Fantasy Fallout of the Julio Jones Trade
- theoptimaltake
- Jun 11, 2021
- 9 min read
Winners:
Losers:
Sleepers:
Why did the Falcons trade Julio Jones? He's arguably the face of the franchise and a sure-ballot Hall of Fame candidate. Plus, with the selection of Kyle Pitts in the 2021 NFL Draft, the Falcons were looking like real contenders heading into this season. Yet, it all boils down to one thing: money. The new Falcons GM, Terry Fontenot, inherited a roster with three players whose salaries add up to $71M: Matt Ryan, Calvin Ridley, and Julio Jones. To put that into perspective, the Falcons entered this off-season with 35% of their salary cap tied up in just three players. Up until this moment, the Falcons were unable to give out contracts to any of the draft picks they selected. Despite averaging 26 points per game, the Falcons' hands were tied behind their backs, and they could barely address the glaring needs in the off-season. By trading away Julio Jones and his $23.5M contract, the Falcons save $15.3M towards the cap this season.
Heads rolled at the thought of a team offering a first-round pick for a 32-year old injury-prone wide receiver, but it is, after all, Julio Jones we're talking about. So why did the Falcons only get a second-round pick in exchange for the stud receiver? The answer again is money. The optics don't look great, the Falcons received a second-round pick for Mohamed Sanu and they traded away a third and fifth-round pick for Hayden Hurst. However, the Falcons had to settle for a second-round pick when it came to Julio. The Falcons had no leverage once teams learned that Julio was on the way out. Teams realized that the marriage was broken and the Falcons had no way of affording Jones at his current contract. The Titans themselves also had salary cap issues, but Ryan Tannehill and Derrick Henry are rumored to restructure their contracts to bring Jones to Tennessee.
But seriously, the Titans? Julio, why? On the shortlist of demands Julio Jones listed was the desire to go to a franchise that has a quarterback capable of throwing the deep ball. So, again, why Tennessee? The Titans hand the ball off to Derrick Henry and never throw the ball deep, right? Incorrect. Ryan Tannehill had a lot of success when throwing the deep ball over the last two seasons. Sure, the Titans aren't chucking the football downfield often, but when they do, they've been pretty impressive. Once Tannehill took over as the starter in 2019, even with a very low rate of 20+ yards per throw, he completed 30 of 53 passes for 865 yards, 584 air yards, seven touchdowns, and one interception, with a passer rating of 134.6, which led the NFL. Tannehill did so while throwing into tight coverage on 19.6% of his total passes, the sixth-highest in the NFL. In 2020 Tannehill regressed quite a bit in the number of deep balls thrown, but still posted good stats when called upon doing so. He posted a 100.9 passer rating, a 5:2 TD-to-INT ratio on deep throws, but totaled just 514 yards (last in NFL) in those attempts. Most of those throws were thrown to A.J. Brown, and with the addition of Julio, we may see more deep passing opportunities become available.
Biggest Winners
1. Kyle Pitts
The hype on Kyle Pitts is perhaps the craziest we have ever witnessed entering a season, maybe ever? Historically, rookie tight ends have not delivered upon these lofty expectations. Just two rookie tight ends have cracked the top-10 fantasy football charts since 2010 (Rob Gronkowski and Evan Engram). To be fair, few tight ends will have the opportunity Kyle Pitts will come the start of the 2021 season.
In current Best Ball and early Fantasy Football drafts, we are seeing Kyle Pitts go as early as the 6th tight end off the board. Is that kind of hype warranted? As crazy as it sounds, it just might be. This off-season, Atlanta took the smallest of strides to upgrade its already poor defense. Last season, with a similarly graded defense, Atlanta passed at one of the highest rates in the NFL. The future is looking bright for Kyle Pitts as new offensive-minded head coach Arthur Smith takes over Atlanta, a coach who has previously made tight ends the focal point of his offense. Let's not ignore the success Jonnu Smith had under Smith which landed him a huge contract in New England this off-season. In split time, Smith had 48 receptions for 488 yards and eight touchdowns.
As Julio Jones exits, we can see Kyle Pitts sliding into the No. 2 role on a team that will be forced to pass at an alarmingly high rate. Selfishly, we were rooting for Jones to stick around in Atlanta, making this offense a three-headed monster that would give defensive coordinators nightmares. Regardless of what we want or what could have been, Pitts' height, weight, and speed teamed up with Calvin Ridley still makes this duo one of the best young tandems in the NFL. We had him projected for about 90 targets prior to the trade, but now we can see him finishing in the 115-120 target range. No other NFL tight end has seen those kinds of targets except for Travis Kelce and Darren Waller who both finished with 145.
