NFC South | Offseason Biggest Winners and Losers
- theoptimaltake
- Jul 1, 2021
- 6 min read
Winners
Losers
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Winner: Gio Bernard
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers were a revolving door at the running back position. We saw both Ronald Jones and LeSean McCoy get opportunities before Leonard Fournette secured the job on a historic playoff game stretch. One thing that's important to remember is that Tom Brady has leaned on pass-catching backs throughout the entirety of his career. Entering the 2021 season, Giovani Bernard’s arrival to the Buccaneers makes it even harder to put any trust into Leonard Fournette or Ronald Jones in fantasy football. Bernard joins a crowded backfield that also includes sophomore Ke'Shawn Vaughn. Bernard spent the first eight seasons of his career in Cincinnati, catching at least 30 passes in each season, including 47 for 355 yards and three touchdowns in 2020.
Prior to Fournette's playoff stretch, there wasn't a whole lot of room for both running backs to thrive. While the tandem combined for 1,345 rushing yards, 13 touchdowns, and 398 receiving yards on 64 receptions (89 targets), the addition of Bernard further clouds who will gain Brady’s trust. Bernard has averaged 6.3 yards per target with a 74.8% catch rate for his career. He finds himself in the perfect landing spot, able to provide a significant upgrade in that department over Fournette and Jones.
Loser: The rest of the NFL
As literally everyone from the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2020 season makes a return in 2021, we will see early on if Super Bowl hangovers exist. One thing is for sure, betting against Tom Brady isn’t optimal. As long as the Bucs stay healthy we have every reason to believe they have a shot to return to the Super Bowl next season.
Carolina Panthers
Winner: Sam Darnold
First, let's get this out of the way. Fantasy owners are immediately rewarded by having a healthy CMC return to the lineup this season. Having a running back who has a 3-down workload, goal-line work, no competition, and the ability to rush and receive over 1,000 yards and finish with anywhere between 80-90 catches is a benefactor to everyone. With that being said, time will tell if the Panthers made the right decision in their quest to find a franchise quarterback with the acquisition of Sam Darnold. Regardless of whether we think Darnold has the “it” factor, he is presented with his best opportunity of success entering the 2021 season. Darnold gets an upgrade in coaching, wide receivers, running back, defense, and offensive line.
Questions remain until we see it live in action, but the chemistry between Sam Darnold and former Jet Robby Anderson is undeniable. The two connected on eight touchdowns in their last stint together in New York. DJ Moore is an impressive young talent entering his age 23 season and has gone for 1,000+ receiving yards in his first two seasons. CMC is an absolute force to be reckoned with, and second-round rookie Terrance Mitchell enters 2021 with plenty of talent to form one of the most talented trios of wide receivers in the NFL.
If Darnold fails, the Panthers are still in a position to make a move for a quarterback next season, but for this up-and-coming year, Darnold enters 2021 as a fantasy QB2 with QB1 upside, based on matchups and the weapons at his disposal.
Loser: One Of The Panthers WRs
While the Panthers' wide receivers last season all went for over 1,000 yards, they had a hard time converting passes into touchdowns. While Anderson, Moore, and Mitchell are all immensely talented, it may be difficult for all three to pay off their draft capital without an injury to one or more players. Darnold has had spurts of games where he has flirted with over 300 yards and multiple touchdowns, but consistency and injuries have derailed him throughout his career.
Robby Anderson has pre-developed chemistry with Darnold but enters 2021 in a contract year, so there is no clear way to know if he will be used as the No. 1 option or phased out for future weapons like Moore or Mitchell. Even though he produced almost identical numbers to Moore, Anderson is being drafted 40 picks after him in early off-season drafts. Moore had a solid year but was better in his rookie year when playing in the slot. It will be interesting to take note of where the Panthers choose to line him up as Darnold has thrown to slot wide receivers in his career more than any other weapon on the field. Moore also enters 2021 as a free agent but has franchise tag eligibility. It is something to monitor as we enter drafts as he is being drafted as a WR2 but has WR1 upside.
