Chicago Bears: Offseason Wants, Needs & Preview

[Finished 8-8 Overall]

The 2020 Chicago Bears were a defensive-led team, cursed with below-average quarterback play. Chicago flip-flopped starts between QB Mitchell Trubisky (9 starts) and QB Nick Foles (7 starts). Trubisky is what he is, and performs well in optimal spots. However, he panics in the pocket when under pressure. Chicago’s offensive capabilities, or lack thereof, were generally disappointing, ranking 24th in offensive pass-blocking. Despite all of this, the Bears still caught fire on the tail end of the season. That heat was sparked by excellent play from both RB David Montgomery and WR Allen Robinson.

Chicago’s defense featured 3 dominant components: LB Khalil Mack, LB Robert Quinn, and DE Akiem Hicks. Even though this defense carried the offense for most of the season, overall production for the unit was average. The Bears defense ended up finishing 14th in defensive points allowed.

Entering the weekend before free agency official kicks off, the Chicago Bears were an estimated $19M over the 2021 cap. The Bears addressed this issue by restructuring the contracts of LB Khalil Mack, S Eddie Jackson and OL Cody Whitehair. This move frees up $23M in cap space, leaving the bears roughly $4M to spend this offseason, barring any other cap-saving moves. The Bears will need to think long and hard about how they want to spend their money. There are key positions that the Bears need to target this offseason, and one of those includes quarterback. The Monsters of Midway can get back into the playoffs in 2021, and the right moves in free agency and the upcoming draft will be crucial.

Offensive Needs

Unsurprisingly, QB Mitchell Trubisky’s fifth-year option was not picked up, and so he will venture into the unknowns of free agency. Inconsistency in play-calling was just one issue as the Bears switched between OC Bill Lazor and HC Matt Nagy. Still, regardless of who was calling plays, the limitations of the quarterback talent and offensive line wrecked the Bears from Week 1. QB Nick Foles was brought in last season and while he was able to secure the win over Tampa Bay, eventually, the lack of a reliable offensive line and his mobility/accuracy issues caught up to him. The Bears handed the keys over to Foles and gave him multiple opportunities to drive the offense, but his own inabilities destroyed any hope of him achieving long-term success. So, why not just cut Foles? Why don't the Bears give the quarterback position a full reboot? The answer is, it's not as easy as it sounds. The Bears would be accountable for mostly all of his guaranteed cap money, and they simply don't have the funds to afford that. Well how about a trade to save money? That's also not as easy as it sounds. Depending on exactly when the Bears would trade Nick Foles, the most they would save is $1.5M if the trade happens before June 1 or $5.5M if he was shipped off after June 1. Given those unsizable savings, its hard to imagine that the Bears will trade away Foles, unless a team is truly desperate for a quarterback.

Given the Bears' late first-round pick in the upcoming draft, barely any spending money, and no definitive upgrades on the free agent market, it may be difficult to upgrade the quarterback position without a trade being made. Rumors have been swirling around the Windy City that Chicago has a package in place to land either QB Russell Wilson or QB Deshaun Watson. If either of them are somehow brought in, the 27th ranked pace of play should see an uptick in play-calling. The Bears rarely utilized play-action and relied more heavily on outside-zone run blocking schemes. They did this to get RB David Montgomery in space.

When approaching David Montgomery in upcoming fantasy football drafts, proceed with caution. Much of Montgomery’s success last season was attributed to a combination of a cupcake schedule, positive game script, and Tyreek Cohen's absence due to a torn ACL. Heading into the 2021 season, the cast on the Bears' offensive line should be back and healthy. The fear with going high on Montgomery is that we simply don't know how Cohen will be worked into this offense. Cohen is still under contract, so he may eat into Montgomery's passing down role. Given the talent in the running back room, it remains clear and obvious that this Chicago's biggest needs are at quarterback and wide receiver.

HC Matt Nagy and GM Ryan Pace are on a short leash. If Chicago did not make the playoffs, it was highly unlikely that they would have been brought back in 2021. Nagy and Pace simply don't have the flexibility or time to acquire draft picks and develop them. Thankfully, they still have a shot at retaining WR Allen Robinson. On March 9, the Bears placed a franchise tag worth $18M on WR Allen Robinson. Over the last three seasons with the Bears, Robinson made 255 catches for 3,151 yards and 17 touchdowns. Robinson’s production with bad quarterback after bad quarterback keep him on the WR1/2 border. Coming into the season severely underrated, he finished as WR12 in PPR leagues. The question that remains up in the air is does Robinson sit out and force a trade? If Robinson goes that route, it leaves Chicago with little to work with. WR Darnell Mooney was the king of air yards, and slot man WR Anthony Miller struggled to maintain consistency throughout the duration of the 2020 season.

Chicago’s front office is a hot mess. They paid 34-year old Jimmy Graham $16M, making him the 5th highest paid TE in the league. With Cole Kmet coming alive in the second half of the season, Graham could become a cap casualty, saving $7.5M in cap space. If this does happen, keep an eye on Kmet in fantasy drafts. He will be targeted quite often in this offense in the middle of the field and in the red zone.

Defensive Needs

DC Chuck Pagano is out and will be replaced by Sean Desai. Desai is 37 years young and will get his first crack at being a defensive coordinator. This move was an in-house hire, so we can expect the Bears to implement much of the same blended zone and man schemes they used last season.

The Bears are blessed to have Kyle Fuller and Jaylen Johnson, two of the best cornerbacks in the NFL. Where the Bears were constantly picked on though, was in the slot, behind the untalented former Jet, CB Buster Skrine. The Bears released Skrine, saving $2.7M in cap space. Slot corner will be a position the Bears need to address in free agency, or the draft if they do not want it to be a screaming weakness in 2021. Chicago may lose S Tashaun Gipson to free agency as well. Several secondary holes may need to be filled in 2021.

With Khalil Mack, Robert Quinn and Barkevious Mingo, the Bears are just one edge rusher away from being truly dominant across the defensive line. The return of Eddie Goldman following a COVID opt-out should make this unit even better, assuming the Bears do not cut Akiem Hicks to save $10.5M. The Bears at solid at linebacker. 2018 first-round pick Roquan Smith is an emerging superstar up the middle. However, 31-year-old LB Danny Trevathan is a liability at this stage in his career. A rookie linebacker would make sense as an eventual replacement and 2021 depth option. Overall, the Bears have the potential to be a top-10 run defense, but there remain some moving parts to sort out.

Too Long Didn't Read Version

The Chicago Bears need a new quarterback to achieve success in 2021. You don't need to do much research to come to that conclusion. The Bears truly dropped the ball by picking up Trubisky in the same draft where Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson were available.

Slot corner and strong safety remain glaring weaknesses for this defensive unit. The Bears should also consider upgrading their guards to help improve the running game and overall quarterback play.

Chicago will have a hard time achieving success in 2021. Time is ticking on the Ryan Pace and Matt Nagy tenure. Thirsty for a franchise QB, they may be willing to go far beyond any other team's trade propositions. NFL teams are only allowed to trade draft picks for the next three drafts, with the exception of trades that happen during the live draft. In theory, the Bears can offer up their first round picks for the next three drafts, and if this is decided during the draft, they can offer up four. The level of desperation this organization would need to be to do that is another question. Who knows, maybe this franchise is already there, but it is ironic to see them pursue Watson after passing on him in the draft in the first place.