NFC North | Offseason Biggest Winners and Losers
- theoptimaltake
- Jun 18, 2021
- 9 min read
Updated: Jun 21, 2021
Winners
Losers
Minnesota Vikings
Winner: Dalvin Cook
Dalvin Cook emerged as a clear winner following the 2021 NFL Draft. Cook is as talented as any top-tier running back in the NFL and could have surpassed 2,000 yards total last year had he not missed two games with injury. Cook still set career bests in rushing yards (1,557), touchdowns (17), and touches (356). Dalvin Cook is a big play just waiting to happen. He has ripped off a run of 70+ yards in each of the last three seasons. With the addition of LT Christian Darrisaw out of Virginia Tech and G Wyatt Davis out of Ohio State, Cook will finally have a stone wall to create running lanes for him and provide Kirk Cousins the much-needed time he needs in order to succeed.
The return of injured studs LB Anthony Barr, DT Michael Pierce, E Daniel Hunter, and CB/S Patrick Peterson should provide the Vikings with a more advantageous field position. Dalvin Cook should in turn be put in more situations with shorter field position, which will equal more red zone opportunities for the 3-down workhorse back. If there's a knock on Cook, it's his inability to stay healthy enough to play 16 games a season. However, that's not close enough to knock him out of being an obvious top-three pick in fantasy leagues. The arrow is pointing up for Dalvin Cook and the Vikings in 2021.
Loser: Kirk Cousins
Kirk Cousins kind of gets a bad rap because of the hefty contract he signed with the Vikings and the boatload of guaranteed money he takes up. Cousins has struggled to play outdoors, only winning one game in nature's element during his past five seasons as a starter in Minnesota. We can also nitpick his prime-time record as he has gone 8-16 straight up in his 23 prime-time games. As the Vikings starter, he is just 1-9 under the bright lights, and it gets even worse when you look at his road games in prime-time. Cousins is 4-7-1 ATS in his 11 prime-time games that have been on the road. He also has a horrendous 3-16 regular-season record against teams entering the game with a winning record. However, even with all that being said, Cousins is coming off a great statistical season in which he threw for 4,265 yards, 35 touchdowns, and just 13 interceptions. He has also made the divisional round in two of his three years as a starter for Minnesota.
Cousins is on a short leash following the selection of QB Kellen Mond by the Vikings in the 2021 NFL Draft. The window of opportunity for this group is running out. Cousins cannot afford to start off slow. This team has a backup who, with proper grooming, can take over the starting role at a moments notice if they feel like Cousins can’t get the job done.
Green Bay Packers
Winner: Aaron Jones
Disclaimer for those reading this, Aaron Jones is only a winner if Aaron Rodgers is under center come Week 1. As fantasy football analysts, we can only go off current situations, and as it stands, Aaron Jones by our estimation was one the biggest beneficiaries of the Packers this off-season.
Re-signing with the Packers this off-season, Jones lands in a familiar spot where he hopes to top off a monster 2020 season with an even more impressive 2021 campaign. Jones's combined totals rushing and receiving yards went for 1,459, along with 11 touchdowns. He did this while missing two games, making it even more impressive to have accomplished those numbers in just 14 games. One of the most obvious reasons we project him to provide us with better numbers in 2021 is the departure of Jamaal Williams. Williams was a thorn to Jones's fantasy owners, taking away 505 rushing yards and 3 total touchdowns. While those numbers won’t blow you away, Williams' departure should allow Jones more opportunities on third down, which he has shown chemistry with present starting QB Aaron Rodgers. AJ Dillon will slide into backup duties and doesn't appear to threaten Jones in the reception department as he has just 2 career catches at the NFL level and just 23 total over his college career.
