdowns last year. The issue with Conner has always been his ability to stay healthy, logging just one full season since his 2018 rookie year. If he fails to stay healthy it could mean more red-zone rushing opportunities for the speedster Murray. Murray finished the year ranked among the top three quarterbacks in the league in both scramble rushing yards (427) and designed rushing yards (395).
Murray could take a big step forward in his passing statistics following the addition of second-round lightning in the form of Rondale Moore. Moore is quick after the catch and hard to bring down in the open field. At just 5’7", Moore has struggled to stay on the field throughout his college career. He has just seven college games played in 2019 and 2020. In 2018, his freshman season he was electric with 1,258 yards, 12 touchdowns, and 213 rushing yards. While Moore can be a big boost to Murray, the other free agent acquisition has to make us wonder how much playtime he will get.
Veteran AJ Green signed with Arizona this offseason after a disappointing 2020 in Cincinnati. Green finished with just 47 catches on 104 targets, 523 yards, and just two touchdowns. With Larry Fitzgerald mulling retirement, Arizona may give a bigger role to the inconsistent Christian Kirk. Fitzgerald leaves 409 yards and one touchdown available for Arizona pass catchers. Kirk will slide back into his natural slot role where he has excelled in his college playing days if he can beat out Moore. Kirk has left a lot of big plays on the field and finished 2020 with just 48 receptions, 621 yards, and six touchdowns.
DeAndre Hopkins closed out the 2020 season with 1,407 yards, which was good for third-most in the NFL. Hopkins finished with 115 receptions which were second-most last season. Arizona strangely used Hopkins on comeback and slant routes more than we would have hoped for. D-Hop had just six touchdowns and an average of nine yards per catch, which is his career-low. If the air raid is fully implemented, instead of a horizontal attack, we can see D-Hop and Murray team up to finish as the fantasy football WR1 and QB1 overall.
Loser: Cornerback Unit
Entering the 2021 offseason, cornerback was the most pressing need for the Cardinals. Veteran Patrick Peterson left via free agency, who struggled himself after serving a PED suspension. Arizona's starting cornerbacks are Malcolm Butler, Robert Alford, and Byron Murphy. Simply put, that may be one of the bottom-3 units entering the 2021 season. This is a good thing for the offense, as this defense will give up points, and force Arizona to play at a faster pace of play.
Arizona retained LB Markus Golden (13 sacks) and acquired edge rusher, JJ Watt. Arizona is weak at defensive tackle but strong at safety and edge rusher. A clear pass funnel defense, Arizona must get pressure on opposing teams' quarterbacks, as they blitz at the fourth-highest rate in the NFL. The risk in implementing this strategy is that it leaves the corners in one on one coverage which bleeds out big plays to the opposing team's receivers. Arizona will struggle to cover anyone in the 2021 season.
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