Atlanta Falcons: Offseason Wants, Needs & Preview

[Finished 4-12 Overall]

The Atlanta Falcons are in a peculiar situation entering the 2021 season. They are projected to be $32M over the cap with limited flexibility with current players. This will force management to get creative with the current construction of the roster. The Falcons are set to draft at fourth overall in the upcoming draft. However, Roger Goodell shouldn't expect many phone calls from the dirty birds this season due to their lack of overall picks.

Offensive Needs

The Falcons are under new management in the front office. GM Terry Fontenot comes from New Orleans where he spent the last 18 years. Another addition, HC Arthur Smith, comes from the Tennessee Titans where he was the Offensive Coordinator from 2019-2020. Arthur Smith revolutionized QB Ryan Tannehill's career with the play-action pass and smash-mouth style of football led behind RB Derrick Henry.

Trade rumors have been stirring regarding QB Matt Ryan, but at 35 going on 36, and at such a high cap number it's easier said than done. Moving Ryan wouldn’t create much cap space as his dead money would still count toward this season. Ultimately, the potential benefit of that trade wouldn't be felt until the 2023 season. At the fourth overall pick in the upcoming draft, the Falcons can stay put and draft Matt Ryan’s successor in Zach Wilson or Justin Fields, or potentially trade down to add depth to a number of pressing needs. Drafting in the top 4 is not something this franchise has done frequently, so acquiring a young and impressive quarterback is an opportunity they should definitely consider. The Falcons will have a lot of new faces as they try to rebuild while still being contenders with the current roster.

The Falcons' running back situation is up in the air as both RB Todd Gurley and RB Brian Hill are free agents, and are not expected to be brought back. With limited cap flexibility, it will be difficult for the Falcons to bring in a top-tier running back through free agency. It is looking unlikely that they'll be able to pay up for RB Aaron Jones or RB Leonard Fournette, but they could make a play at RB Mike Davis or RB Wayne Gallman.

The Falcons have one of the best sets of offensive weapons in the NFL in WRs Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley, Russell Gage, and Hayden Hurst. However, depth is an issue as each of them has missed some time due to injuries over the course of the 2020 season. Even with the injury concerns though, this is likely not the most pressing need for a team that can still put up points.

The offensive line is a tricky situation for the Falcons as they have truly improved over the past few seasons by acquiring the correct personnel through free agency and the draft. On paper, they look great. However, for the offensive line as a whole, staying healthy has been difficult. Plus, there are other areas of concern as well. Some of the sacks metrics are a combination of increased passing volume, negative game scripts, and Matt Ryan holding on to the ball for too long. The Falcons could look to improve at guard. As far as free agents go, this offseason C Alex Mack is eligible and could command a decent amount of money due to his talent, but could be limited by his age.

Defensive Needs

The Falcons' most significant overall issue is in the secondary woes. Keanu Neal has been a solid safety but has had issues dressing on game day just as many members of this team. Neal is going to be an interesting case because he is eligible for free agency and the Falcons are hard-pressed to find cap space. The NFC south is the wrong division to be weak at cornerback and A.J Terrell was downright wretched to start the season. It didn't help that Terrell was never originally part of the draft plan last season. The Falcons were planning to go for a certain wide receiver that the cowboys sniped in the pick before them. Thankfully, Terrell did improve over the course of the season despite all of that. Even still, he can't do it alone and 2 of the 3 starters at corner are free agents. It's unlikely that the franchise will bring them back because they were awful. The next men up for the Falcons are even worse. Kendall Sheffield and Isaiah Oliver are two of the worst cover cornerbacks in the NFL. This team desperately needs some quality cornerbacks if they have any hope of improvements in the 21-22 season.

Arguably just as important as the secondary, edge rusher is an instrumental need for the Falcons. With the cap being as limited as it is, one glaring player who can be moved is DE Dante Fowler, Jr. Moving on from the underperforming pass rusher would save this franchise $18M in cap space. Fowler is overpaid and has underperformed especially considering what the Falcons have given up for him. DE Takkarist McKinley has been a bust and DE Victor Beasley has been equally terrible. This is something they must address given the high power offenses of the NFC south. The Falcons were not as bad against the run, but they've been atrocious against pass-catching backs for years.

Too Long Didn't Read Version

It will be interesting to see if Matt Ryan keeps his starter role and how much improvement will truly be done to the defense. If they do stay at 4, do they draft a rookie quarterback who could take over at some point in the season? Keep in mind, the worse the defense, the more volume the pass-catchers will get in negative game script.

Aside from the obvious need for changes on defense, look for new HC Arthur Smith to find a running back to improve the Falcons' terrible run game. They averaged 95 rushing yards per game which was the 27th worst in the league. For fantasy purposes, it would be ideal for the Falcons to spend a pretty penny on a running back instead of on a defensive player. However, the shape of the current defensive roster just doesn't make that a likely scenario. More than likely they will sign either Mike Davis or Wayne Gallman and draft a running back to eventually take over in the middle rounds.