New England Patriots: Offseason Wants, Needs & Preview

[Finished 7-9 Overall]

It was just about a year ago that the news of QB Tom Brady's departure flooded the market. We should've known that 2020 was going to be a wild year once that news broke. Brady moved on to seek new horizons and QB Cam Newton stepped into uncharted territory. While the move worked well for Brady, the same can't be said about Newton. One of these quarterbacks finished the season with a Lombardi Trophy and the other was questionable to return to the team.

Since 2000, the Patriots have made the playoffs 17 times. Over that same period, they've advanced to the Super Bowl 9 times and they've taken home the Lombardi Trophy 7 of those 9 times. Going into 2020, the Patriots were on an 11-season playoff streak. You know how that streak ended. The Patriots finished 2020 at 7-9. This was the first time that this team finished below .500 since 2000! That being said, do the Patriots have a chance of tasting the sweet victory of playoffs again anytime soon?

There were many things that worked against the Patriots this season, the blame is not entirely on Cam Newton. This defensive unit wrapped up the 2019 season as the best in the league by total yards per game and points allowed per game. Since then, they've fallen to 15th in total yards per game. Without making any transactions this offseason, the Patriots get back a number of elite defensive players who opted out because of COVID last season. This team had an NFL-high, eight players who opted out last season including S Patrick Chung and LB Dont'a Hightower.

Most of the band will be back together this season, but there are several other important moves the Patriots need to target this offseason. Historically, the Patriots have won on the field but off of it, they haven't been aggressive in targeting free agents. All of that changed this offseason. Heading into the legal negotiating period for free agents, the Patriots were sitting on $69M in cap space, plenty of money to get this team back into contention. Just a couple of hours into free agency, the Patriots had already spent their most guaranteed money on free agents in any offseason over the last decade.

Here are the biggest moves so far this offseason:

New:

WR Nelson Agholor [Signed a 2-year, $26M deal]

WR Kendrick Bourne [Signed a 3 year, $22.5M deal]

TE Jonnu Smith [Signed a 4-year, $50M deal that includes $31.25M guaranteed]

TE Hunter Henry [Signed a 3-year, $37.5M deal that includes $25M guaranteed]

OLB Matt Judon [Signed a 4-year, $56M deal that includes $36M guaranteed]

DT Davon Godchaux [Signed a 2-year, $16M deal that includes $9M guaranteed]

DB Jalen Mills [Signed a 4-year, $25M deal that includes $9M guaranteed]

DT Henry Anderson [Signed a 2-year, $7M deal]

Returning:

QB Cam Newton [Signed 1-year, $13.6M deal that includes $3.5M guaranteed]

DE Deatrich Wise [Signed 4-year, $30M deal that includes $10M guaranteed]

CB Justin Bethel [Signed 3-year, $6M deal that includes $2.75M guaranteed]

OT Trent Brown [Recieved as a trade from Raiders, plus a seventh-round pick]

DT Carl Davis [Terms unknown]

Out:

LG Joe Thuney [Chiefs: Signed 5-year, $80M deal that includes $46.9M guaranteed]

RT Marcus Cannon [Traded away to the Texans in a deal that includes swapping picks]

S Terrence Brooks [Texans: Signed 1-year, $2M deal]

Quarterback Needs

For the first time in two decades, this team looked different on offense. For the first time in two decades, this team is not a player or two away from the Lombardi trophy. For the first time in two decades, this team needs a complete roster overhaul on the offensive side of the ball, and that starts with the quarterback. Just a week before the official start of free agency, the Patriots re-signed QB Cam Newton to a 1-year deal worth up to $13.6M. Heads rolled at that price given the results he produced last season. However, only $3.5M of that large number is guaranteed money, the rest of the money is all made up of incentives. This offensive unit ranked as the sixth-worst in the NFL by total yards and points scored. Looking back on Newton's 2020 numbers, in 15 games, he managed a 65.8 completion percentage that was good for 2,567 yards, an 8:10 touchdown/interception ratio, and 12 rushing touchdowns. The passing attack on this offensive unit racked up just 180.6 yards per game, coming in at the third-worst in the league. It's important to note that Newton's completion percentage with the Patriots was second-best in his career, only landing behind his 2018 season when he achieved a 67.9 completion percentage. Even during his 2015 MVP year, Newton only had a 59.8 completion percentage and threw 10 interceptions. The Patriots knew what they were getting when they signed Newton, he has never been a very accurate quarterback. During his time in Carolina, Newton was throwing 10+ interceptions per season, which is pretty much on par with his results in New England. While we may not see the number of interceptions go down much, we can be optimistic about more production in the touchdown department. Prior to his time with the Patriots, Cam Newton was throwing for 18+ touchdowns per season, every season except for his last year with the Panthers.