Injuries altered the Packers’ offensive line at a crucial time last season. They went into the regular-season finale and playoffs with a new left tackle after David Bakhtiari tore his ACL. Depth is equally as important as starters when these types of situations arise. Bakhtiari enters 2021 healthy and will be a key piece to Jones and the Packers overall success. The Packers depth will be put to the test this season following the departure of C Corey Linsley who signed with the Chargers this off-season. The Packers selected Ohio State C Josh Myers who could start for them. Fourth-round T Royce Newman also provides the Packers insurance if Bakhtiari is not ready to start the season.
Loser: Aaron Rodgers
If you're a Packers fan, you have to feel a little remorse after having 26 seasons with Aaron Rodgers and Brett Farve, yet only two Lombardi trophies to show for it.
Aaron “Angry” Rodgers went on a revenge tour in 2020, determined to prove his critics wrong. He wanted to show the front office folks how wrong they were when they decided to draft Jordan Love. Rodgers proved he had more in the tank than expected, finishing the season with 4,229 yards, 44 touchdowns, and just 5 interceptions. Green Bay burned a bridge with their star by not notifying him that they planned on selecting his future successor in the 2020 NFL Draft. Money isn’t the issue here, it’s about respect and inclusion on team matters. Rodgers just wanted the same respect that other organizations such as Tampa Bay, Minnesota, and even Chicago gave their starting quarterbacks prior to selecting their backups. The Packers did select Clemson slot WR Amari Rodgers in the third round who was compared to former Packers stand-out Randall Cobb. WR Devin Funchess also returns after opting out last season and will battle with MVS and Allen Lazard for the No. 2 role on the Packers.
Mulling retirement and rumored to be trying to force his way out of Green Bay regardless of the outcome, the Aaron Rodgers drama that has unfolded has to make Packers fans feel uncomfortable heading into 2021. If Rodgers stays, we can comfortably slide Davante Adams and Aaron Jones into our top two rounds of fantasy drafts. However, if he leaves, it would severely impact the overall outlook of both their fantasy and real-life expectations. This will be a situation to monitor all summer.
Detroit Lions
Winner: Amon-Ra St. Brown
2020 was a strange year, but perhaps nothing was more bizarre than newly appointed Detroit Lions HC Dan Campbell’s pressure conference in which he stated that he wanted his players to “bite off players' knee caps.” Honestly, either that or him saying he wanted to purchase a Lion to bring to his team's practices to motivate his players.
With the Lions electing not to re-sign former starters Kenny Golladay, Marvin Jones, and Danny Amendola, a total of 289 receptions are up for grabs, along with a league-high 360 vacant targets. WR Quinton Cephus will return with newly acquired outside WRs Tyrell Williams and Breshad Perriman. Over 59% of their targets (394) and a staggering 72.4% of the Lions' air yards (3,519) are up for grabs entering 2021. One player who can cash in on this opportunity is third-round slot WR Amon-Ra St. Brown out of USC.
Newly acquired starting QB Jared Goff has had a propensity to target slot receivers, just look up the career stats of Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods. Both of those players consistently posted near or at top-12 fantasy football production. St. Brown seems geared to be the next man up for Detroit and Goff. We also want to point out that St. Brown is not just written up in this article because of opportunity, he is a very talented player who slipped in the draft. In 2020, the USC receiver stepped it up a notch, finally becoming a WR1. He led the Pac-12 in receptions, 41 for 478 yards, and finished third in total touchdowns with seven.
Loser: Jared Goff
At this point of his career, we can pinpoint situations where Jared Goff will succeed and where he will falter. How much of his success was attributed to himself versus offensive mastermind Sean McVay? In his rookie season under Jeff Fisher, Goff’s record was 0-7 and he looked utterly lost. Where Goff struggles is under pressure, ranking 30th out of a possible 40 quarterbacks.
Luckily for Goff and the Lions, the offensive line, on paper, appears to be one of the team's few strengths entering the 2021 season. Penei Sewell will keep the pocket clean and the new offensive coordinator will transition the Lions' philosophy from a deep ball offense to a run-first, short to intermediate throwing unit. Goff can perform well in these situations when playing in a dome with a very controlled environment. However, Goff's lack of mobility and lack of true bonafide weapons aside from TJ Hockenson will cap Goff’s fantasy upside.
