Los Angeles Rams: Offseason Wants, Needs & Preview

[Finished 10-6 Overall]

Photo by Joey Zanotti via Flickr

The Los Angeles Rams had the best defense in the league last season, finishing 1st in points allowed, 2nd in passing defense, 2nd in rushing defense, and 2nd in sack rate. Former DC Brandon Staley was excellent in his usage of playmakers Jalen Ramsey and Aaron Donald while maximizing the secondary with his two-high safety scheme. Some regression to the defensive side of the ball is to be expected, given the Rams’ free-agent losses, minimum salary cap space, and Staley’s departure. However, the offense is a near-lock to improve with Matthew Stafford as the new starting quarterback. HC Sean McVay will be able to dial up more 15+ air yard passes (29th) and that alone should allow improvement to the Rams’ No. 22 ranking in points scored. With the changes this offseason, the range of outcomes for this franchise is broad, but a 2021 Super Bowl run is certainly within the realm of possibility. The Rams have used a stars-and-scrubs team approach and lack depth heading into the offseason.

Offensive Unit

In 2020, the Rams were slower in pace (12th) than the year prior but were more balanced (7th) in neutral situations. Unfortunately, they were primarily limited to a short passing game plan (29th in average depth of target). With QB Jared Goff's deficiencies out of the way, expect the vertical passing offense to return. The overall ceiling has been raised significantly and this franchise has the skill and talent to make a push, even if the offensive line has some holes.

The future remains bright for the Rams, and it's not because of the sunny weather in LA. With a significant upgrade to the quarterback position, Sean McVay and this offense are expected to perform at a much higher level in 2021.

Quarterback

Matthew Stafford is finally getting the coaching and receiving talent he needs to bring his game to the next level. Over the last four seasons, Stafford has ranked 26th, 15th, 33rd, and 29th in the percentage of plays coming off play-action. Goff was 5th, 3rd, 2nd, and 3rd. With Goff's exit, Stafford now inherits a play-action offense that sets him up for a potential career-best efficiency season. He’ll primarily be throwing to Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp, while DeSean Jackson and Van Jefferson will be swapping turns as the WR3. Stafford finished as the QB23 per game last year, but under McVay, his arrow is pointing up. Going from Matt Patricia to Sean McVay is a substantial upgrade in coaching, and the talent from the offensive weapons perspective is some of the best he’s been around since Calvin Johnson’s retirement. The hope, if you are a Rams fan, is L.A.’s offense goes through a similar transformation that Green Bay accomplished with Matt LaFleur and Aaron Rodgers. While Stafford is 0-3 in the postseason, he and the Rams are going to work hard with the goal of some playoff success and a Super Bowl appearance. Aside from the offensive line lacking high-end talent, there’s little reason to doubt Stafford’s passing potential in 2021.

Wide Receiver Room

It is possible the Rams choose to add a receiver through the draft or free agency in order to improve the depth of talent. Sean McVay is going to scheme Woods touches near the line of scrimmage, but he’ll now get the intermediate targets that Goff was too afraid to rip. Robert Woods's 155 rushing yards were No. 3 among receivers in 2020. This team’s cap situation prevents a better receiver from entering the mix, so a repeat of last year’s WR16 per game (16.0 PPR) finish feels appropriate. If the offense booms, Woods could be a low-end WR1, he’s only 29 years old. Cooper Kupp was the WR30 per game (14.0 PPR) last season. Both receivers stand to benefit from the quarterback upgrade. Kupp, 28, is a positive touchdown regression candidate after only scoring three touchdowns in 2020. Cooper Kupp’s 1,309 receiving yards from the slot is No. 3 in the NFL over the last two seasons. Kupp missed a regular-season contest against the Arizona Cardinals due to the league’s COVD-19 protocols and missed L.A.’s NFC divisional playoff game against Green Bay with bursitis in his knee. In the playoffs, his presence was especially missed. After all, he was Goff's security blanket. The Rams finished with 26 drops as a receiving group. L.A.’s six passing plays of 40+ yards were tied for eight-worst in the NFL. They tallied just 20 passing touchdowns which ranked at seventh-worst in the league. L.A.’s 6.8 yards per pass play was No. 19 in the NFL. WR Josh Reynolds is a free agent and LA native WR DeSean Jackson returns home to fill in the deep threat role. Jackson is a dynamic athlete when healthy, but that hasn't been the case in years. He hasn't logged a full 16-game season in 8 years. Even with the nagging injuries, he has still managed to lead the league in yards per reception three times since that last healthy season. The last time the speedy receiver topped 1,000 yards was during his three-year stint in Washington. Guess who was the OC during those three seasons in the nation's capital? If you guessed Rams HC Sean McVay you are correct! If Jackson cannot stay healthy, then 2020 rookie WR Van Jefferson seems like he will get the first crack if nobody else is brought in.

Tight End

The 2020 season was a frustrating one for the tight end committee. Heading into 2021, Tyler Higbee has blow-up potential as the clear-cut top option. Gerald Everett isn’t returning and 2020 fourth-rounder Brycen Hopkins only played two snaps as a rookie. Higbee has been a high-value target when given looks. He finally has a clear path to take off as a post-hype bust last year. The Rams will look to replace Everett, 27, who is coming off career-highs in targets (62), catches (41), and receiving yards (417). The Rams used more two-tight end sets in 2020 with HC Sean McVay looking to create more diversity in his offense. Per Next Gen Stats, the Rams ran two-tight end sets on 30% of the team’s snaps on offense during the regular season, averaging five yards per play compared to 6.1 yards per play on three-receiver sets.

