Green Bay Packers: Offseason Wants, Needs & Preview

[Finished 13-3 Overall]

Photo by Mike Morbeck via Flickr

For the second consecutive season, the Green Bay Packers were sent home just one game shy of the Super Bowl. QB Aaron Rogers, GM Brian Gutekunst, HC Matt LaFleur, and all of the Cheesehead-faithful were stunned after losing in the NFC Conference Championship. Former DC Mike Pettine’s refusal to address and adjust the weaknesses of the Packers' rushing defense was the reason for his dismissal. RBs Raheem Mostert and Leonard Fournette managed to torch this defensive unit in back-to-back title games. The Packers must correct this with better scheme selection and more talent prior to kickoff in September.

Now, let's rewind to the 2020 offseason. The selection of QB Jordan Love in the first round was one of the biggest headlines at the conclusion of the 2020 NFL Draft. Far and wide, draft experts everywhere labeled the 2020 draft as the deepest wide reciever draft in the history of the NFL. Prior to the big day, imaginations ran wild at the thought of Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams being paired with Justin Jefferson, Brandon Auyiuk, or Michael Pittman, all of whom the Packers had the opportunity to select. Unfortunately, this was not the case, but what if? What if the front office opted to put more weapons around Rodgers instead of drafting his successor?

A wise man once said, "In this world, nothing is certain but death and taxes [and Aaron Rodgers balling out]." When Rodgers is motivated or ticked off, get out of his way. AR came out firing on his way to win his third career MVP award, leaving critics in the dust. Rodgers made swiss cheese out of everyone who got in his way with the exception of the Super Bowl Champions, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Rodgers was beaten up by Tampa Bay's defense. This was the same defense that delivered Rodgers his worst regular-season start back in Week 6. During the regular season, these teams met in Tampa Bay, but in the NFC Championship, QB Tom Brady poked holes in the Cheesehead City. Despite having so much success in the regular-season and obtaining home-field advantage for the first time in his career, Rodgers once again flunked in the biggest game of the year. Following the disappointment of that game, Rodgers left Lambeau Field questioning whether he would be back in 2021. Rumors flooded the internet about potential landing spots for the MVP. However, since then, Rodgers has walked back most of his post-game comments. It'll be difficult, but not impossible for Rodgers to repeat another career year. His play elevated RB Aaron Jones and WR Davante Adams to the next level.

Now, Green Bay's front office must face the music and admit that they made mistakes last offseason by not surrounding Rodgers with more weapons. This is a mistake that can be corrected this offseason, especially if this franchise wants another shot at playing in the Super Bowl.

Offensive Needs

Last year, QB Aaron Rodgers was remarkable in his MVP season. Rodgers was money in the bank when throwing to the perimeter of the field and in the red zone. The Packers threw to the sideline 82% of the time, which was 2nd in the league. They also had incredible success in the touchdown department. A league-high 80% of their red-zone trips ended in a touchdown. Following a statistic letdown in 2019, Rodgers set career highs in passing touchdowns (48) and completion percentage (71%) in 2020. Rodgers finished last season as the QB4 overall in fantasy. There's a reason he was the MVP this past season, the numbers don't lie. Now the big question heading into next season is does he still have enough gas in the tank to throw 3-4 touchdowns per game? Proceed with caution in fantasy drafts this season, you'd be buying into Aaron Rodgers at his highest price. Plus, other top quarterback options in his tier clearly offer more rushing upside (9.3 rushing yards per game). While Rodgers's floor is safe, the ceiling/price tag should make you think about passing on him in fantasy leagues. Let the other players in your league take a gamble on Rodgers.