Division and Weather: Playing Green Bay and Chicago in the elements is not something the California native Jared Goff will be looking forward to given his past results. Since entering the league, Goff has played two games in weather under 30 degrees. In those two games, he has a combined 34.5 passer rating, 47.2% completion rate, zero touchdowns, five interceptions, and an average of 190.5 passing yards. His stats in games under 40 degrees and outdoors have been similarly poor.
Chicago Bears
Winner: Allen Robinson
Year after year, Ryan Pace and Bears fans have had to sit back and imagine what could have been if they had drafted Patrick Mahomes or Deshaun Watson instead of Mitchell Trubisky. While the Bears have made the playoffs in two out of the last three seasons, it was largely in part to the team's dominant defensive unit. The fate of this franchise's future can be changed if they finally nailed the quarterback position in this year’s draft.
If there’s one person that serves to benefit the most from the Fields addition, it’s WR Allen Robinson, who has been cursed with mediocre quarterbacks for his entire NFL career. When you look at what Robinson was able to accomplish with the likes of Mitchell Trubisky, Nick Foles, and Blake Bortles, you can’t help but wonder how much better he could be with a good, or dare we say, a great quarterback in Justin Fields. Allen Robinson still managed to post impressive numbers, catching 102 passes for 1,250 yards last season. While Andy Dalton may be a below-average quarterback, he may sadly be the best quarterback Robinson has ever played with. The selection of Justin Fields helps both Robinson's upside and his floor. If Fields hits his rookie ceiling, Robinson could be a top-five fantasy wide receiver. Robinson has earned at least 150 targets in each of the past four seasons that he's played 16 games.
During his career, Robinson has accomplished 20 WR1 fantasy weeks and 18 WR2 weeks. He has played in 88 games throughout his career and only has 35 games where he ranked outside of the top-36 at his position. He has been a target hog as well, earning a 22% target share this past season. Excluding Robinson’s 2017 season when he tore his ACL, he only has one season with less than 1,000 air yards. He has a 12 yards aDOT to date on his career.
Loser: David Montgomery
If you had David Montgomery on your fantasy football team in 2020, congratulations chances are you made it pretty far in your league's playoffs. In dynasty leagues, we would advise you to contact everyone in your league and throw out some trade offers because he is screaming regression after getting CMC-like usage.
When Tarik Cohen tore his ACL back in the 4th quarter of Chicago’s Week 3 game, it made a huge impact on David Montgomery. Despite not being the most efficient running back, when it comes to the passing game, Tarik Cohen demanded volume. From 2017-2019, Cohen shared the Chicago backfield each year, twice with Jordan Howard and once with David Montgomery. His target totals from those seasons are as follows: 71, 89, and 104. Numbers don’t lie. Last season, 41.3% of Monty’s fantasy points came from receiving, totaling 109.8 points. If he were to lose 60% percent of that, he drops from the PPR overall RB4 to RB15. With Cohen getting hurt and Montgomery getting just about the best schedule you could ask for to end the season, it seems like the perfect storm was created. Montgomery scored just one rushing touchdown before Chicago’s Week 11 bye, and scored seven from Week 12 on. It also helps that he faced Green Bay twice, Detroit, Houston, Minnesota, and Jacksonville.
Don’t Sleep on Damien Williams. Williams has familiarity with Matt Nagy from time spent together in Kansas City. It wouldn’t be a shock if he outright beat him out for the starting role. The schedule on paper doesn’t seem to do any favors for Monty in 2021 either. Chicago faces some of the best rushing defenses in the NFL in San Francisco, Baltimore, New York Giants, Cleveland, Los Angeles Rams, Seattle, and Tampa Bay in 2021.
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