2. Julio Jones
Matt Ryan and Julio Jones have had unprecedented success in their ten years together in Atlanta. In their ten seasons together, Ryan has thrown Julio’s way for 12,744 yards and 60 touchdowns. During that same stretch, Matt Ryan has never thrown for under 4,000 yards.
At 32 years old, Julio proved he still has gas in the tank, finishing off the 2020 season with 51 catches, 771 yards, three touchdowns, 15.1 yards per reception (tied for No. 15), and 2.6 yards per route run (No. 4). Only Davante Adams (2.96), Justin Jefferson (2.66), and A.J. Brown (2.65) were more efficient on a per route basis. In his career, Jones has averaged 96 yards per game which is the single highest total for any wide receiver in NFL history.
If teams try to take away Derrick Henry with eight defenders in the box and three defenders on the outside, Julio Jones will erupt. According to ESPN's next-gen stats, over the past five seasons, Jones has 634 receiving yards, which is 163 more than any other wide receiver in the NFL. Jones has also averaged 4.7 yards per route run which is best in the NFL. The Falcons faced eight in the box on 12.5% of their snaps last season. It doesn’t appear life will get easier for defensive coordinators if they choose to go with lighter defensive fronts.
3. Calvin Ridley
The Julio Jones trade will improve the sky-high ceiling of Calvin Ridley. With Julio in the lineup, Ridley finished last season as the PPR overall WR 5.
* Average depth of target: 15.2 [8th-most among wide receivers].
* 65.7% catch rate, only D.K. Metcalf had a better catch rate (66.9%) among the wide receivers with top-15 average depth of targets.
* 37 red-zone targets [5th-most among wide receivers].
* 22.7% target share, even with Julio playing nine games.
Over the past three seasons, when Jones and Ridley were in the lineup together, Ridley has averaged seven targets, four receptions, and 61 yards per game. Unsurprisingly, Ridley has excelled with Jones out of the lineup. In 16 career games without Jones on the field, Ridley has had 116 receptions on 178 targets, 1,712 yards, and six touchdowns. Post the Julio trade, Ridley will be firmly engraved into top-tier wide receiver territory.
4. Mike Davis
Todd Gurley's tenure in Atlanta wasn’t exactly what his fantasy owners hoped for. Now, Mike Davis will take over as the starter in Atlanta. Davis was given the starting opportunity last season when legendary Christian McCaffrey suffered a slew of injuries throughout the course of the season. Davis was putting up CMC-like numbers. Given the offensive firepower that Atlanta has, it is not out of the question for Davis to score 8-12 touchdowns with very limited competition on the roster.
The Falcons did not spend a single selection on a running back in this year's draft, despite a depth chart containing just Davis, Cordarrelle Patterson, and Qadree Ollison. One name to note is Javian Hawkins, the talented undrafted running back out of Louisville who could be this year's James Robinson if injuries and opportunity fall in his favor.
Davis stood out when he was given the opportunity last year. Among all running backs in 2020 with at least 160+ carries, Davis trailed only Nick Chubb in missed tackles per rush. While Davis' game won’t blow you away on film, he ranked fourth in total broken tackles and 14th in yards after contact. We are certainly not comparing Mike Davis to Derrick Henry, but it is important to note that in his two seasons calling plays, Arthur Smith’s Titans ranked 10th and second in rushing attempts, third and second in rush yards, and second in rushing touchdowns both years. Davis enters 2021 as one of if not the biggest off-season running back winners.
5. Ryan Tannehill
Since the start of the 2019 season, 32 QBs have thrown at least 500 passes. Tannehill ranks second in passer rating (110.6) and TD% (7.2%), and first in yards per attempt (8.55). With 11 touchdowns on the ground over the last two seasons (seven in 2020), Tannehill has low key earned fantasy value as a runner. Six of those 11 rushing scores have been from the five-yard line or closer, so he’s vulturing Henry a little bit. Now, following the loss of OC Arthur Smith, TE Jonnu Smith, WR Adam Humphries, and WR Corey Davis, expectations entering the 2021 season appeared low for Ryan Tannehill. Falling just 16 yards short last year, Corey Davis posted very similar stats to Julio Jones, who played just half the number of games Davis did.
