Chris Ostrow's Optimal Plays: Super Bowl LV

We made it! Super Bowl LV is here and we got you covered with the most optimal takes for this week’s game. The Bucs enter this game with the first time benefit of home-field advantage in the Super Bowl. The Chiefs also sort of benefit by avoiding Super Bowl media week and Mahomes gets to rehab his green toe at his own training facility.

Realistically though, both teams have been taking advantage of the unique circumstances leading up to this year's Super Bowl. Tom Brady's wife and kids had left him alone for 12 days to focus on the game plan. The argument can be made that this benefits the defense. Both team's coaches will be locked away to create a game plan to slow down each team's offensive strengths. I imagine given the magnitude of this game, we may see some trickery here. This Super Bowl features two of the most creative coaches in the NFL. We know nothing will be left on the table.

The news about the Chief's offensive line injuries has been relentless. We've heard about the concerns day in and day out. The Chiefs will be down a starting left tackle, left guard, and right tackle. Will the Bucs defense be able to create pressure on this front? Or will the chiefs dial up plays to get the ball out of Mahomes hands quickly? These are the questions we will dive into.

So, how does Mahomes fair when facing pressure? Let's let the stats speak for themselves. Mahomes has the third-best QB rating in the league when facing clean pockets and still 13th best in the league when facing pressure. Of course, this anticipated pressure makes Mahomes more volatile than usual.

The Chiefs will have a rather difficult time moving the ball on the ground, and they may avoid this strategy altogether. The Bucs rush defense is the best unit in the NFL. The defensive line is excellent and this may lead to more sacks and more interceptions given the pass funnel nature that I suspect. The Bucs have allowed an average of 315 passing yards per game since Week 7 bye.

One of the biggest Super Bowl unknowns is who will control the Kansas City backfield. Nailing down whether it will be Clyde Edwards-Helaire or Darrell Williams is crucial in our lineup construction process. Bell and Edwards-Helaire have returned to practice in full and it’s unclear how handouts will be distributed. I was very high on Edwards-Helaire entering the season, but given the magnitude of this game, it remains unclear if the Chiefs coaching staff will trust the rookie in passing situations. Darrell Williams was the clear lead back, but with extra time to recover from injury, it is a huge mystery who will be the biggest beneficiary here.

Now, let's talk about the Chiefs' pass-catchers. First up, we start the conversation with Tyreek Hill. The Cheetah has been on fire, commanding double-digit targets in 7 of his last 9 games. Hill must be licking his lips after posting a 13 catch-3 touchdown-269-yard performance against the Bucs in their last meeting. Speaking of consistency look no further than Travis Kelce. The Bucs defense allows the most targets to TEs in the NFL. Let’s not forget he was 8 for 8 with 82 yards the last time these two teams met. With constant pressure expected, Kelce may act as a short depth of target security blanket for Mahomes. As far as other weapons go, Watkins will finally return to the lineup for the first time since December. How playing time shakes out is still a mystery. Historically, when Watkins suits up the Chiefs have rolled with Demarcus Robinson as the third option. It’s unclear if D-Rob, Mecole Hardman, or Byron Pringle have taken over the WR 2/3 role on the team. Both teams are expected to put up points which makes nailing the lower-owned players even more crucial if we want to win a tournament.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers enter this game with a healthy 26.5 team total. Remember, this team has been playing lights out on offense since their bye. They've gone over this total 7 games in a row. Since Week 7, the Bucs are averaging 34.3 points per game, one of the best marks in the NFL. Over this span, Brady has played at a very high-level racking up 2,193 yards, a 19:4 TD to INT ratio, and one rushing touchdown.

Here's a surprising fact for you: both of these teams allow a lot of rushing yards and rushing touchdowns to scrambling quarterbacks. The Chiefs allow the 3rd most rushing touchdowns, while the Bucs allow the 9th most. The stats may be slightly skewed because the Bucs have not faced many scrambling quarterbacks. Think of the NFC South: Brees, Ryan and Bridgewater. Not exactly signing up for the Scotty Miller vs Tyreek Hill race.

I doubted him initially, but playoff Lenny has lived up to his name. Over the past 3 weeks, Uncle Lenny has had 23, 22, and 17 touches. It’s no secret the Chiefs rush defense has not exactly been pristine. They've allowed the 10th most fantasy points to running backs on the season. Working in Fournette's favor is Tom Brady’s trust, and of course, his 3rd down pass-catching ability. It would be hard to imagine a game script that would not benefit Fournette. Ronald Jones is finally healthy and offers cheap value; however, he has only had 1 catch since December.

In the Bucs WR department, we can expect elevated play volume and pass on this game. The chiefs allow the ninth most plays of any team in the NFL, which should create plenty of opportunity for the trio of weapons that the Bucs possess. How do we choose which Bucs pass-catcher to target? The obvious choice is Chris Godwin who has a clear advantage based on how the Chiefs play defense. It is difficult to pass on the Chiefs on the outside, but you can attack them in the slot. Godwin has been balling in the slot and has 90+ yards in 12 of his last 16 games. Cameron Brate on paper has outperformed Rob Gronkowski, but the routes run and end zone targets have favored Gronk. We all know he is blocking more now, but underlying usage would suggest he could be in line for a big game. Over the past 6 games, the Chiefs have allowed 4 touchdowns to the tight end position. Predicting which Bucs tight end will score is a huge deciding factor in this slate as they are pretty cheap.

When the Bucs have the lead, they pass at a 56% rate. When the game is neutral, they pass at 62%. However, when this team is trailing, the offense passes 72% of the time! Make your showdown tell a story! The offense is clearly highly influenced by game script, and if you are doing a second-half showdown or fourth quarter keep this in mind!