The Patriots reportedly explored other options on the free-agent market but came to the conclusion that they could achieve better results with a quarterback who already spent a year in the system. There are many factors that worked against the offense last year that all centered around COVID. Limitations in training camp and practice, no pre-season, and player opt-outs are just a few that come to mind. The flexibility in Newton's contract also allows the Patriots to explore other options at quarterback, whether it be through the draft or in free agency. The biggest disappointment for the Patriots this season would be if Newton does not show any signs of improvement with better weapons surrounding him. Either way, improvement or not, the Patriots can shop in the quarterback market again come next season.

Wide Receiver Needs

Arguably one of the biggest reasons for Tom Brady's departure was the lack of weapons on the offensive side of the ball. No earth-shattering moves in free agency for the Patriots at wide receiver, but they did make some notable changes. Prior to March 16, the Patriots wide receiver room consisted of Julian Edelman, Jakobi Meyers, N'Keal Harry, and Damiere Byrd. Obviously, Julian Edelman was WR1 last season, but without Edelman, the Patriots had no clear WR1 or even WR2. Injury-ridden Edelman spent more time off the field than on it in 2020, he only played six games before landing on IR. This upcoming season will mark Edelman's age-35 season, and with his injury history, the Patriots need to seriously consider their options. Behind Edelman, the Patriots have Jakobi Meyers, who right now is by far the most reliable option. Meyers tallied up 59 catches for 729 yards in 2020. The most shocking line in his stat book is 0 touchdowns. Meyers has yet to score a touchdown in his career. Next up we have N'Keal Harry, a 2019 first-round pick who has not lived up to his hype. In his two seasons with the Patriots, Harry has just 414 yards and was WR101 out of 105. In 2020, he played in 14 games in which he caught 33 balls and two touchdowns. The Patriots have reportedly been shopping Harry around, but haven't received any promising offers. Last and most likely to not be joining the Patriots next season is Damiere Byrd. The receiver signed a 1-year deal last offseason and caught 47 balls for 604 yards and one touchdown. Byrd is expected to hit the free-agent market and the Patriots have shown no interest to bring him back.

That brings us to Monday, the official start of the legal tampering period before free agency. The Patriots cashed in on WR Nelson Agholor, bringing him in on a 2-year deal worth up to $26M. Agholor finished as the No. 23 fantasy wide receiver from weeks 4 through 17, racking up 44 receptions for 822 yards and seven touchdowns over that stretch. His 10.9 yards per target on the season ranked sixth among wide receivers with more than 35 targets. Not a bad option right? Agholor averaged 18.7 yards per catch during his breakout season for the Raiders. Agholor could be the speedy deep threat this offense needs. Still, the Patriots are paying a premium price for a player who hasn't consistently shown he's worth the investment. The Patriots are also bringing in WR Kendrick Bourne on a 3-year, $22.5M deal. Currently, depth charts are projecting that Bourne will be WR4 but definitely shows promising upside. Bourne is a do-it-all kind of receiver. He is a great route-runner who can play in the slot and on the outside. In San Francisco, he went from an undrafted rookie to a 5-touchdown wideout in the 2019 season. His career bests include 49 catches on 74 targets for 667 yards last season. According to Next Gen Stats, Bourne averaged 2.8 yards of separation and out-performed his yards after catch by more than a full yard on average. This should bode well for the Patriots on third down who only converted 40.7% of the time last season. The Patriots are locking up a young receiver at a reasonable price.

Tight End Needs

The biggest splash the Patriots made in free agency was the signing of TEs Jonnu Smith and Hunter Henry. The Patriots tight end room was already packed like a sardine can. However, not many people can name a single tight end that's been on the Patriots since Rob Gronkowski's departure. The production at tight end on the offense has been nonexistent the last few seasons. Prior to the signing of the latest additions at tight end, the Patriots had TEs Jakob Johnson, Matt LaCosse, Devin Asiasi, Rashod Berry, Ryan Izzo, and Dalton Keene. The best-ranked tight end in that group was Ryan Izzo at #52. The other rankings for the rest of the crew were in the 60s-70s. It was clear that this group wasn't going to cut it and the Patriots had plans to upgrade this position through either free agency or the draft. Enter TEs Jonnu Smith and Hunter Henry. Most thought that New England was done at the position once Smith was signed on March 15th, but they sent shockwaves through the realm of free agency by double-dipping in the tight end pool and grabbing Hunter Henry as well. The Patriots needed both Smith and Henry to do what they do best, the double-tight end set. Back in the old days of the Tom Brady era, the Patriots were masters of the multiple-tight end sets. Between the shuffling of Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez/Martellus Bennett or Daniel Graham and Ben Watson, the Patriots have shown that this is a technique they have perfected. Typically in this offensive scheme, one tight end is a clear "in-line" blocker, and the other is more of a nonconventional weapon that is moved around. One of the most attractive things about these two signings is that Smith and Henry can play both roles. Henry fits more of the in-line blocker role, but can also be the weapon that's moved around. Henry is a borderline wide receiver with the stats he put up last season. He tallied up 60 catches for 613 yards and four touchdowns. In more ways than one, Henry can be compared to Gronk in this scenario. With the Chargers, Henry would line up in the backfield, the slot, go in motion, and even split out wide. However, he does present some of the same injury concerns Gronk did. At 6'5" and 250 pounds, Henry has yet to play a full season. Still, he's a perfect partner for Smith. Smith is best known for his wide receiver-like size and speed, and so he will likely be the tight end that is moved around in this scheme. At the same time, Smith is also a great run-blocker, the Titans used him quite often to fake blocks before running his routes. An undeniable red zone threat, Smith will bring a new level of athleticism to the Patriots with his eight touchdowns from 2020.

