Houston Texans: Offseason Wants, Needs & Preview

[Finished 4-12 Overall]

The 2020 AFC Championship seems to be a distant memory for Texans fans. The talent that this team has shed since that game is absurd and honestly pretty painful, especially to the fanbase. In just a short period of time, the toxic culture in Houston has chased away WR DeAndre Hopkins, DE J.J Watt, and potentially QB Deshaun Watson.

For now, the Texans have what most franchises are chasing, a Super Bowl-caliber quarterback. Watson led the league last season in yards per attempt and quarterback rating. Watson managed these impressive stats while operating the worst-ranked offensive line in adjusted sack rate, and without his top offensive weapon, D-Hop. Not helping the situation, the defense was terrible, ranking 30th in passing defense and 31st in rushing defense. The lack of cap space ($3.3M) and draft capital (no draft picks until the 3rd round) make this an uphill challenge for any team, let alone a team facing so much turmoil. The Texans will have many decisions to make on this 2021 roster. Key free agents include WR Will Fuller, CB Vernon Hargreaves, CB Phillip Gaines, and DE J.J Watt (cut). Cut candidates may loom large in Brandin Cooks ($12M) and David & Duke Johnson ($11.5M total).

[2/26/2021 Update: Texans have released veteran RB Duke Johnson]

Offensive Needs

If the Texans are not careful, they may find themselves drafting first overall in 2022. The trade murmurs surrounding Watson whisper at least 3 first-round draft picks. A young quarterback that can win a Super Bowl and has a small 2021 cap hit is worth a hefty price. Watson has proved his leadership skills with a rotation of multiple different running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends week in and week out.

At wide receiver, Brandin Cooks and Randall Cobb have huge contracts, and injuries have plagued both WRs over the course of their NFL careers so far. WR Keke Coutee set a new rookie record in his playoff debut with 16 catches. Yet, prior to this game, he struggled to get playing time because he clashed with former HC Bill O'Brien. When given the opportunity, Coutee has shown up and showcased his talent. WR Chad Hansen also proved to be a diamond in the rough when given the opportunity. Hansen was one of the few bright spots on the team after being out of the NFL for 3 seasons, he really stepped up in WR Will Fuller's absence. Fuller was a smash mid-value receiver for subscribers last season, and despite his PED suspension, he will likely command high interest in free agency.

[2/26/2021 Update: The Texans have no plans to franchise tag WR Will Fuller]

RBs David and Duke Johnson were both set up for success but failed to impress when an opportunity came knocking. Last week, the Texans showed RB Duke Johnson the door. By cutting Duke Johnson, the Texans saved $5M in cap space. They chose to move forward with David Johnson as their lead back and restructured his contract to create a little extra cap space.

TEs Jordan Akins and Darren Fells were solid in their roles and very cheap DFS red-zone targets. The main issue with these two is that they eat into each other’s production. If one of the two left, the other would be a nice late-round flyer pending Watson staying or leaving. OTs Laremy Tunsil and Tytus Howard are very good tackles, but center and guard remain some of the weakest units in the NFL.

[2/26/2021 Update: The Texans have released C Zack Martin, saving $6.25M in cap space]

Defensive Needs

DC Lovie Smith was brought in, and it's likely he will implement a Cover 2, Tampa-style defense. Truthfully, this could be a recipe for disaster for The Texans as they already struggle in almost every aspect of defense. DE J.J. Watt wasn’t great but his absence will be most felt on an already struggling rush defense. The Texans should rank dead last in pass rush unless they can somehow land a stud.

CB Bradley Roby has only played a total of 20 games over the course of his two seasons with the Texans. While Roby has been a quality player at corner, he was picked on over and over again by elite number one receivers. It is likely that CB Vernon Hargreaves, CB Phillip Gaines will walk in free agency, and the Texans will be left with nobody on the roster capable to step in and replace them. The entire secondary, linebacker, and defensive line need to be upgraded. Without any adjustments, this unit is expected to rank near or at the bottom of every defensive metric.

Too Long Didn't Read Version

Stay tuned throughout the offseason to see if Watson lands in New York, Miami, Carolina, or elsewhere. The Texans may put their money (or lack thereof) to their mouths and let him sit out, though this wouldn't be a wise strategy. If they opt to let him sit out until the trade deadline, they will limit who can actually acquire him, and potentially miss out on much-needed draft capital. Don't forget, as it stands right now, in February, the Texans don't even have a pick until the third round. The Texans are in for a long couple of seasons as they try to scrape together any dignity they still have.