Super Bowl LV: 30 Facts

Fact 1: This is the first Super Bowl to feature a home team. This Super Bowl is unique with late travel, no media, and rehab for injuries at respective home facilities. Coaches will dive in and have extra prep time to find optimal ways to succeed on both offense and defense. Whether or not these teams exploit each other's weaknesses, we'll go over what is imperative to them winning or losing. One team's strength is obvious. The other has a chance to win but may need to play differently than they usually do.

Fact 2: The Bucs run the ball on first down more than any other team in the NFL around 64%. They pass more on second and third down than any other team in the NFL. The one weakness the Chiefs have on defense is covering TEs, RBs, and slot WRs. The Bucs need to play aggressively and pass more than usual, stay short, and go for it on fourth down. We will explain this further down the stretch. This is one of the many keys to success when watching this game. Will they adjust?

Fact 3: You obviously do not need us to tell you that how the Chiefs offensive line holds up against the Bucs defensive line will be imperative to this game. Will Andy Reid continue his pass-first mentality? Will he change the Chiefs game plan and go more run-heavy to protect Mahomes? Will the Chiefs use more pre-snap motion, attack the middle of the field with play-action, and spread the Bucs out with 3 and 4 WR sets to negate the Bucs pass rush? Will the Chiefs use non-designed QB runs, and reversed which are clear weaknesses of the Bucs defense?

Fact 4: When The Bucs had the ball, they were most successful on offense from Weeks 15-17 when they passed first and asked questions second. The rest of the season they ran mainly to the tune of 2.6 yards per carry on first down. When the Bucs passed on third down they were successful in gaining 1st downs on 67% of the time. With Brady at quarterback, this shouldn’t be a surprise. The Chiefs are one of the best 3rd down defenses in the NFL only allowing a first down on 26% of plays. The league average for perspective is 36%.

***Crazy Fact 5: The Bucs need to come out firing as Mahomes is 31-0 with a lead at half time in his career with normal rest.

Fact 6: Tampa Bay should use play-action more. Everyone is expecting them to run and Brady averages 10.6 yards per attempt using play-action compared to 7.2 without it. They especially should use it with a double TE set (12 personnel). The Bucs have a 61% success rate compared to a 49% success rate when implementing this strategy.

Fact 7: The Chiefs allow the 7th most successful rate when facing tight ends. Brate and Gronk can feast!

Fact 8: The Bucs defensive line is great, let does not kid ourselves. However, it may surprise you to learn the Chiefs defense is best in the league in pressure rate on first downs. The Chiefs defense has really come to life lately and one underlying factor was how great they performed on 3rd downs last week. Josh Allen was just 2-of-9 on 3rd downs last week and was pressured on 80% or drop backs last week. The Bills coming into the game were one of the best offenses in the NFL.

Fact 9: The Bucs need to tone down long passes on the outside and go with 0 to 1 step dropbacks to RBs, slot WRs, and TEs. We will explain why further down.

Fact 10: When the Chiefs have the ball they need to just abandon the run entirely. It is not optimal in this matchup. The Chiefs have dialed up 80% passes on first down. This was the highest rate of any team this season on first down.

When teams go pass-heavy against the Bucs they struggle. Let's go over a couple of scenarios that illustrate the Bucs weakness to the pass. First up, their last meeting with the Chiefs who were up 20-7 at the end of the first quarter in the last meeting. Then, the Bucs outright lost to the bears and the Rams who went over 75% passing. Plus, they were trailing 17-0 at halftime to the falcons in Week 17. Atlanta for some reason went run-heavy in the second half, turned the ball over, and ultimately lost. They may have had plans for Cabo or something? Washington also went pass-heavy and had success, though this may have been because they had a backup Taylor Heinicke in and had little time to properly game plan. Ultimately, they lost by 2 but were 11 point dogs so many didn’t peg them for much success.

Fact 11: The Bucs are 24th worst in the NFL against the deep pass. The Bucs also struggle versus pre-snap motion which the Chiefs use at the highest rate in the NFL.

Fact 12: Look for the Chiefs to exploit the middle of the field. Cheetah was unmatched on second down catching 5 passes for 90 yards! A quick strike spread out game plan will be ideal for the Chiefs to have success against the Bucs. Look for plenty of 3 WR and 4 WR sets to neutralize the Bucs' huge defensive line advantage.

Fact 13: The Bucs have faced the fewest designed play runs of any team in the NFL. They've met with only nine teams in this situation this season, yet they've given a ton of success to signal-callers. Just take a look at Taysom Hill and the Saints. That boy ate.

Fact 14: The last time the Chiefs went over 75% pass-heavy against a team aside from the Bucs was when they were dusting the Jets 35-9 at half time.

