Super Bowl LV: Trends & Angles

We have arrived! We are just about a week and a half away from the Super Bowl. Sometimes we get unlucky and it’s a game between two boring teams. Thankfully, this is not the case this year. We have Mahomes vs. Brady in what should be an epic clash. The LeBron vs. Jordan of games where the greatest of one generation takes on the man carry on the torch of the game once he retires.

Everyone is going to tell you this so this isn’t a very special stat, but here goes anyway. Andy Reid off a bye is pretty good. Since 2003, Reid is 17-11 ATS, which accounts for a 60.7% win rate. This includes both regular season and postseason games.

On the other side of the ball, Bruce Arians has covered the spread just four times in nine total games off a bye, which is only 44.4%. Let's be honest though, we can't truly compare previous Bucs seasons to the current one.

For months, we've been waiting for the Chiefs to cover a game. Spoiler alert! They had not done so since Nov 1st vs the Jets. As a result, people felt inclined to get off the Chiefs bandwagon and back the Bills. The Chiefs have now covered 2 out of the last 9 games while going over in 3 out of the last 5. Will the public be backing Mahomes or take a chance on none other than the GOAT?

The Bucs were a popular dog last week, and while things were quite scary in the fourth quarter for the Buccaneer backers, they eventually made critical stops when they needed to. The Bucs have been on fire and have covered 4 of the last 5 games. Even more impressive is the fact that all 3 of their playoff games have been on the road. Since 1978 - when wild-card weekend was added - only 4 teams have reached the Super Bowl without a home playoff game. Those teams are the 1985 Patriots, 2005 Steelers, 2007 Giants, and 2010 Packers. We now add Tampa Bay to this elite list of teams who have beaten the odds.

Nothing has stopped Brady so far. Not even his losing record with Clete Blakeman. Will Mahomes?

The head official for Super Bowl LIV is Carl Cheffers. Let's have a look at his stats.

Games: 16 Home SU: 7-9 Home ATS: 11-5 OU: 5-11 Avg Home Margin: -0.19 Home Penalties/Game: 5.38 Road Penalties/Game: 7.06 Average Total: 44.81

FAVORITE STATS (ATS): UNDERDOG STATS (ATS): Home Favorite Record: 4-4 Home Underdog Record: 7-1 Home Small Favorite (3 Or Less): 2-2 Home Small Underdog (3 Or Less): 3-1 Home Medium Favorite (3½ - 8): 2-2 Home Medium Underdog (3½ - 8): 2-0 Home Strong Favorite (9 - 12½): 0-0 Home Strong Underdog (9 - 12½): 2-0 Home Big Favorite (13+): 0-0 Home Big Underdog (13+): 0-0 TOTAL STATS:

Small OU (Less Than Or Equal 35): 0-0

Medium OU (35½ - 40): 0-0

Mid Range OU (40½ - 45): 1-4

Strong OU (45½ - 50): 1-5

Big OU (50½+): 3-2

According to ESPN, of the last 20 Super Bowls, 10 have gone over and 10 have gone under. This is the highest total game in Super Bowl history (56.5). Only nine times has a Super Bowl had a total of over 50. Of those nine times, two have gone over and seven have gone under.

Cheffers has officiated two chiefs games this season, the first was the Chiefs vs. Chargers (Justin Herbert's debut game). This game went under and the chiefs did not cover. The second game was a primetime game between the Chiefs and the Raiders on Sunday night. That was the game when the Chiefs won on the Travis Kelce walk off touchdown. It was high scoring and the chiefs did not cover.

The Bucs have not had Cheffers as a head official this season, but you know who has in the past? Tom Brady! Cheffers was the head official for Super Bowl LI. If you recall, the Patriots had a pretty incredible run, sometime in the second half against the Atlanta Falcons. Fun!

Congratulations to Sarah Thomas on being the first female official to call a Super Bowl. We're watching history in the making in many ways.