Denver Broncos: Offseason Wants, Needs & Preview

[Finished 5-11 Overall]

Attacking the 2021 offseason with aggression will be imperative for the Denver Broncos. Despite hitting big on a number of draft picks in 2020, the Broncos missed the playoffs again for the fifth straight season. Staying healthy will be of the essence for the men from mile high. Bill Parcells once said, “You are what your record is.” At 5-11, this quote couldn’t be more true for any other team. HC Vic Fangio returns for his third season and the clock is ticking for him to mold this team back into playoff contenders. Broncos legend John Elway stepped down as general manager. He still has power within the team in his new role as assistant to the owner. George Paton was hired to be the new general manager.

Offensive Needs

Coming into 2020, WR Courtland Sutton was a clear regression candidate given the addition of rookie WRs K.J. Hamler and Jerry Jeudy. Not helping matters, Sutton suffered a torn ACL in Week 2. Thankfully, he is expected to return which will boost the offense tremendously. Don't forget, in 2019, Sutton put up a 72-1,112-6 receiving line (13.7 PPR per game) with Joe Flacco, Brandon Allen, and Drew Lock. Earning 124 targets may be difficult with more target competition around him now, but Sutton is an explosive player playing in a contract season. He may be a good sleeper to target after he burned a ton of people in 2020 fantasy drafts. With Sutton, Jeudy, Hamler, and Noah Fant, the Broncos roster sports youth and talent that desperately calls for a franchise QB to turn this offense around.

Growing pains were expected out of WR rookies Hamler and Jeudy, but Drew Lock's accuracy issues made their transition into the NFL even more difficult. The chemistry between Lock and the new additions was glaring. Jeudy’s rookie season was an utter disappointment. He was WR63 in PPR points per game (9.3). Jeudy racked up 12 drops in 2020 which was the second-most in the NFL this past season. With the return of Sutton imminent, Jeudy needs to work on becoming a more physical player and making the most of his opportunities to live up to his 15th overall draft pick just a season ago. Talent isn’t of the question here, but a quarterback who can nurture multiple fantasy superstars is.

The offensive line had plenty of problems to deal with this past season as well. RT Ja'Wuan James opted out before the season started and the 2020 third-round pick, C Lloyd Cushenberry, underperformed as a rookie. It’s unknown how much the Broncos can expect out of each of these players moving forward, but at least LT Garett Bolles looks like a franchise cornerstone. In addition, the entire offensive line is set to return this season. Continuity works to benefit a team.

The Broncos were a below-average rushing offense, ranking 23rd in rushing and 22nd in short-yardage rushing. RB Melvin Gordon figures to take on a bigger load in 2021 with RB Phillip Lindsay heading for free agency. He could re-sign for cheap after an injury-filled season, but Gordon ranked fantasy’s (RB13 out of 74) and was the superior player to Lindsay (RB60). It will be interesting to see if Gordon gets a full 3 down role in 2021. The offensive line ranked 28th in PFF’s run-blocking grade, and the Broncos’ two primary ball carriers ranked second and third in time spent behind the line of scrimmage per NextGen Stats. This was a clear sign that they were waiting for a hole to open up longer.

Despite battling a nagging ankle sprain and errant throws from Lock, Noah Fant finished as the TE6 in 2020. In just two seasons, the former first-rounder has the 11th most receiving yards (1,235) among tight ends in NFL history at 22 years old or younger. He’s been explosive after the catch and should have more red zone opportunities next season. Fant is worth betting on as a top-six-ish fantasy tight end entering his age-23 season. He is a buy-now candidate!

Defensive Needs

HC Vic Fangio remains one of the brightest defensive minds in the league. Playing in the AFC West, this team has been and will continue to be involved in plenty of shootouts. Fangio is the brain behind the instrumental designs when it comes to focusing on eliminating the explosive pass. Injuries and lack of depth destroyed any hopes for this team in 2020.

The Broncos disguise their pressure looks well and often just let their pass rush win instead of blitzing (18th), which made LB Von Miller’s broken foot hurt the team's optimal strategy of success last season. The front office has to make decisions on a couple of the Broncos’ best defenders, S Justin Simmons (franchise tag), LB Alexander Johnson, LB Von Miller (salary/off-field issues), and DT Jurrell Casey. Fangio is well equipped to maximize this team's talent. Assuming most of these players are back, the Broncos have a top-12 defense on paper coming into 2021. Both S Justin Simmons and S Kareem Jackson had success in Fangio’s two-high safety defense. The Broncos’ corner depth chart lacks the elite players of years past, as it features CB1 Bryce Callahan, 2020 third-rounder CB2 Michael Ojemudia, and slot CB Essang Bassey. Bassey is a 2020 undrafted free agent who is coming off a torn ACL this past December. There’s room for an upgrade after releasing CB A.J. Bouye to save $13.2 million. Up front, the Broncos will welcome back Von Miller and get LB Bradley Chubb in his second season removed from a torn ACL. Denver’s pass defense could be a top 10 unit in 2021 if things break their way. LB Alexander Johnson, the Broncos’ leading tackler (96), is a free agent this offseason, as is disruptive DT Shelby Harris. Their potential losses would be a concern, but the Broncos do have the cap space to retain them if they wish.

Overall, it’s likely that Denver’s 2021 run defense regresses back into the top-10 mix on injury luck alone. LB Von Miller, DT Jurrell Casey, NT Mike Purcell, and DT Shelby Harris all missed time last season and were severely missed. The Broncos will never be a top-five team in rushing defense as the scheme allows rushing production in exchange for putting more defensive backs on the field to eliminate the passing success of their opponents.

Too Long Didn't Read Version

Finding the right quarterback since the days of Peyton Manning has been a thorn in this franchise for years. Two years ago, QB Drew Lock finished very strong but has regressed heavily since. The Broncos ranked 26th in the league in passing touchdowns, 28th in points and passing yards, and last in turnovers lost. Most of Lock's statistical highs came in garbage time and finding the right system/quarterback remains very important for Denver. As it stands right now, with 23 career touchdowns and 18 interceptions, Drew Lock has shown he is not the answer at quarterback. It goes without saying, but Lock has to improve if he returns to the Broncos in 2021. With $30M in cap space and a top ten pick in the upcoming draft, the fix for this team isn’t as far off as it seems.