The Chiefs much like the Bucs tend to go hyperactive in the passing department. When games are neutral, the chiefs also pass at a 62% rate, and with a lead pass at a 57% rate. One tidbit to point out, the Chiefs passed at a league high 78% of plays when these two teams squared off last time. I expect much of the same this go round.

Roster Construction (DraftKings Pricing):

Chris Godwin checks in at $8,800, Mike Evans at $8,400, and Antonio Brown at $6,200. Even though Evans' price has dropped, his production has not. He still leads the team in end zone targets, target share, and air yards. Even with the price dip, his ownership is not expected to follow making him an interesting play. He does not travel to the slot very often, only 41% of the time, but he did score 2 touchdowns from that position the last time these two teams squared off. As mentioned earlier, it is difficult to attack the Chiefs on the outside and the best strategy is to attack Snead in the slot.

Antonio Brown is trending towards playing; however, we are not certain how limited he may be or if his playing time will see any reduction. If this is the case, it opens up volume for Scotty Miller and Tyler Johnson who could be the key value plays we need to afford the stars at the top. This week, Rob Gronkowski comes in at a meager $3,000. That's a steal! He was averaging a price tag of about $5,700 throughout the season. Cameron Brate is also a very cheap option on this slate at $4,800. Correctly choosing the right Bucs tight end may be one of the most optimal strategies in jamming in the players we covet in our lineups.

Another great value play would be Ronald Jones who comes in at $2,200. If we see a more even split between Jones and Fournette than in games past, we may see Jones hit pay dirt. This also ties into the game script. If the Bucs fall behind, they will likely have to abandon the run. At $7,800 Fournette could be someone you want to consider rostering. Fournette has very modest captain ownership and it’s going to be interesting how much success he can have against the Chiefs. Speaking of modest captain ownership look no further than Tom Brady. Overshadowed by the heir to the GOAT throne, Brady has scored 30 DK points in 5 of 19 games this season.

We often think of Tyreek Hill as a low volume, big-play threat, but this season that has simply not been the case. Hill has seen a consistent target share of 27% along with 10 targets in 7 of his last 9 games. We should expect success, and figure out ways to get him into our lineups. Hill is one of the most optimal players on the slate, leading the Chiefs in red-zone targets with 14 on the season. Hitting his stride at 31 years old, Travis Kelce has been a nightmare for every defensive coordinator. Kelce commands a 25% target share and catches 75% of passes thrown his way. Not only does Kelce offer immense upside when it comes to his ceiling, but likely the highest floor of any player on this slate.

Don't worry, we haven't forgotten about the rest of the Chiefs pass-catchers. Sammy Watkins is always a boom or bust player but will command low ownership, and big-play capability. I wouldn’t go overboard, but there are definitely paths paved for him to wind up in the optimal lineup, especially if you are entering multiple lineups. Demarcus Robinson, Byron Pringle, and Mecole Hardman are on the field at the same time as Mahomes which is a good enough reason to have lineups with them in it. If you are multi-lineup entering, I would suggest taking a stab at them in different spots. After all, it’s the Super Bowl, and anything can happen as we have witnessed before.

With a difficult matchup in store, Darrell Williams will likely have more ownership than Clyde Edwards-Helaire because of the $1,800 price differential. These two may not even make it into the optimal lineup, though it would certainly be contrarian to roster either one of these backs. The expected high total, ease of access to Mahomes, and the simple fact that Tampa Bay is allowing the 6th most receptions to running backs can make rostering a Chiefs running back a bit more appealing.

Last but far from least is Mahomes. While we often marvel at his special big-play ability, and crazy throws against his body, let us not forget just how incredibly consistent he truly is. Mahomes has scored 20 points in 16 of 17 games this season while putting up 25+ points in 9 games this season. It’s hard to imagine him not having success if the Bucs cannot provide constant pressure on him, and force him into third and long situations.

Lineup Strategy (DraftKings):

We have to make difficult decisions here given the star power on this slate and take some tough stands. We can spread out exposure through multi-entering, but for some, they only play one lineup. That being said, let's talk strategy.

Here are 5 potential strategies you can incorporate while building your lineup.

Strategy 1: Jamming in the Studs. Captain: Mahomes, flex Hill and Kelce, then fill in the rest. This may seem like a popular combination, but according to data on DraftKings, only 13% of all Millie maker lineups had this combination last week. Many players look for a balanced approach, so this will give you the advantage of jamming in 3 players who will put up points regardless of game script.

Strategy 2: Captain: Mike Evans. Yes, we mentioned that Chris Godwin is the better raw player. However, given Evans' red zone targets, and expected low ownership, it could create a unique lineup.

Strategy 3: Captain: Tom Brady. For $2,000 savings on Mahomes, and with just 1 less 30 point DK game under his belt, Brady will be a contrarian captain.

Strategy 4: Find a way to include both Bucs running backs. This strategy could allow you to afford other, higher-priced options. This is just one way you can afford a bunch of Chiefs in a come from behind game script.

Strategy 5: Buccs 5-1 Onslaught. The public is leaning heavily on the Chiefs, so maybe putting Bucs defense at captain with a bunch of weapons is a different way to approach this game.

Note: These are tournament strategies, and I don’t suggest playing cash games in the Super Bowl.

Under 10% projected ownership: Demarcus Robinson, Bucs Defense, Byron Pringle, Scotty Miller, Le’Veon Bell, Tyler Johnson

Over 20% projected ownership: Patrick Mahomes, Tom Brady, Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill, Chris Godwin, Leonard Fournette, Darrell Williams, Antonio Brown, Ronald Jones, Mecole Hardman

Good luck!