Dallas Cowboys: Offseason Wants, Needs & Preview

[Finished 6-10 Overall]

The 2020 Dallas Cowboys entered the season as a dark horse to win the Super Bowl. Despite the results in late August, the prediction was justified. Dallas added WR Cee Dee Lamb, fired HC Jason Garrett, and the franchise finally looked like it was capable of making a deep playoff run (on paper). Newly hired HC Mike McCarthy was brought in to bring this floundering franchise back to its glory days, by cleaning house and implementing the strategies that made Green Bay successful for many years.

The buzz and hype surrounding this team were out of control, but then the effects of the pandemic began to settle in. The league unveiled socially distant training camps and things only continued downhill from there. A slew of injuries to All-Pro and Pro Bowl players decimated any hopes the Cowboys had of running roughshod over the NFL. When this team lost QB Dak Prescott to a season-ending injury in Week 5, it became apparent that coach McCarthy made a grave error in constructing his defensive staff. Dallas's offense was No. 1 in the league, but his defense was the laughingstock of the NFL.

Offensive Needs

In his two years under the helm, OC Kellen Moore has created significant fantasy production for this team's skilled players. What made the Cowboys successful was pre-snap motion, play-action passing, an abundance of plays, and being second in the NFL in tempo. However, offensive line injuries, and of course the loss of their star quarterback, threw a monkey wrench into this team's hopes of making the playoffs.

Some late-season heroics in December made the Cowboys viable in Week 17, but they were quickly reminded that they weren't worthy of making the playoffs this time around. Dallas averaged 32 points per game with QB Dak Prescott as the starter but defensively ranked last in the NFL. Prescott was able to mask many of the team's deficiencies and was a fantasy football superstar in the brief time he spent on the field this past season. Prescott bet on himself by signing the franchise tag prior to the 2020 season. Unfortunately, he suffered a gruesome ankle injury, and in his absence, Dallas struggled tremendously. Following his injury, the team went on to finish 20th in passing and 28th in rushing. Dallas realized Prescott's value in his absence and re-signed him.

Among 35 quarterbacks with at least 500 plays over the last two seasons, Dak Prescott ranks third in fantasy points and 15th in completion percentage over expected. The only quarterbacks to average more points than him in their own starting seasons are Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson. Prescott’s cap number for 2021 is $25.5M. The salary cap number for this season will be $22.2M instead of the $37.7M that would've come along with the franchise tag. Ultimately, Dallas saved $15.5M against this season’s cap.

As far as offensive skill players go, few other teams sport a better cast. WRs Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup, Cee Dee Lamb, and TEs Blake Jarwin and Dalton Schultz are all under contract. Cooper, the X receiver, has averaged 16.6 PPR points in 30 games with Prescott despite some injuries sprinkled throughout. Lamb is the primary slot receiver (35% of his targets came over the middle), while Gallup runs a lot of clear-out routes on the perimeter (18% over the middle). With these three, it’s possible that the Cowboys have a top-10 passing offense in 2021 after ranking 25th last year.

LT Tyron Smith, G Zack Martin, and free agent C Joe Looney all missed time last season, and when they were on the field, they played through ailments. With better luck on the injury front, the Cowboys could have a top-10 offensive line next season. Four starters are set to return and the fifth projected starter is 2020 rookie fourth-round C Tyler Biadasz who played in eight games and was getting Round 1 buzz prior to a collegiate injury.

RB Ezekiel Elliott was handed a contract extension prior to the start of this past season but had major fumbling issues with little success throughout its entirety. Due to prior success and his enormous contract, Elliot is the overwhelming favorite to keep his lead-back duties over RB Tony Pollard. Elliot may not average the 24.4 expected PPR points he had with Prescott last year, but he should see an RB1 workload even if Pollard mixes in on passing downs. Expect the Cowboys’ No. 20 rushing offense to push towards top-12 status in 2021.

Having TE Blake Jarwin healthy will be a tremendous asset to the Cowboys in 2021. We could see more double-tight end sets to help with the offensive line if they struggle with injuries once again. OT Tyron Smith may get moved to save some salary, but time will tell if that happens.

Defensive Needs

DC Mike Nolan did not last the duration of the 2020 season. Nolan will be replaced by former Falcons HC Dan Quinn. Getting more starts out of healthy CB Trevon Diggs, S Donovan Wilson, DE Randy Gregory, and LB Leighton Vander Esch, could help Dallas tremendously. A defense that plays cover-3 as often as Dallas should not be ranked 28th in the league in 40 yard passes allowed.

Dallas could be facing a lot of potential turnover in the secondary too. CB2 Chidobe Awuzie and slot CB Jourdan Lewis are both free agents, and the Cowboys could look to improve from current starting S Darian Thompson who is heading into the last year of his contract. The two players who are locked in as starters in the secondary are 2020 second-round pick CB Trevon Diggs and 2019 sixth-round S Donovan Wilson. DC Dan Quinn may look for a deep safety and CB2 to round out his single-high looks. Up front, the Cowboys have $25M DEs DeMarcus Lawerence and Randy Gregory, the two accounted for a combined 11 sacks.

On paper, pressuring the quarterback appears to be a strength of this defense, but they ranked 25th in adjusted sack rate in 2020. Overall, Dallas's pass defense should remain a below-to-average unit barring any heavy revamping. Dallas's rush defense was so bad that teams ran against them at the 10th highest rate in the NFL. Injuries doomed this front with LB Jaylon Smith looking slow and LB Vander Esch not performing at the level of play that we saw in his rookie season. Both DTs Trysten Hill and Neville Gallimore will need to make a leap in their second and third seasons if they want to get better results statistically. If DT Gerald McCoy returns to full health it will be a tremendous boost to the defense. This franchise's offseason needs are mostly all on the defensive side of the ball. Dallas can look for upgrades at free safety, outside corner, slot corner, defensive tackle, and linebacker. LB Sean Lee has battled with injuries, and his replacement may be found on day 2 or 3 of the upcoming draft.

Too Long Didn't Read Version

While many of us have jumped the gun with Super Bowl expectations, the playoffs are certainly within reach. The NFC East is wide open and with a few key corrections, and good health, Dallas can be poised to take home the divisional title in 2021. This team needs to attack the defensive side of the ball in the draft and free agency, and its results will be driven by how well Dan Quinn does in his first season.

RB Tony Pollard has to be one of the most important handcuffs in fantasy football if Elliot were to get hurt. The same can be said if Pollard were to get hurt and Elliot were to be, dare we say it, fed. All 3 WRs are top fantasy options and will trade week winning weeks. In DFS going with the lowest owned has been a proven method to success. Expect WR Cee Dee Lamb to take the biggest leap forward in 2021. TE Blake Jarwin becomes a sneaky late-round fantasy option as well, with a full bill of health.

Laugh about Prescott's asking price but in today’s NFL, he deserves it. In hindsight was the waiting worth it for Dallas? Dallas’s five-year commitment to Prescott will average out to about $38.3M per season with $157.4M in guarantees. Had they worked within four-year parameters, this franchise could've put together a better deal last year.