Carolina Panthers: Offseason Wants, Needs & Preview

theoptimaltake
Apr 17, 2021
12 min read

Updated: Apr 18, 2021

Opening Lines:

Super Bowl Odds: +5,000 (50:1)

NFC Championship Winners: +2,500 (25:1)

NFC South Division Winners: +650 (6.5:1)

Win Total: 7.5, -110 (0.91:1)

2020 Recap

Carolina came into the 2020 off-season knowing their obvious weakness was on the defensive side of the ball. Following the loss of veteran defensive leaders Thomas Davis, Luke Kuechly, and James Bradberry, the Panthers spent seven draft picks on various defensive needs in 2020. While this unit struggled in the first half of the season, we did see some improvements over the second half of the season. The Carolina Panthers wrapped up 2020 at 5-11 with one of the youngest rosters and coaching staff in the NFL. After a complete roster overhaul, expectations were low for Carlina heading into the 2020 season. However, they overachieved and were able to see more success than originally thought. Despite never holding a head coaching position at the NFL level, Matt Rhule was able to maximize the talent on this roster.

The biggest question heading into the 2021 season is who will be the quarterback under center in Week 1. Teddy Bridgewater signed a contract prior to the 2020 season, but Carolina had been linked to almost every available quarterback on the market this offseason. The NFL rumor mill was running wild with whispers about the possibility of high-end caliber quarterbacks Deshaun Watson, Russel Wilson, or Dak Prescott ending up in Carolina. The Panthers were also linked to moving up in the draft to select a top rookie. Yet, this franchise ended up with Sam Darnold. The Cowboys finally decided to pay Prescott, Seattle wasn't ready to give up Wilson, and the dumpster fire of a franchise that is the Texans was busy burning Watson's career to the ground. Once the dust settled following the free agency frenzy, the 49ers traded up to the third overall pick in the upcoming draft, which solidified that they were going after a rookie quarterback. In turn, the Panthers ended up trading three picks to the Jets for Sam Darnold.

It's no secret that the Panthers made an offer to the Lions to bring in Matthew Stafford but ultimately couldn’t come to the right terms for his services. Owner David Tepper said the most important thing for a successful franchise is a stand-out quarterback, head coach, and general manager. After just one season, Bridgewater showed that he wasn't the stand-out quarterback this offense needs to succeed. Now we're left waiting to see if the Panthers can fix a broken Sam Darnold. Let it be known that this offense looks on pace to explode in 2021. Despite having 3 different receivers surpass 1,000 total yards each (Robby Anderson, D.J. Moore, and Curtis Samuel), the Panthers still finished 28th overall in red-zone trips. With a healthy Christian McCaffrey returning to the lineup and a potential upgrade to the quarterback position, the Panthers may be poised to contend for a playoff spot.

2021 Outlook

Let’s begin by saying the Panthers are lucky to have one of the brightest up-and-coming offensive coordinators in the NFL. When the Panthers lost Christian McCaffery for most of the season, Mike Davis filled in admirably before fizzling out down the latter stretch of the season. Thanks to Joe Brady's remarkable play-calling, Bridgewater, Moore, Anderson, and Samuel all set career highs in yards last season. Carolina must take advantage of Brady while he is still around. It would be surprising if he wasn’t highly sought after to fill in a 2022 head coaching vacancy.

Teddy Bridgewater’s physical limitations held this offense back as they moved at the 28th slowest pace of play. Bridgewater averaged just 16 points per game in 2020 and struggled to score, finishing 29th in the NFL in red-zone efficiency. So where do the Panthers go from here? The writing is on the wall for Teddy Covers. “Teddy has tremendous talent around him, and we must get better play out of the quarterback position," Matt Rhule said after a late-season loss. With the acquisition of Darnold, the Panthers have to make a decision on what to do with Bridgewater. We did some digging on his contract situation and unfortunately for the Panthers, Bridgewater cannot be cut at this time without leaving a hefty dead money cap hit. If the Panthers can’t move him and decide to cut him prior to June 1, it would cost them $10M in dead cap money. If the Panthers can find a trading partner, it would provide Carolina with $13M in cap relief. The Panthers would be wise to trade him, but regardless of whether Bridgewater stays or goes, this is Darnold's team going forward given the draft capital this team just invested in him.