HC Matt LaFleur runs a slow-paced, rhythm-based offense that is methodical in both the passing and the running game. LaFleur is a branch of the Sean McVay/Kyle Shanahan coaching tree. He uses outside zone rushes to set up big plays on the ground at a top-10 play-action rate (30%) paired with deep throws through the air. The core of the passing offense is returning and LaFleur has the formula needed to repeat as a top offense once again. It’s safe to say as long as WR Davante Adams stays healthy, first downs will be obtained, touchdowns will be scored, and 100+ receiving yard games will be had. The chemistry between Rodgers and Adams may make them the best QB/WR duo in the NFL. Adams makes almost every cornerback in the league look overmatched. He runs some of the smoothest routes in the game. Breaking news! Adams finished as WR1 in 2020. Shocking right? When Adams is healthy, reliability is not of concern for fantasy football players and Packers fans alike; he averaged 28 points per game. The biggest conundrum for this franchise to resolve is the depth behind Adams.

WR Allen Lazard is a restricted free agent this year. After finishing as WR53 overall, his return to Green Bay remains in question. While his talent cannot be denied, he wasn't able to showcase that talent because of his injuries. In the games that Lazard has played, Rodgers has shown a willingness to trust him. Behind Lazard, the 3rd wide receiver is situational deep threat Marquez Valdes-Scantling. MVS is set to return to the roster in 2021, but he must make it a priority to cut down on the drops to earn more targets from Rodgers. Regardless of whether or not Lazard returns to Green Bay, it's hard to picture Valdes-Scantling's role growing from WR3. In his brief tenure in the NFL thus far, MVS has already gotten labeled as one of the most frustrating fantasy players to own. If this franchise wants success in the future, passing up on talented receivers in the upcoming draft and free agency is something they simply cannot do.

After producing 11 touchdowns, restricted free agent TE Robert Tonyan must be made a priority to re-sign. If he does not return, free-agent TE Marcedes Lewis and athletic TE Jace Sternberger have proven they are not reliable NFL starters. Truthfully, all Tonyan does on the field is catch touchdowns. He caught his 11 touchdowns on just 59 passes thrown his way all season. While reaching that level of production in 2021 will be difficult, his presence on the field will open things up for other players.

The Packers offensive line was sixth in fewest sacks allowed and dominated where it counts: the red zone. Green Bay converted 48-of-60 red-zone trips into touchdowns, a mark that was best in the NFL. One of the main reasons that Rodgers struggled against the pass rush of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers was because of the injuries across the offensive line. Coincidentally, there were injuries on the offensive line that were devastating in both of the games these two teams squared off in. The absence of stonewalled LT David Bakhtiari was too much for Green Bay to withstand. We saw a variety of different lineman injured throughout the season as well, including LG Lucas Patrick, C Elgton Jenkins, and RG/RT Billy Turner. This unit may lose C Corey Linsley and RT Rick Wagner to free agency this offseason. However, their losses can be overcome by the depth they already have on the roster. Look for Green Bay to make an offseason addition at either right guard or right tackle, and that should do the trick here.

The ink is still drying on the contract signed by RB Aaron Jones. On March 14, he cashed in on a 4-year $48M contract. Jones has been dominant over the past two seasons achieving 1,400 total yards, a feat only achieved by RBs Dalvin Cook and Christian McCaffrey. Few people saw the re-signing move happening. After Jones wasn't slapped with a franchise tag, most thought he would walk in free agency and sign with another organization. This franchise realized what they have in Jones and didn't want to lose him, and surely the constant barking from Aaron Rodgers to retain weapons only helped the matter. A true three-down back who has crushed in games Adams has missed, Jones is a top back heading into the 2021 season. RB Jamaal Williams is heading to free agency, and with limited cap space and other needs, he will be most likely not be brought back. The Packers will still run a committee backfield and second back AJ Dillon will fill nicely into that role. Dillon lacks in the receiving game (24 catches in the NFL/College), but this “baby” Derrick Henry clone is a force to be reckoned with in the red zone/open field. If Jones were to miss time, Dillon would be one of the most valuable handcuffs/bench pieces to have heading into 2021.