Running Back Needs

Even with all of the money Billy Big Bucks has spent so far, the Patriots are not done. They still need to address the running back room. As it stands right now, RBs James White and Rex Burkhead are expected to become free agents. This means the Patriots will be left with Sony Michel, Damien Harris, Marcus Martin, Brandon Bolden, and JJ Taylor. The veterans, White and Burkhead played some good running game, but it was the younger crew that stood out for purely rushing success. Harris and Michel excelled in two advanced categories: expected points added per rush and success rate. Among backs who carried the ball at least 75 times last season, Michel ranked 6th in EPA and 12th in success rate while Harris ranked 10th in EPA and 6th in success rate. One glaring concern for the Patriots in the running back room is that they need backs who can not only run the ball but can catch the ball and score touchdowns. Harris was the Patriots' lead running back, accounting for 137 carries for 691 yards, but only two touchdowns. Michel carried the ball 79 times for 449 yards and only one touchdown. Once upon a time, Michel exploded for 336 yards and six rushing touchdowns on 71 carries in the postseason. The Patriots will be losing their pass-catching backs to free agency, while Harris and Michel caught a combined 14 balls for 166 yards last season. Yikes! Michel, a 2018 first-round pick is under contract this year, but the Patriots will have to make a decision whether or not they want to pick up the 5th-year option by May 3. This is an unlikely scenario given that Michel's production right now puts him behind the likes of Devin Singletary, Carlos Hyde, Adrian Peterson, and Leonard Fournette. His 5th-year option won't break the bank, but there are more attractive options the Patriots can target through free agency or the draft. Bring in a pass-catching back!

Offensive Line Needs

One of the main reasons that Patriots running backs had so much success running the ball was because of how good the offensive line was. According to Pro Football Focus's year-end rankings, the Patriots' offensive line finished as the fourth-best in the league last season. Being good in the trenches is where it matters, and the Patriots showed that they can win with their offensive line talent. PFF's Wins Above Replacement (WAR) metric ranked this offensive unit as the best in the league. Rookie Michael Onwenu put on an impressive performance as a top-10 tackle in the NFL by PFF grade. The rest of the line consisted of Isaiah Wynn, Justin Herron, Joe Thuney, David Andrews, Shaq Mason, and Jermaine Eleumunor. The Patriots lost a big component of their offensive line to free agency. LG Joe Thuney has signed with the Chiefs on a huge $80M deal. RT Marcus Cannon has been traded away to the Texans in exchange for a swap of late-round picks in the upcoming draft. The Patriots are bringing back the massive 6'8", 380-pound OT Trent Brown in a trade from the Raiders. Given Brown's successful year with the Patriots back in 2018, he will likely be a starter, capable of playing both left and right tackle. C David Andrews is also a free agent, but the Patriots have expressed interest in bringing Andrews back. So far though, the initial offer to Andrews doesn't have him putting ink to paper. Even with all of the recent signings, the Patriots still have a good amount of money left in the bank to make it a priority to preserve the talent on this offensive line. If Onwenu continues to develop and Andrews returns, this unit can be impressive again come 2021, especially if Wynn is healthy at full strength.