Will the Panthers pick up Darnold's 5th-year option or roll the dice just as the Bears did with Mitchell Trubisky? If they do not pick it up prior to the 2021 kick-off, it could end up costing the Panthers more in the long run. If Darnold proves to be successful in his departure from the Jets, the Panthers could find themselves in a Dak Prescott type of situation.

Sam Darnold's Fantasy Outlook

Those who believe in Sam Darnold will point to Ryan Tannehill who is coming off a career-best one year removed from Adam Gase. The argument could be made that in 38 career starts, a rotation of 38 different starting WRs is not a recipe for success for anyone, let alone a young quarterback. Critics will point to the Monday Night game when Darnold claimed to be seeing ghosts in the New England Patriots defense. Darnold was the most touted quarterback coming out of the hyped 2018 class but never lived up to the bill.

Going after Darnold was a gamble the Panthers were willing to make. Darnold wasn't particularly good in his first two seasons and he pretty much regressed across the board in 2020. His stat line in 2020 featured a 9 to 11 TD:INT ratio along with a career-worst six yards per attempt. CBS Sports' Chris Towers explains, "Among 28 quarterbacks with at least 1,200 pass attempts over the first three seasons of their career since 2000, Darnold's 6.64 yards per attempt is the seventh-lowest; his touchdown rate of 3.7% is the fourth-lowest; and his interception rate of 3.2% is the seventh-highest.” Just about every stat line for Darnold shows he has had a rough start to his career, especially since he was selected third overall. With a top-tier running back, better weapons, and better coaching staff, will Darnold finally be in a position to succeed?

Wide Receiver Inspection

Talent at the wide receiver position is not in question on this offensive unit. D.J. Moore and Robby Anderson are two of the best combinations at receiver in the league. The duo traded on and off for big game production throughout the season. This certainly made it hard to identify which option to start in DFS. However, these two are screaming value for fantasy football GMs heading into the 2021 season.

Curtis Samuel was a jack of all trades after the unfortunate injury to Christian McCaffrey last season. Samuel was difficult to game plan for in 2020 given his versatility. He was used as a slot receiver, a running back, and a goal-line back. Considering age, talent, and game plan unpredictability, it is very rare for a team to spend such high capital at three different WR positions. Unfortunately, the Panthers were unable to retain Samuel with how high his price tag was. The Panthers were so thirsty for a franchise quarterback that they had let Samuel walk.

Now, the Panthers have little to nothing at receiver behind Moore and Anderson. The Panthers did sign David Moore who brings another Red Zone target to Carolina. The Panthers also know eventually they are going to have to extend Moore to a very lucrative contract sooner rather than later.

D.J Moore's Fantasy Outlook

D.J. Moore has been outstanding and is one of the game's most underrated receivers at just 24 years old. With a potential boatload of targets available, we could assume that Moore and Anderson should achieve greater success in 2021. Following Washington's signing of the "Brooklyn Bullet” aka Curtis Samuel, all of the remaining receivers in Carolina will see a boost in target share unless a free agent/draft pick is brought in.

Let's time travel back to 2019, Moore's breakout season. Two years ago, Moore skyrocketed to WR8 in scoring from Weeks 1-15. He was third in the league in receiving yards, fourth in the league in targets, fifth in receptions and seventh in air yards.

Moving forward to 2020, Moore capped off the season as the WR25 in 15 games. He saw a total of 113 targets, 66 catches for 1,193 yards and four touchdowns. Moore averaged 9.5 yards per target in 2020. However, he improved on his average depth of target from nine to 11 last year. Arriving in the red zone at the 28th worst margin is not something we should see repeat itself again. More trips to the red zone will surely help the young receiver. Moore certainly has competition for targets in 2021, but could emerge as a top-12 receiver after posting two 1,000-yard seasons in his first two years in the NFL.

