AFC South | Offseason Biggest Winners and Losers

Tennessee Titans - Jacksonville Jaguars - Houston Texans - Indianapolis Colts

Tennessee Titans

Winner: AJ Brown

With the departure of Corey Davis, Adam Humphries, and Jonnu Smith, the Titans have 223 available targets entering the 2021 season. In just two seasons, AJ Brown has emerged as one of the best receivers in the NFL. You couldn't tell by the way he balled out, but Brown was battling with a serious knee injury all season. Over the span of 14 games, Brown secured 70 balls for 1,075 yards and 11 touchdowns, which led to his selection to the Pro Bowl. Targets have always been the issue in Brown's career; he has seen nine or more targets a game only nine times over the course of two years. Moving forward, Brown is in line for a huge target share and could explode as an easy top-5 wide receiver with little to no competition for targets around him.

Loser: Ryan Tannehill

The exit of many of the Titans' pass catchers is like a double-edged sword. The departure benefits AJ Brown's fantasy value, but significantly diminishes the value of Ryan Tannehill. Plus, former offensive coordinator and new Falcons HC Arthur Smith's exit will only shake things up in Tennessee more for QB Ryan Tannehill. The Titans will now turn to Todd Downing to call plays, and his style is quite different from his predecessor. Smith was able to establish the run with Derrick Henry and then use play-action passing, which was when Tannehill truly showcased his skills. Tannehill finished 4th in the NFL when throwing out of play-action. Unfortunately for Titans fans, when Downing was an offensive coordinator for the Raiders, he only called play-action 14% of the time. Now put all of those factors together along with losing key weapons, and the upside of this offensive attack isn't looking so hot entering 2021.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Winner: Trevor Lawerence

The most highly touted prospect entering the league since Andrew Luck is deserving of all the hype that he is receiving. Trevor Lawrence finished his college football career with a 52-2 overall record, throwing 90 touchdowns in 40 games. He also added on 18 rushing touchdowns, making him a unique prospect. Lawrence slides into an improved offensive line, a solid running back group, and a very deep wide receiver room. The future is bright for him, but doubters may point to the fact that historically, only five rookie quarterbacks have finished in the top-16 overall at the position since 2014. One of those five is 2020 ROTY Justin Herbert. As a rookie, Herbert put on quite the performance, though he was initially undervalued at the position. The pressure is on for Lawrence to ball out and change the fate of the Jacksonville Jaguars.

Loser(s): James Robinson/D.J Chark

James Robinson was a one-way ticket to the championship round for many fantasy football players. As an undrafted free agent, Robinson outright stole the starting role from Leonard Fournette in the 2020 training camp. Despite overcoming the odds of a poor roster and a team that finished with a 1-15 record, Robinson's future as a starter is shaky, to say the least. He'll have some major adversity to overcome in 2021 with the arrival of a new coaching staff and a rookie running back who played with Trevor Lawrence in college.

Despite what new HC Urban Meyer said after drafting rookie first-round pick Travis Etienne, this doesn't appear to be a good situation for Robinson. Given the chemistry that Lawrence and Etienne had in college, it's hard to believe that Etienne would be restricted to only 3-down catching duties. Etienne may be in line for a ton of targets lining up as a wide receiver as well. It's noteworthy that Lawrence led all of CFB with screens on passing downs, throwing 1,758 balls on those plays. We also have to factor in the arrival of Carlos Hyde, a former Ohio State college player under Urban Meyer. A combination of Hyde and Etienne will cloud the outlook of Robinson.

DJ Chark enters the final year of his contract and could very well be Lawrence's No. 1. The issue with him is that his competition since last season has grown that much tougher. The Jaguars have brought in Marvin Jones who had success under new Jaguars OC Darrell Bevell in Detroit for several years. Last season, Laviska Shenault played a Swiss Army Knife-type role and he could be used in a variety of different ways moving forward. To make things even more complicated, the Jaguars have brought in Tim Tebow, an interesting wild card in the tight end package along with Tyler Eifert. While Chark has potential, he has only had one good season out of his three years in the NFL. He may be better suited for the No. 2 role in the offense.

Houston Texans

Winner: Nico Collins

We have to start off by saying the Texans had one of the worst offseasons of any team in recent memory, so classifying anyone as a winner isn’t exactly something to be proud of. With that said, Houston traded their fourth-round 109th overall pick and fifth-round 158th overall pick along with a 2022 fourth-rounder to the Carolina Panthers for the 89th overall pick. With that selection, the Texans drafted Nico Collins out of Michigan. Clearly, they saw something they liked in the 6'4" prospect. Collins lacks in speed but is a big target who can easily slide into the No. 1 hole left by Will Fuller and currently held by oft-injured Brandin Cooks. At the end of the day, fantasy football is all about luck, opportunity, and talent. Collins' team isn’t great, but that just means they will pass more than most teams. Collins may have lucked himself into an organization with such little talent that he can contribute immediately.

Loser: Deshaun Watson

Rumored to be traded prior to the NFL draft, Deshaun Watson's off-field troubles ended any chance of that happening. It is assumed that Watson has played his last down as a Texan. However, the question that remains is: once the legal issues clear up, where and when will he be on the field again? At this point, it shouldn’t shock anybody if he does not play a single down of football in 2021. This is a situation to monitor for the rest of the summer.

Indianapolis Colts

Winner: Carson Wentz

Carson Wentz finds himself reunited with HC Frank Reich, with whom he almost won the MVP when Reich was the offensive coordinator of the Philadelphia Eagles. Last year, several things went wrong in Philadelphia, including a lack of weapons, injuries, and a strained relationship with HC Doug Pederson. The Colts were and still are a good team. Let's not forget, they were just a score away from defeating the Buffalo Bills in Wild Card Weekend.

The Colts took advantage of the NFL's easiest schedule in 2020. Moving forward, their schedule appears to be more difficult on paper, and the offensive line took a hit with LT Anthony Costanzo retiring. Former Chiefs LT Eric Fisher has been brought in as a replacement but recovery from a late-season ACL injury could make or break the overall success of the offensive line.

The Colts do have plenty of weapons surrounding Wentz, but who knows if that will be enough to turn around the mess that Wentz has become. A big part of his downfall has been confidence, which will be hard to fix. However, his former fans in Philly are rooting for him to do well. If Carson Wentz plays either 75% or more of the offensive snaps in 2021 or plays 70% of the offensive snaps in 2021 and the Colts reach the playoffs, that 2022 conditional second-round pick turns into a first-rounder. Either way, moving on from the Eagles is a victory for Wentz, and replacing Philip Rivers is also a victory for the Colts.

Loser: Offensive Unit Overall

GM Chris Ballard has had great offseasons over the past few years, but this past year was not one of them. Edge rusher was a need for the Colts in the first round, but doubling down and drafting another edge rusher in the third round left many questions. There is a huge hole to be filled at left tackle, what is the plan moving forward? If Eric Fisher is not 100% healthy, it could really hurt Wentz's chance of success in Indy.

The Colts also made some questionable moves in re-signing Marlon Mack and TY Hilton and drafting a tight end in the fourth round. Why limit the growth of potential breakout candidates Michael Pittman, Jonathan Taylor, and Mo-Alie Cox? The talent is not of question in these young studs, but their ceilings will be harder to reach with the older players still holding spots on the roster in 2021.