While all three receivers possess immense talent it’s difficult to project their numbers given Darnold's limitations. Accurately predicting which receiver will break out given the value at where they are being drafted can either win or lose you your fantasy league. Remember, in season-long fantasy football leagues we are looking for consistency, whereas in best-ball and DFS we are looking for ceiling game performances based upon matchups and one-week winning talent to carry your teams in tournaments.
New Orleans Saints
Winner: Michael Thomas/Adam Trautman
Michael Thomas burned a lot of people last season in fantasy football. After a 2019 season in which he caught a record-setting 149 receptions, he followed that up with 0 regular-season touchdowns and missed a total of nine games due to injuries and punching a teammate in the face. With the retirement of Drew Brees, we must ponder about who will now be the starting quarterback for the Saints. Will it be Jameis Winston or Taysom Hill? How will this change at quarterback affect Michael Thomas?
HC Sean Peyton may have given us a clue about who may be starting at quarterback when he suggested to beat reporters that the team will "lean heavily on the run in the early part of the schedule.” That could be an indication that Taysom Hill may get the job.
In his career, Thomas has played only nine games without QB Drew Brees. Five of those games were with Teddy Bridgewater in 2019 and four of those games were with Taysom Hill in 2020. Not the largest sample size but enough to garner enough data off of. In five games with Bridgewater starting, Thomas averaged 23 PPR fantasy points. With Taysom Hill starting, he averaged 16 PPR fantasy points. He also commanded a 20%+ target share which is elite territory. These are all good indicators that he can still perform at a high level with or without Drew Brees under center. The Saints also have very little competition surrounding him in terms of wide receivers, keeping him the focal point in the passing game along with RB Alvin Kamara. Tre'Quan Smith has lacked consistency, and it’s unclear what we have in Deonte Harris and Lil'Jordan Humphrey. Also, the departures of Emmanuel Sanders and Jared Cook should help funnel more targets Thomas's way.
Since 2016, Jameis Winston has produced top-10 fantasy wide receiver production out of several of his weapons
* 2016 | Mike Evans WR3
* 2018 | Mike Evans WR9
* 2019 | Chris Godwin WR2
While Winston has been plagued by turnovers, much of that has to do with the deep ball, no-risk-it-no-biscuit offense that Bruce Arians implements in Tampa Bay. As we saw in the regular season, and in the playoff game vs Green Bay, Tom Brady also threw more interceptions than usual. Tampa Bay's defense was also very young and raw and put Winston in negative game script situations. However, all was not totally lost. Winston averaged over 19 fantasy points per week during his insane 5,000 yard passing season in 2019. He also threw for 30 touchdowns and 30 interceptions.
In addition to Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara, we can expect huge production out of sophomore TE Adam Trautman, who has some serious 2021 fantasy sleeper potential in the post-Drew Brees era. Jared Cook's 60 targets and Taysom Hills' 10 targets will be available at the tight end spot. There are also Emmanuel Sanders’ 82 vacant targets that will now be up for grabs. While Trautman struggled to find playing time as a rookie after coming from a small school like Dayton, the 6’5, 255-pound stud is oozing with fantasy upside. He is going very late in early fantasy drafts but could be this year’s, Logan Thomas.
Loser: Depth at WR
The Saints experienced life without Brees last season, giving Taysom Hill the opportunity to start four games when their franchise quarterback was out with fractured ribs. Hill completed 72% of his passes for 834 yards with four passing touchdowns and two interceptions while rushing 39 times for 209 yards (5 yards per carry) with four touchdowns in those four games. Hill recorded a 96.9 passer rating in his four starts, as the Saints went 3-1 during that stretch. Predicting who wins out the starting QB job will be pivotal for the fantasy stars Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara. Due to salary cap restrictions, the Saints were unable to retain DT Sheldon Rankins (Jets), CB Janoris Jenkins (Titans), and DE Trey Hendrickson (Bengals).
After nailing countless draft picks, finding undrafted free agents, and navigating around the cap, this past draft the Saints decided to try and fill their defensive holes by selecting edge rushers, linebackers, and cornerbacks. Given the departure of Sanders and Cook, the Saints must now hope the youngsters they have available can step up. The Saints could have selected Rondale Moore, Elijah Moore, and even Terrance Mitchell in the second round but elected not to. Time will tell if they made the right decision as they try to rebuild while capitalizing on the team's Super Bowl window.
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