Robby Anderson's Fantasy Outlook

Reuniting with Darnold, Robby Anderson is coming off a career year in which he finished as PPR WR19. In 2020, he was 8th in receptions and 13th in receiving yardage. Anderson had an outstanding season with 136 targets and 95 receptions but disappointed with only three touchdowns. His average depth of target did drop by three yards. If we can get the same amount of yards plus five or six touchdowns out of each of these receivers, they will easily smash fantasy draft positions.

Bridgewater was conservative and afraid to push the ball in contested situations. Most would consider the biggest beneficiary of the Sam Darnold trade to be Anderson. When the two played together in NY, Anderson averaged 95 targets per season, and the duo put up 11 touchdowns in 2019.

The Remainders

David Moore signed with Carolina this off-season and should provide a red zone threat for his new team. He could be a decent sleeper if someone were to get hurt, and maybe a valuable asset in DFS if he has a bad cornerback matchup. The Panthers have little else on the roster that can contribute at this time.

Tight End Inspection

At the tight end position, Ian Thomas has done little in his career to prove he is worthy of starting on an NFL roster. Despite Greg Olsen's departure, Thomas finished with just 145 yards on the season. Those kinds of numbers weren't going to cut it. As a result, the Panthers went on to sign Dan Arnold away from the Cardinals. Arnold came alive late in the season but was productive in the touchdown department for Kyler Murray. Although Darnold has rarely targeted tight ends, Arnold should still provide another red-zone target for him. To be fair, Darnold hasn’t had much talent at this tight end position in the first few years of his career. We shouldn't be surprised if Carolina still opts to draft a tight end in the 2021 draft.

Running Back Inspection

Mike Davis was a pleasant surprise last season. Davis tallied up 1,015 total yards in relief for injured starter Christian McCaffrey. Davis is now with the Falcons and CMC is locked and loaded, ready for take-off. The number one overall pick in 2020 fantasy football drafts will be back in the same spot come the 2021 draft season.

With little depth behind him, “Run CMC” is set for another 300-touch season. According to PFF, CMC is the second-highest graded receiving running back since 2017 (93.4). McCaffrey is capable of showing off as a wide receiver and as a running back. It's incredible to watch the way he carries the ball between tackles and breaks off big chunks on the ground with his speed. Very few running backs have his skill set, age, target share, 3-down time, pass-catching floor, and red-zone opportunity. When he's been healthy, McCaffrey has averaged 20 rushes and 6 catches per game. In fantasy football, running backs with that kind of floor and upside do not grow on trees. CMC's success is even more remarkable once you consider the circumstances under which he has achieved it. On paper, the Panthers offensive line is one of the bottom-five in the league. Plus, the star has played with poor quarterbacks. With a potential improvement at the quarterback position, could this season be McCaffrey's best yet?

Offensive Line Inspection

The Panthers offensive line will be a work in progress with a bunch of new faces come the start of the 2021 season. LT Russell Okung, RT Taylor Moton (franchise tagged), LG Chris Reed, and RG John Miller are all set for free agency. Huge concerns remain surrounding who will be brought back in the revamped offensive line. To make matters worse, starting C Matt Paradis is a potential cut candidate who would save the Panthers $5M.

Six out of the seven offensive linemen from the 2020 roster are heading into free agency. The only saving grace is 2019 second-round pick Greg Little will return this year after missing all of 2020. The offensive line is a screaming need for this team heading into the 2021 season. The Panthers have already attempted to address this need by signing Pat Elflein and Cameron Erving. However, they may look to use multiple draft picks to further upgrade this unit.

Defense Inspection

Capturing a division title is the easiest route for a team to qualify for the playoffs. Unfortunately, in the NFC South, playing mostly zone defense is not going to fool anybody. Tom Brady, Drew Brees, and Matt Ryan have played long enough to eat a young defense like Carolina alive. The Panthers finished 24th in passing defense last season and must look to improve the cornerback play.

