Indianapolis Colts: Offseason Wants, Needs & Preview

[Finished 11-5 Overall]

The 2020 Indianapolis Colts were one score away from defeating the Buffalo Bills and advancing to the Divisional Round of playoffs. GM Chris Ballard has to be given kudos for putting together a very talented roster through trades, draft picks, and free agency. QB Phillip Rivers announced his retirement after spending just one season under center with this team. Now, the Colts are hoping they can fix QB Carson Wentz. With HC Frank Reich calling the shots, this team may be Wentz's best chance at a bright future. The Colts have been projected to have a sizeable amount of cap space, potentially putting them in the top 5 in the NFL. The holes that this team needs to fill can be addressed with ease given the money, but it's imperative they land the right players. This team dominated on defense, but it shouldn't be overlooked that they played one of the easiest schedules in the NFL.

Offensive Needs

QB Carson Wentz has been bad since his ACL tear and back injury, but there’s no denying that a change in environment is exactly what he needs. His set-up going into 2021 is better than what he’s had in Philadelphia for the last three years. Playing indoors against a similarly soft division should pave the way for a rebound year.

The Colts must find a replacement at left tackle since Anthony Castonzo has opted to retire. Free agency has a few solid, but older candidates that could step in right away. OTs Trent Williams, Russell Okung, or Jason Peters will all be options, but rather expensive. OT Jason Peters is an intriguing option for this team because he played with Carson Wentz in Philadelphia during the time when Frank Reich was the offensive coordinator. Peters has shown a ton of support for Wentz in his new role, and familiarity would be a huge bonus. Another deep left-field option would be to trade for stud tackle Orlando Brown from the Baltimore Ravens. He’s young and still on his rookie deal, but will cost a lot of draft capital. The biggest unknown when it comes to Brown is whether the Ravens would really part ways with their very talented player. If the Colts don't grab a left tackle in free agency, they can always select one with their 21st pick in the upcoming draft. If they fail to bring in a skilled player at the position, it would likely lead to a doomsday scenario for both QB Carson Wentz and RB Jonathan Taylor.

It took rookie RB Jonathan Taylor a hot minute to get acclimated to the NFL. Much of the first half of the season was shadowed by his failure to emerge as the type of players the Colts thought they drafted. Patient fans and DFS players alike were rewarded late in the season. Following the Week 12 bye, he averaged 20.3 PPR points per game and finally looked like the elite prospect everyone made him out to be pre-draft. Everything about Taylor’s profile suggests a top-five ceiling running back. However, Carson Wentz isn't the type of quarterback to check down to the running back. It's very possible that this offense regresses as a whole if Wentz plays the way he did back in Philadelphia. There's also another component that could limit how much opportunity Taylor gets. Enter RB Nyheim Hines. At 24 years young, Hines will be going into his 4th and final year of his contract with the Colts. The offensive play-calling will be designed for Hines, but between Taylor’s third-down role possibly increasing in year two and Wentz’s struggles checking down, it’s easy to avoid Hines in all fantasy football formats. The former fourth-rounder is in the last year of his rookie contract and could be phased out by the time fantasy playoffs roll around.

WR T.Y. Hilton is expected to dip his toes in the waters of free agency. This leaves a big need for an outside receiver next to WR Michael Pittman Jr. The 23-year-old certainly made some big plays but didn’t look ready for a big workload last year. Former QB Philip Rivers would exchange targets between Pittman and Hilton. The former USC Trojan finished as WR67 in 2020 fantasy leagues. While Pittman’s 1.37 yards per route run doesn’t stand out among historical rookies, he is poised for a big year, especially if Hilton moves on. Pittman made a number of wild grabs down the field as a USC Trojan. WR Paris Campbell will likely slide into the slot role. If that does happen, it will leave the Colts shorthanded with no one to fill Campbell's shoes at this time. The 2018 second-rounder has just 24 receptions due to a slew of injuries as a rookie last season. Campbell profiles as a starting-caliber slot receiver if healthy. For Campbell to become a fantasy starter, there’s a lot to overcome, but the path is there, especially late in drafts.

At tight end, Trey Burton and Mo-Alie Cox are free agents. Plus, the Colts could opt to release 31-year-old Jack Doyle. The team can save $4.4M against the cap by cutting Doyle who only had 23 receptions last year. Doyle is good, but the franchise needs an explosive weapon to set off this budding offense. The Colts could go the free agency route and target Hunter Henry, Gerald Everett, or Jonnu Smith.

Defensive Needs

Last season, the Colts were exposed by deep vertical offenses including Buffalo, Green Bay, and Houston. Thanks to ample cap space, the Colts have the luxury to choose who they want to re-sign. Following a rebound season, CB1 Xavier Rhodes is eligible for free agency. The Colts will look for a corner with zone experience if Rhodes walks since they led the league in cover-2 zone last year. Even if Rhodes re-signs, Indy could look at upgrading the CB2, a hole that's been occupied by Rock Ya-Sin. After a successful rookie campaign, unfortunately, Ya-Sin regressed in year 2 of his career. As a result, the Colts scaled back his snap count significantly. This will challenge the franchise to think hard about what they want to do at cornerback. Whatever the Colts decide to do, they have to add a more consistent edge rush presence.

Justin Houston, Denico Autry, Al-Quadin Muhammad, the Colts’ top-three edge rushers in terms of snaps played, are all free agents. The Colts need to invest in some complementary pieces around the dominant interior force of DeForest Buckner. GM Chris Ballard has poured large amounts of money into this defensive line before and it's likely he will do it again. The move Ballard made to acquire Buckner last March paid off in a big way. The growth of Grover Stewart has given Indianapolis a talented, destructive twosome at defensive tackle for the foreseeable future. If the Colts lose Autry, they lose one of their top two interior rushers. However, DT Tyquan Lewis showed promise for the first time in Autry’s role. As a result, the Colts likely don’t need to search far and wide in the free-agent market.

Too Long Didn't Read Version:

The Colts should continue to improve with the correct tweaks to an already solid roster. Loaded with cap space and excellent front office and coaching staff, it's important to speculate whether Carson Wentz can truly be fixed. Frank Reich believes he is the answer to Wentz's problems. The last time these two were together, Wentz was well on his way to an MVP season before tearing his ACL.

Before you think about drafting QB Carson Wentz in fantasy, know the risks. The Colts are incentivized to bench Wentz if he does not play well. If Wentz plays more than 70% of the snaps, the Colts send over a 2022 first-round pick to the Eagles. If Wentz plays less than 70% of the snaps, that 2022 first-round pick turns into a second-round pick. As if Wentz's confidence wasn't already in question, this alone lowers Wentz’s season-long floor. Even still, let's remain optimistic. This is likely the best-case scenario and most ideal environment for Wentz to have a rebound season. He truly is one of the biggest boom or bust picks heading into the 2021 season.

With one of the best offensive and defensive units in the NFL, the Colts are one of the few teams who have a legit shot to make the Super Bowl in 2021. This offseason, look for them to address left tackle, defensive end, cornerback, wide receiver, and tight end. RB Jonathan Taylor should be a first-round pick that takes a bigger leap, while WR Michael Pittman Jr. is a mid-round sleeper who could exceed his draft position.