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Minnesota Vikings: Offseason Wants, Needs & Preview

Updated: Apr 18, 2021

Opening Lines:

  • Super Bowl Odds: +4,000 (40:1)

  • NFC Championship Winners: +2,000 (20:1)

  • NFC North Division Winners: +400 (4:1)

  • Win Total: 8.5, -110 (0.91:1)

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2020 Recap:


The COVID-19 pandemic took a toll on every team in the NFL. The lack of training camp put multiple inexperienced players on defense at a disadvantage in their starting roles. Various injuries and free-agent departures put this team into a mini-rebuild mode following their playoff appearance in 2019. Just one season removed from a 10-6 record, expectations were high for Minnesota entering 2020. Stefon Diggs was sent to Buffalo and the Vikings drafted Justin Jefferson to fill his shoes. Plus, the whole secondary was filled with fresh faces and rookies. The communication between players was an issue and by the time they adjusted, it was too late.


In the 2020 offseason, the Vikings lost starting CBs Xavier Rhodes, Trae Waynes, and Mackensie Alexander. The Vikings tried to address this need last year with the selection of first-round slot CB Jeff Gladney and fourth-round Cameron Dantzler. Both of these players were overmatched and will need to improve in 2021. Mike Hughes was their best corner, but that isn’t saying much.


Vikings star LB Anthony Barr only played in two games last season and he’ll be a welcomed upgrade over 2020 starter Eric Wilson, a 2017 undrafted free agent. Between Anthony Barr and Eric Kendricks, the Vikings are more than set at linebacker. The argument can be made that they're the best linebacker-duo in the NFL, when healthy. However, the two combined for only 11 games in 2020. DT Michael Pierce opted out and this severely impacted the rushing defense.


The Vikings started the 2020 season off slow at 1-5, but with great coaching they finished 7-9 overall, falling just shy of qualifying for the playoffs. Now, the Vikings must improve on several different units and stay healthy to have any chance of a better season in 2021. The offensive line was a clear weakness, finishing 29th in sacks allowed and 26th in short-yardage rushing success. The Vikings ranked 25th in passing yards, 27th in rushing yards, 30th in pass yards per play, and 23rd in rush yards per play.


Quarterback Inspection


Kirk Cousins capped off a solid season throwing for 4,265 yards, 35 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions.


Fantasy Outlook:


Cousins is a solid fantasy QB2 or backup. However, he lacks the rushing upside needed in a run-first offense to be considered a starter in 12 man leagues.


Running Back Inspection


Dalvin Cook had a monster season totaling 1,918 yards from scrimmage and 17 total touchdowns. Cook was second in the league in yards from scrimmage and third in total touchdowns.


Fantasy Outlook:


Durability will always be a concern when it comes to Cook. Still, you will not find many running backs in the NFL as great as him. With 3 down work, red-zone touches, and pass-catching ability, Cook is locked and loaded as a top-5 overall pick heading into 2021. Alexander Mattison is just a solid backup and Ameer Abdullah remains a free agent. Mike Boone has moved on and signed with the Broncos.


Wide Receiver Inspection


Justin Jefferson had one of the best rookie seasons of all time, totaling 1,400 receiving yards. He broke the Vikings franchise's rookie receiving record which was previously held by former Viking Randy Moss. Despite starting out slow in Weeks 1 and 2, Jefferson picked up the pace, hitting the 100-yard mark seven times in 2020. Let's not forget, the rookie also caught an impressive seven touchdowns.


Jefferson had a great mentor during his rookie season with Adam Thielen showed him the ropes. Thielen also had a great fantasy football season with 925 yards and 14 touchdown catches. With the remaining Chad Beebe and Bisi Johnson, the Vikings have little else in terms of receiver depth behind Thielen and Jefferson. The Vikings use a lot of 12-personnel schemes (double-tight end sets), but it will be interesting to see if they opt to switch it up with a new offensive coordinator.


Fantasy Outlook:


Justin Jefferson finished as the No. 6 PPR receiver and the WR14 per game (16.5 PPR points) in 2020.


Early in the 2020 season, Jefferson didn't show off too much. He had just two impressive outings where he put up 30 PPR points in Week 3 and 39 PPR points in Week 6. However, his fantasy production went from 0 to 100 from Week 10 on. Jefferson put up 21+ PPR points in four of his final eight games in 2020.


In 2021, as Thielen gets older, we can expect more volume going Jefferson’s way. Think of it as a passing of the torch from the mentor to the mentee. Jefferson should finish as at least a top-10 fantasy football WR in 2021.


Coming into 2020 with seven seasons in the books, Adam Thielen scored a career-high 14 touchdowns. Thielen was dominant scoring all season, but where he truly earned his paycheck was in the red zone. Thielen’s only touchdown of the season scored outside of the red zone was in Week 1. It's undeniable that his production helped this offense rank No. 6 in the league in red-zone percentage.