Safety Jeremy Chinn really showed off last season and adding pieces around him can only help him reach new heights. Tre Boston and Juston Burris will return as the other safety options, but the secondary remains a huge concern. Donte Jackson filled in as the No. 1 cornerback once James Bradberry departed via free agency to the New York Giants. Jackson was solid, but the glaring weaknesses of this unit were soon-to-be free agents Rasul Douglas and Corn Elder. Both Douglas and Elder were picked on in coverage. The Panthers have tried to address this need by signing veteran A.J. Bouye after he was cut by the Broncos. He will be suspended for the first two games of the 2021 season for a violation that occurred in 2020. The Panthers also signed Rashaan Melvin after a disappointing one-year stint in Detroit. New General Manager Scott Fitterer comes from the Seattle Seahawks who have had a tendency to build around tall, physical cornerbacks. These two additions are tall corners that fit that prototype.

As far as rushing defense goes, the Panthers were abysmal. 2020 free-agent acquisition Shaq Thompson was a one-man show. The Panthers had little else on the roster to help him at linebacker once running backs reached the second level of the defense. The Panthers finished 20th overall in rushing defense but should improve with a clean bill of health to Derrick Brown, Kawann Short, and Zach Kerr. For any measurable success, Carolina is going to need more than 3 starts out of Short in 2021. To top it all off, Luke Kuechly's rush-stopping presence was severely missed in 2020. He was the captain of this defensive unit for many years.

Now let's identify where we can see some improvements in 2020. We'll highlight LB Brian Burns, DE Yetur Gross-Matos, and DT Derrick Brown. Even though the unit finished at 21st in adjusted sack rate, they did start to click in the latter part of the season. These three players are very talented and can be on the path to success with more continuity and talent surrounding them. The Panthers signed Haason Reddick who should help with applying pressure to the quarterback.

2021 Draft Outlook

HC Matt Rhule is known for taking on fixer-upper teams. In college, Rhule took over a talentless Temple team and turned that program around very quickly. Rhule parlayed that success and took his coaching expertise to Baylor who had been going through NCAA sanctions for years. In spite of all that, Rhule made them one of the most successful college programs in the country.

Rhule definitely had his hands full entering the 2020 season but proved he could maximize talent and have his team compete in almost every game. 2020 was an emotional year for the Panthers who let go of Cam Newton, Greg Olsen, Thomas Davis, and Luke Kuechly. Divorces can get messy, but Carolina has gotten through the worst of the mess. Moving on will depend on a few important tweaks on defense to linebacker, edge rusher, and cornerback. The Panthers have begun to address these needs through free agency.

On the offensive side of the ball, finding a franchise quarterback is one of the most difficult things to do in all of football. Teddy Covers had been okay, but okay is not enough to take this team to the Super Bowl. Now we'll see if Joe Brady can bring out the talent in Sam Darnold.

Speaking of Darnold, one of the most important things to keep in mind heading into the draft is how this team plans to protect him with such a weak offensive line. These moves ultimately will not only impact the protection of the new quarterback but will also provide rushing lanes for Christian McCaffrey. The Panthers have a very young exciting team and could just have enough firepower to be a sneaky playoff team in 2021.

Top Draft Needs:

1. Offensive Guard: Even though the Carolina Panthers managed to bring John Miller back and acquire free agents Pat Elflein and Cam Erving, it is essential they make the most out of the deep offensive line class entering the NFL this year. Getting one or two recruits on the interior is worth considering with the bigger picture in mind. The current options on the roster are more of a band-aid fix than a long-term solution.

2. Depth: The Panthers need to find depth at wide receiver, cornerback, defensive tackle, and edge rusher. Each of these positions could be addressed in the upcoming draft.

2021 NFL Draft

The Panthers are scheduled to enter the 2021 NFL Draft with the following 8 selections:

• First-Round Pick, 8th overall

• Second-Round Pick, 39th overall

• Third-Round Pick, 73rd overall

• Fourth-Round Pick, 113th overall

• Fifth-Round Pick, 151st overall

• Sixth-Round Pick, 193rd overall

• Sixth-Round Pick (comp), 222nd overall

• Sixth-Round Pick (comp), 226th overall

** Please note one of the 6th round picks will be headed to the Jets in exchange for Sam Darnold.