Fact 15: You may be wondering how the Chiefs were able to have so much success against the Bucs in Week 12? Let’s deep dive at play selection-

Buccs average defense on the season: - No pre-snap motion, no play-action - 6.9 yards per attempt (ypa) - No pre-snap, play-action - 6.8 ypa - Yes pre-snap, no play-action - 6.1 ypa - Yes pre-snap, yes play-action - 9.2 ypa

Chiefs vs. everyone else average: - No pre-snap motion, no play-action - 7.9 ypa - No pre-snap, play-action - 7.9 ypa - Yes pre-snap, no play-action - 6.6 ypa - Yes pre-snap, yes play-action - 9.6 ypa

Chiefs vs. Bucs Week 12: - No pre-snap motion, no play-action - 8 yards per attempt - No pre-snap, play-action - 6 ypa - Yes pre-snap, no play-action - 6.6 ypa - Yes pre-snap, yes play-action - 13.7 ypa

Fact 16: Guess who’s best in the league at pre-snap motion? If you guess the Jets you are incorrect. Tyreek Hill has 269 yards and 20.7 yards per catch. Kelce has 82 yards and 10.3 yards per catch. How can they be stopped other than an immense amount of prayers? We may have one answer.

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Fact 17: Did you know Mahomes is good at football? Crazy right? When facing man coverage he averages 9.3 yards per attempt.

Fact 18: The Bucs mainly play man defense at one of the highest rates in the NFL. The last time they played the Chiefs they attempted to play zone. The Bucs only played zone more than man against the Lions and Washington. In both of these cases, they were facing backup QBs. When Mahomes faced the Bucs in man, he achieved success with 7.7 yards per attempt, and 17.9 yards per attempt vs zone.

Fact 19: The only way to somewhat slow Mahomes down this year was playing cover 4 zones.

Mahomes vs cover 4- 4.5 ypa " vs cover 3 - 16.1 ypa " vs cover 2 - 9.2 ypa " vs cover 6 - 5.0 ypa

The Bucs mainly play cover 2 defense which allows Mahomes to throws for first downs on almost every attempt. Denver played cover 4 vs. Mahomes and they had a ton of success vs them. The Bucs have the second-worst pass defense in the NFL on first downs. The Bucs need to apply pressure in zone defense and force third downs.

Fact 20: As touched on previously the Bucs struggle vs nondesigned run plays. Mahomes ran four times for 28 yards the last time these two faced off. Mahomes' foot is apparently near 100% and the extra time at the facility will definitely pay dividends this week.

Twitter | @NFLResearch

Fact 21: Last year many people expected the 49ers to go run-heavy in the Super Bowl. They did the complete opposite with Jimmy G and had an immense amount of success. The Bucs would be wise to let Brady cook! The Bucs should confuse Spagnola with play-action passes as the Chiefs allow 10.6 yards per attempt on play-action passes. The Chiefs are extremely susceptible to play-action on first down allowing 12.0 yards per attempt on first down. This would catch the Chiefs off guard as they like others are expecting the run. A quick-release with short passes on zero to one step dropbacks is exactly what the Chiefs struggle with. The Bucs rarely do this and tend to go more 5 step dropbacks with Brady, who threw 3 interceptions on these exact types of passes last week against Green Bay. When facing 0 to 1 step dropbacks, the Chiefs allow 12.0 yards per attempt.

Fact 22: The Chiefs are much better when covering outside WRs, allowing just 3.0 yards per attempt compared to 9.8 yards when targeted in the slot.

Fact 23: The slot is where WRs like Chris Godwin can eat. Godwin averages 12.7 yards per catch from the slot. He was targeted 82 times out of 113 targets on the season from said position. Mike Evans has moved into the slot more this season, and scored twice from the slot last time in the game with the Chiefs. Evans on the year has only been targeted 47 times out of the slot of his 131 routes from the position.

Fact 24: The Chiefs have struggled against running back coverage and Leonard Fournette has had 10 catches over the past two weeks. James White 2.0 playoff Lenny has been Brady’s safety blanket lately. We expect much of the same success this week.

Fact 25: The Bucs have been bad vs the TE in coverage but have clamped down vs the TE in the red zone. Kelce can eat as the Bucs allow catches to TE 81% of the time this year. On the flip side though, the Bucs have been the best in the NFL in TE red zone coverage. Strange to me, but it is fact 25.

Fact 26: The Chiefs have faced 4 teams who have rushed the ball on them. Those teams include the Ravens, the Patriots, the Saints, and the Browns. While each of them has had success running the ball on the Chiefs, they faced a deficit of at least 14 points forcing them to abandon the run.

Fact 27: Don’t bet on the coin toss it’s negative EV. If you want to bet on a coin toss DM us and we'll take the VIG.

Fact 28: We spend too much time breaking down football.

Fact 29: The weather may impact the game, and many bettors have been known to take unders in this scenario. However, let’s have fun not go crazy getting carried away on underprops. We are witnessing two legends squaring off.

Fact 30: Pass rush, third-down stops, and using the strategies we went over to exploit each team's weaknesses will be key to winning this game. Will the Bucs make adjustments and play differently from their normal style? Or will the Chiefs steamroll them as they did in the last meeting? We shall find out Sunday!