Defensive Needs

Former DC Mike Pettine is out and will be replaced by two-time DC Joe Barry. Barry's previous stints include time spent with the Detroit Lions and the Washington Football Team, both of which ended in lackluster results. Ironically, defenses led by Barry were defenseless, finishing 32nd, 32nd, 17th, and 19th in points allowed. Given the current state of this defensive unit plus Barry's history, it’s a risky hire, but there is some optimism. Barry learned under the tutelage of Brandon Staley during his time on the Rams staff. On paper, the defensive scheme implemented by both Pettine and Barry will look similar. They both use two-deep safeties and blitz at the 22nd and 19th highest rates. Yet, there are differences. Barry will likely use more cover-4 (Rams influenced) instead of cover-2, and Barry’s execution in the run game will most likely be better.

Last year, opposing offenses opted to run the ball against the Packers at the highest rate in neutral scoring situations. While the Rams ranked second-best in rushing defense, the one-man army that is Aaron Donald isn’t walking through the locker room of Lambeau Field anytime soon. The rushing defense has been colder than the frozen tundra. With the bar set as low as it is for the Packers, it will be hard for this defensive unit to regress further. Fixing this issue starts at linebacker, and change has already begun with the departure of LB Christian Kirksey. The rest of the depth chart is filled with backup-level players. Roster fillers Krys Barnes, Kamal Martin, and injury-prone Oren Burks have been uninspiring to this point in their careers. Finding linebackers who can stop the run is by far the biggest need this offseason. The one interior player who has shined so far is Kenny Clark who has been low-key great thus far. LB Za’Darius Smith totaled the season with 12.5 sacks. LB Rashan Gary, a 2019 first-round pick, tallied less impressive numbers, but still accounted for 5 sacks. An option to potentially bring back to this unit is Preston Smith who racked up 4 sacks. Smiths' return is in question because of his large contract and cap hit ($8M) in 2021. It’s a strong group from top to bottom that could take a leap under a new scheme.

Conversations need to be had about what's going on at cornerback. Heated arguments can be expected about who is the best pound-for-pound corner in the NFL today. Is it Jalen Ramsey or is it Jaire Alexander? Former DC Mike Pettine did not use Alexander in shadow coverage as often as expected. We may see Barry use Alexander all over the field as a weapon to eliminate the top offensive player lining up against the Packers. This would be similar to how Ramsey was used in LA last year. The depth behind Alexander is concerning. Free agents Kevin King and Chandon Sullivan have shown that they are not the solution for this defensive unit. The Packers must address this issue heading into 2021 with teams starting to pick up on throwing to whoever Alexander isn't covering. The statistics tell a different story as the Packers finished 12th against the pass in 2020. However, most of those statistics were achieved because of Alexander, dual-threat FS Darnell Savage and SS Adrian Amos, and pressure produced by edge rushers.

Too Long Didn't Read Version

The definition of insanity is repeating the same action and expecting different results. The Packers getting to the same point year after year can drive even the most loyal cheesehead insane. When playing the blame game, there are a number of scapegoats that are easily identifiable over the past few seasons. Fingers can be pointed at the front office for failing to address the same flaws the roster has had for years. Blame can also be put on the poorly constructed coaching staff under former HC Mike McCarthy and retaining Mike Pettine as defensive coordinator in 2020. While the offense has excelled in the regular season the inadequate talent along the rushing defense has let Green Bay for far too long. Injuries are unfortunate and some are obviously more impactful than others, but the timing of the offensive line injuries has been horrendous.

Lifting a Lombardi trophy at the end of the season is one of the greatest achievements in the sport of football. While we can't live in the past, the Packers must find a way to address the lack of consistency from other weapons not named Davante Adams, Aaron Rodgers, or Aaron Jones. With limited cap space and a late draft pick, it will be difficult, but as long as number 12 is on the field, you have a chance to win that game. Nothing in life is more disappointing than wasted talent. If Green Bay does not address their incompetencies at wide receiver, linebacker, and cornerback, they will once again look back when the dust settles in 2021 and question what could have been.