With the addition of Julio Jones, Tannehill becomes a sneaky late-round quarterback option. The Titans' first 5 weeks should have fantasy GMs' mouths drooling. The Titans from Weeks 1-5 draw the Cardinals, Seahawks, Colts, Jaguars, and Jets. None of those secondaries pose a threat. Tannehill will miss former OC Arthur Smith who revitalized his career. Todd Downing takes over as the offensive coordinator after working as Tennessee’s tight end coach in 2019 and 2020. He was the Raiders’ and Lions' offensive coordinator in two seasons in which we saw both teams throw the ball over 500 times. Both of those teams operated at a league-low pace, but given Tennessee defensive woes we can expect more shootouts.
6. Derrick Henry
Derrick Henry has been an unstoppable force on the field. The Titans are blessed to have him on their team, but after back-to-back seasons of 303+ carries, it might be a good time to scale back a bit on his touches out of the backfield. With Julio Jones in Tennessee, expect Henry’s role to decline a bit, though he certainly will remain a very large part of the team’s offense.
It’s safe to say just because his touches are expected to regress, it doesn’t mean he’d be less efficient. In fact, he might average more touchdowns per touch with Julio Jones taking away some attention from opposing defenses. In 2020, the Titans ranked third in rush play percentage and second in both rushing yards per play and rushing scores per game. Henry is locked and loaded depending on format to be one of the top-3/4 running backs off the board for fantasy football drafts in 2021.
7. A.J. Brown
With the departure of Corey Davis, Adam Humphries, and Jonnu Smith, the Titans have 223 available targets entering the 2021 season. In just two seasons, A.J. Brown has emerged as one of the best receivers in the NFL. You couldn't tell by the way he balled out, but Brown was battling with a serious knee injury all season. Over the span of 14 games, Brown secured 70 balls for 1,075 yards and 11 touchdowns, which led to his selection to the Pro Bowl. When facing seven defensive players in the box, AJ Brown eats deep. Last season, in these types of schemes, Brown led the league at 4.3 yards per route run, and this was pre-Julio Jones acquisition! Targets have always been the issue in Brown's career; he has seen nine or more targets a game only nine times over the course of two years. Moving forward, the addition of Julio Jones ends the pre-season hype of AJ. Brown finishing as a top 5 WR, but he is in line for a huge target share and could explode as an easy top-10 wide receiver with little to competition for targets around him except for Julio Jones.
Biggest Losers
1. Matt Ryan
Entering his age 36 season, Matt Ryan is the biggest loser following the Julio Jones trade. Ryan played in nine games with Jones either sidelined or limited to fewer than 50% of the offense's snaps in 2020. In those performances he largely struggled:
Game 1: 238 yards | 1 TD | 1 INT
Game 2: 285-0-0
Game 3: 226-0-1
Game 4: 232-0-2
Game 5: 185-2-1
Game 6: 224-1-3
Game 7: 356-3-0
Game 8: 300-2-0
Game 9: 265-2-0
Our only hope if we draft Matt Ryan is that the Falcons are bad enough on defense to force Ryan into a league-high mark in passing volume. Given the options that can be drafted around him, we believe there are better options around his draft position.
2. AFC South Defenses
Good luck trying to slow down this offense. The Jaguars and the Texans are projected to be two of the worst teams in the NFL, while the Titans have been able to put up points pre Julio.
Sleeper Options
1. Russell Gage
There should be more opportunity on the outside for late-round sleeper Russell Gage. Gage had a solid season in 2020. In eight starts (16 games played), Gage had a career-high 109 targets, 72 catches, 786 yards, and four touchdowns. Gage will now become the outside receiver opposite Calvin Ridley and should offer one of the best overall fantasy football values come draft day.
2. Anthony Firkser
If you are looking for a late-round sleeper tight end, let us introduce you to Anthony Firkser. Firkser has only started two games in his three-year career. When he did get additional playing time was when Jonnu Smith exited their Week 6 win against the Texans with an ankle injury. With TE1 duties, Firkser dominated. On nine targets, he put up 113 yards and a score on eight grabs. When he started last year, he commanded a 21.9% target share and ran 29 routes on Ryan Tannehill’s 46 dropbacks in that game.
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