Running Back Committee

There's no argument here, Cam Akers won the job. There's no more running back by committee here, just feed Cam Akers the ball. The rookie balled out in the second half of the season. Akers had touch totals of 22, 32, 18, 25, 30, and 19, some of which were on a bum ankle. Even when injured, Akers showed up and showed off. However, with the way that this organization drafts, color us shocked if they elect to bring in another running back.

Assuming the current running back room remains as is, the workload projects to be strong for Akers, he always profiled as a three-down workhorse. With Stafford elevating the ceiling of the offense, Akers has top-five within his range of outcomes. His floor is just lower than others ranked around him because Darrell Henderson is a high-end backup. The Rams drafted Akers in the second round, one year after drafting Henderson who has just 771 rushing yards through two seasons. Henderson is an explosive one-cut runner but offers little beyond that. He’ll be a distant 1B in McVay’s offense but remains one Akers injury away from having the backfield largely to himself. There’s an obvious path to a high ceiling for Henderson. The rotation will switch from three backs to two with Malcolm Brown heading to Miami. McVay thinks Cam Akers is “an every-down back”, and that’s how he used him down the stretch last year. This resulted in Akers's PPR points average jumping from 3.6 to 13.7 following the Week 9 bye.

Offensive Line

Sean McVay puts his offensive line in a tremendous spot by using motion, short-area passing, and play-action. They ranked second in adjusted sacks allowed despite starting castaways and Day 2/3 youngsters. For now, only C Austin Blythe is set to leave this offseason, although both tackles, LT Andrew Whitworth (restructured) and RT Rob Havenstein, may have to take pay cuts to remain on the roster. Continuity and good coaching will have this unit playing better than their individual talents would suggest. The Rams are thin at offensive line depth. A cheap free agent or late-round rookie will likely be filling this spot. Luckily for Stafford and Akers, Sean McVay does more for his offensive line than just about any other NFL coach. Finding the long-term replacement for 39-year-old LT Whitworth is high on the to-do list.

Defensive Unit

The Rams lost DC Brandon Staley to the Chargers this offseason. In his defensive scheme, Staley used two-high safeties more than anyone in the NFL with as few defenders in the box as possible. The goal simply was to stop the intermediate and deep passes, even if that exposed them to opposing teams' rushing attacks. Despite running a single-high defense in Atlanta, newly-hired DC Raheem Morris is likely to retain most of the core principles of last year’s scheme because of how successful it was with these defensive stars. "You don't mess them up," Morris said during a video conference when asked how he intends to use Ramsey and Donald. "Let's let these guys get going."

With CB Darious Williams and SS John Johnson departing, there are concerns regarding the talent left to start in 2021. The Rams still have DE Leonard Floyd and 2020 Defensive Player of the Year Aaron Donald. Donald led the league in quarterback hurries (69) and tied for the lead with 15.0 sacks. The rest of the pass-rushing unit is sub-par with DT Michael Brockers being shipped out to Detroit. This is an issue because the Rams don’t blitz often (27%, 19th). The Rams are hoping that 2019 fifth-rounder Justin Hollins or 2020 third-rounder Terrell Lewis have breakout seasons. The secondary is also stars and scrubs driven. Jalen Ramsey is one of the best defensive backs in the NFL. The Rams will look to fill the holes created by free agent departures with Taylor Rapp and Terrell Burgess as future starters at safety. They will also need to find another starter with slot CB Troy Hill departing. Jalen Ramsey played both inside and outside, so the Rams can be flexible here.

Overall, some regression is expected given the departures, but the Rams still have the makings of a top-passing defense. They were No. 2 in passing defense last year. Stopping the run wasn't much of a priority in Los Angeles, yet they still were very good at it. They were often minus-one or minus-two in the box but managed to finish No. 2 in rushing Defense. The success starts at defensive tackle with Donald and 2019 sixth-round NT Sebastian Joseph-Day. If there’s an obvious weakness in L.A.’s defense, it’s at the linebacker position. All three starters are all backup-level players and former Day 3 picks or undrafted free agents. The Rams front office is analytically driven and obviously believes the position doesn’t matter much.

Too Long Didn't Read Version

Flying above and beyond the expectations of analysts in 2020, the Los Angeles Rams secured a Wild Card playoff berth in the NFC playoffs. Finishing with a record of 6-2 at home in their first season at the brand new Sofi Stadium, the Rams finished 9-3 inside their respective conference. The Rams defense led the way, finishing as the No. 1 unit in the league. The Defensive Player of the Year honor was given to Aaron Donald, as the Rams impressively held their opponents to just 190.7 passing yards, 91.3 rushing yards, and 18.5 points per game. The Rams advanced to the divisional round of the NFC playoffs after narrowly defeating their bitter rival, the Seattle Seahawks, 30-20 in the Wild Card round. However, in the following round, Los Angeles would fail to return to the NFC Championship for the first time since 2016 in a 32-18 defeat at the hands of the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field.

Kicking off the 2021 off-season with a bang, the Rams struck a deal with the Detroit Lions to acquire the former number one pick Matthew Stafford. Sean McVay shipped out Jared Goff, and Los Angeles also sent the Lions a 2021 third-round pick, 2022 first-round pick, and a 2023 first-round draft pick to complete the exchange. How Stafford performs under the offensive guru Sean McVay will be something to watch. Adding a player of Stafford’s talent will improve everyone’s fantasy outlook in 2021. Adding more touches and targets to Cam Akers, Tyler Higbee, Robert Woods, DeSean Jackson, and Cooper Kupp will only heighten fantasy football outlooks.

One of the biggest unknowns moving forward is how the defense will react to the loss of defensive coordinator Brandon Staley and the key pieces that surround Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey. With current needs on both the offensive and defensive lines, expect GM Les Snead to get creative while navigating the salary cap issues. With both Cooper Kupp and Aaron Donald returning to full health to begin Week 1, the future remains bright in the City of Angels.