Thielen enters the 2021 season at 31 years old and is a negative touchdown regression candidate. Out of Thielen's 19 red-zone targets, 68% ended up touchdowns. While this is an amazing stat, the market should correct itself in 2021. Last season, the NFL average of red-zone targets going for touchdowns was only 28%.


Where things went wrong for Thielen in 2020 was when his targets scaled back after Jefferson emerged as Minnesota’s number 1 WR. In healthy games after the bye, Thielen averaged just 13 PPR points compared to 15 prior to. While this doesn’t seem like much, it could be the difference between cashing a DFS tournament or walking away empty-handed.


The rest of Minnesota receivers would need an injury to Thielen or Jefferson to be viable in 2021. The remainders are currently not expected to have any significant impact and should not be drafted in all twelve-team fantasy football leagues.


Tight End Inspection


Irv Smith and Kyle Rudolph split Minnesota’s tight end snaps last season. Rudolph has left via free agency and has found a new home with the New York Giants. Entering his third season, Irv Smith will be highlighted as a tight end breakout prospect in fantasy football leagues in 2021.


Irv Smith has struggled to get regular work with Kyle Rudolph in the lineup over the last two seasons. Rudolph's targets are now vacant and Smith Jr. should see more snaps in 2021. Rudolph played 72% of the snaps compared to Smith Jr.’s 64%. In games when Rudolph has been out of the lineup, that is where Smith Jr. has played more consistently. With Rudolph absent in Weeks 13-17, Irv Smith Jr. had 17 receptions, 206 yards, three touchdowns, and averaged 15 yards per catch. Throughout the season, Smith Jr. began to collect more targets than Rudolph, 43 compared to Rudolph's 37. He was fourth on the team in targets.


Fantasy Outlook:


Irv Smith Jr. is shaping up to be a true game-changing receiver. The Vikings have used him more in-line than many had originally anticipated. Smith has lined up in the slot or out wide on just 27% of his snaps last year. He is also a vertical downfield threat, finishing as PFF's seventh-ranked tight end on deep passes of 20+ yards. Tight end is a difficult position to fill in fantasy leagues. At just 23 years old, the upside in Irv Smith is big as a late-round sleeper with Minnesota’s lack of a third option at receiver.


If the team opts to continue to run two tight end sets, Tyler Conklin is also someone to monitor as an athletic prospect.



2021 Off-Season Recap


The Vikings HC Mike Zimmer prides himself on defense and was very disappointed in how the young secondary performed last season. The Vikings were awful in almost all defensive statistics finishing with the 29th most points allowed. The Vikings had not had a defensive unit outside of the top 10 in points allowed per game since 2014. This unit couldn’t rush the passer and didn’t have the cornerback talent to win in today's NFL. Vikings GM Rick Spielman has witnessed enough of the young inexperienced corners and already addressed this by signing veteran CB Patrick Peterson and former Viking CB Mackensie Alexander.



2021 Draft Needs


1. Offensive Tackle: After cutting starting LT Riley Reiff for salary cap relief, the Vikings may turn to G/T Ezra Cleveland. With C Garrett Bradbury, G Mason Cole, G Dakota Dozier, and T Brian O'Neill set to return, the offensive line remains a glaring weakness for this team heading into 2021. While the unit had success rushing the ball, Kirk Cousins had limited time to get rid of the ball and he is much more sensitive to pressure. The guard position has been a revolving door during Cousins's tenure in Minnesota.


2. Edge Rusher: Danielle Hunter missed all of 2020, so his return will be beneficial to the sack department. The Vikings should certainly improve against the pass in 2021 solely because Hunter (14.5 sacks in 2018 and 2019) is a player that offenses must game plan for. Minnesota finished 29th in the league in sacks and attempted to fix this last year by acquiring Yannick Ngakoue. After investing a second-round pick in him prior to the 2020 kick-off, the Vikings then shipped him off to Baltimore. Minnesota has already signed DE Stephen Weatherly, DT Dalvin Tomlinson, and LB Nick Vigil to also help out the defensive line.


3. Free Safety: Harrison Smith has played very well at strong safety, but the Vikings must address the free safety position. Former Dallas Cowboy Xavier Woods will replace Anthony Harris who signed with the Eagles. Woods is average at best and not a long-term replacement for Minnesota.


4. Honorable Mention: WR/Kicker: The Vikings have little depth behind Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen. The Vikings could not afford for either of them to miss time. Dan Bailey came up short on far too many kicks last season and ultimately cost the Vikings many games.


2021 NFL Draft


The Vikings are scheduled to enter the 2021 NFL Draft with the following 10 selections:

  • First-Round Pick, 14th overall

  • Third-Round Pick, 78th overall

  • Third-Round Pick (from Ravens), 90th overall

  • Fourth-Round Pick, 119th overall

  • Fourth-Round Pick (from Bears), 125th overall

  • Fourth-Round Pick (from Bills), 134th overall

  • Fourth-Round Pick (comp), 143rd overall

  • Fifth-Round Pick, 157th overall

  • Fifth-Round Pick (from Steelers), 168th overall

  • Sixth-Round Pick, 199th overall

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