Defensive Line Needs

The Patriots have already addressed most of their defensive needs through free agency. Coming into the 2021 offseason, New England's top three interior defensive linemen - Lawrence Guy, Adam Butler, and Deatrich Wise Jr. - were all set for free agency. Wise has been brought back on a 4-year, $30M deal. Through his first four seasons in the NFL, Wise has been a solid pro with the optimism of growing in the system. Wise is known as a leader in the locker room, a player who uplifts his teammates. Wise fits best as a 4-3 defensive end but has the versatility to play in different spots. It will be up to the defensive coaching staff to put him in a position where he can succeed. The Patriots have also re-signed DT Carl Davis. The Patriots acquired Davis in 2020 from the Jacksonville Jaguars practice squad. He only played three games with the Patriots and struggled with concussion issues for most of the season. At a low cost, Davis showed potential in his brief time on the field. With the additions of DTs Davon Godchaux and Henry Anderson, it is unlikely that Butler and Guy will be returning to New England. At 26 years old, Godchaux provides youth and opportunity for improvement at defensive tackle. However, this team is counting on a full recovery for the young player coming off of a season-ending injury that limited him to just five games in 2020. The Patriots are very familiar with Godchaux, after all, they've competed against him for the past four seasons. In 2019, Godchaux had a career year in which he made 75 combined tackles, four of which were for a loss. Godchaux has also shown upside in pass-rushing capabilities, tallying up two sacks and seven quarterback hits. Anderson, the former Jet, is another player that this organization is familiar with. At 6'6", 301 pounds, Anderson is another player that is expected to improve the awful rush defense. Anderson just finished his sixth year in the NFL and is coming off a season in which he set career highs, finishing with 42 tackles in 2020. Although he had just 1.5 sacks over the last two seasons with the Jets, he did total seven sacks with 16 quarterback hits in 2018. Over the course of his six years in the NFL, Anderson has logged a total of 11.5 sacks, 44 quarterback hits, and 167 combined tackles. The Patriots will have plenty of competition for the starting role along their defensive front.

Linebacker Needs

The linebacker corps is looking strong for the Patriots. With veteran, LB Dont'a Hightower expected to return following a COVID opt-out and the addition of OLB Matt Judon, this unit is going to be elite next season. Judon is a physical edge player who will work well when paired with Hightower. Judon is a 28-year old, two-time Pro Bowler who spent the last five years with the Ravens. The Patriots are getting a reliable player who has appeared in 14 or more games every year of his career since being selected in the fifth round of the 2016 NFL Draft. Two seasons ago he forced four fumbles. Last season, Judon had six sacks, but he is not a typical pass-rusher. Thankfully, he will be under a great coaching unit that will be able to scheme up the right routes for him to be successful. The Patriots were depleted at linebacker last season with the departures of Kyle Van Noy, Elandon Roberts, Jamie Collins, and the opt-out of Hightower. Aside from these two, the current group of linebackers that the Patriots consists of Chase Winovich, Josh Uche, Ja'Whaun Bentley, Anfernee Jennings, Terez Hall, Rashod Berry, Cassh Maluia, Brandon King, and Michael Pinckney. The Patriots should be in good shape at linebacker especially if Winovich and Uche can take that next leap forward this coming season.

Secondary Needs

The secondary was not a glaring need for the Patriots, but given the potential departure of Stephon Gilmore, the Patriots needed to bring someone in. The current cornerback roster is filled with Stephon Gilmore, JC Jackson (restricted free-agent), Jonathan Jones, Joejuan Williams, Myles Bryant, Justin Bethel, Mike Jackson, Dee Virgin, D'Angelo Ross, and now Jalen Mills. Jason McCourty is eligible for free agency and is not expected to be brought back. There are many unknowns surrounding Stephon Gilmore - will he get paid or will he get traded? Given his age, injury history, and the money that he commands, the latter is more likely. This is why the Patriots brought in Mills. The 26-year-old was a seventh-round pick in the 2016 NFL Draft. He's been with the eagles for the last 5 years. Mills was an attractive option for the Patriots given that he can play both cornerback and strong safety. He is a versatile player, something the Patriots have been known to go after. Mills has battled some injuries, only appearing in 17 combined games over the 2018-2019 seasons. However, last year, he suited up for 15 games, caught one interception, and forced one fumble. The Patriots have Devin McCourty, Patrick Chung, Adrian Phillips, and Kyle Dugger at safety. S Cody Davis is eligible to venture into free agency this offseason. The Patriots secondary is getting older, McCourty and Chung are 33, while Phillips is 28. The young cornerback/safety hybrid brings some youth to this unit at a time when they need it.

Too Long Didn't Read Version

The 48-hour legal tampering period prior to the start of the NFL Free Agency kicked off at 12 PM on Monday, March 15th. Not even an hour into this period, HC Bill Belichick was already spending big money on TE Jonnu Smith. The Patriots came into the offseason with plenty of money, but no one thought they'd spend the way they did. Fans and analysts alike predicted that the Patriots would be rebuilding for years to come. Yeah right. Belichick came out firing, filling the glaring holes in every department. What was expected to take years to fix was addressed in less than 48 hours. The defensive unit is the most solid going into next season, but there is plenty of upside on the offense, especially based on how last season had gone. Putting the right pieces around QB Cam Newton will help him get the ball out of his hands quickly and hopefully put the Patriots on the path to success for the future, or at the bare minimum, at least for the 2021 season.