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The Optimal Breakdown: Ravens @ Bills

Baltimore Ravens @ Buffalo Bills | Saturday 8:15 PM ET on NBC

Team Totals: Bills 25.75, Ravens 24.25

Quarterback Comparison: Mike Vick 2.0 vs. Josh Allen's Mighty Arm

Lamar silenced the peanut gallery after his huge 40+ yard run last Sunday against the Titans. The Ravens quieted critics and finally ended their six-year post season drought, while also erasing the "Lamar can’t win in the playoffs" narrative. One thing to monitor in this game is how the Bills defense will hold up against the Ravens offense. The Colts were able to scrap up 472 yards & 6.2 yards per play, all while leaving those white Colts jerseys clean. The Bills racked up zero sacks throughout the game. The Colts had several trips into Bills territory and left without points, a mistake the Ravens definitely won't make.


In the things that bode well for Lamar category, the Bills yielded 2020’s 12th-most rushing yards to quarterbacks (327) and third-most QB rushing touchdowns (7). When Lamar is pressured his QB rating is 75.3, but when he does not face pressure he skyrockets to 106.3. Lamar has thrown 21 of his 26 touchdown passes this season from clean pockets. Getting pressure is something the Bills defense has been wishy-washy with this season. The Bills rank a middling 14th in both sack rate (6.2%) and QB hit rate (15.7%) this regular season. Plus, they barely laid a hand on Rivers last week. Lamar, if healthy, (he did rock a glove in practice after bruising his thumb) is a ticking time bomb this week.

With his rushing attack limited due to the loss of Moss, OC Brian Daboll could design more Josh Allen runs to increase quick-progression dropbacks that encourage Allen to take off for scrambles if his early reads are covered. I would take a Josh Allen’s rushing-TD prop bet since they are missing Moss, who led Buffalo in regular season red-zone carries (28) and equaled Allen in carries inside the 10 (15).


Josh Allen has some wheels of his own check out his TD score vs the Colts last week:


In the air, Allen has been light out. Even when facing the tough defenses of San Francisco, Pittsburgh, Denver, New England, Miami, and Indianapolis, Allen is 155-of-219 passing (71%), 1,840 yards (8.4 YPA), and has a 17:2 TD-to-INT ratio plus three rushing scores.


Running Back Comparison: The RBBC Backfield vs. Devin Single-Carry

The Ravens maintained the running back by committee look last week. J.K. Dobbins held a slight lead in touches (10) and playing time (51%) over Gus Edwards (8, 45%), with Mark Ingram inactive. Dobbins enters this game scoring a TD 7 weeks in a row. If he scores this week, it will break the all-time rookie record for most consecutive TD weeks in a row. I would not fear that Dobbins is coming off his season low touch count which was mostly attributed to a negative game script. Buffalo’s run defense has been problematic over the last month, allowing a combined rushing line of 83/426/5 (5.13 YPC) to enemy backs. Just ask Jonathan Taylor. Dobbins is an obvious Week 19 eruption candidate, while Edwards has earned enough recent usage for DFS-tournament playability. The Staten Island resident is a free agent, so this may be his last chance to earn a huge contract. For dynasty owners it could be huge for Dobbins if both Gus the bus and Ingrim sign else where next season.


With Ravens DLs Calais Campbell, Brandon Williams, and Derek Wolfe at full strength after all three missed considerable mid-season action, the Bills’ running game draws Baltimore’s defensive front in its stoutest state fresh off bottling up NFL rushing leader Derrick Henry. Those three were brought specifically to the Ravens to shut down Henry, and it worked. Henry's 40 rushing yards last week were his fewest in an individual game since October of 2019.


Checking in at 5’8/203 lbs, Bills lead RB Devin Singletary represents an entirely different skill set from King Henry. Singletary is destined for a near-full workload with Zack Moss (ankle) done for the postseason. Some names to note are UDFA rookie Antonio Williams and journeyman T.J. Yeldon. These two were the only other Bills backs to handle 2020 carries; Williams logged 12 – all in meaningless Week 17, and Yeldon has 10 with just a single reception. Buffalo did sign Giants leftover Devonta Freeman to its practice squad on Tuesday.


Since last January’s playoffs, Singletary has logged 15-plus touches five times, averaging 101.4 yards from scrimmage and 4.6 targets per game. Singletary reached the end zone only once in those five high-volume opportunities, and has managed three all-purpose touchdowns over his last 24 appearances. This year’s Ravens have allowed just 12 TDs in 17 games to opposing running backs.


Wide Receiver Comparison: Hollywood Brown and Company vs. Diggs and Company

Marquise Brown, Willie Snead, and Miles Boykin are the leaders in three WR sets for Baltimore. Hollywood commanded his second-highest target count all season (9) and the second-highest air yards share (55.4%) among Wild Card pass catchers behind only eliminated A.J. Brown. Among the fantasy community, many have pegged Hollywood as inconsistent, but he has 98+ yards in seven straight games. It's a strange world we live in if Marquise is the model of consistency. However, the Bills secondary is going to be a difficult draw for him. The Bills have allowed the league’s sixth-fewest fantasy wideout points this regular season, coming off a game in which they held Colts wide receivers to 10/159/1 receiving on 20 targets (50% complete) last week.


The easiest matchup would go to slot man Willie Snead. This is a difficult passing game aside from Brown and Andrews. Snead has cleared 40 yards just twice since Week 1. He’s always a touchdown-or-bust, small-slate DFS punt. Unless you're looking for a flyer TD or betting an under prop, it's best to avoid Boykin who has finished below 50 yards in 23 straight games.


Last week, many played Smoke Brown in DFS, and it was a disaster. He dropped open passes, and left a big fat zero on many scorecards. You hate to see it. Even though John Brown goose egged in last week’s win over Indianapolis, “Smokey” led Bills pass catchers in routes run (39) and playing time (97%). Now, John Brown enters a #RevengeGame against the Ravens. Josh Allen leads the league on touchdowns thrown against the blitz, and Smoke Brown is the receiver he looks to the most in those situations, leading the team in such instances. I'm still very willing to go back to Brown as a post-hype DFS-tournament play.


Stefon Diggs appeared unbothered by his oblique injury in last weekend’s win over the Colts. Diggs banked his eighth 100-plus-yard game as a Bill, averaging 14.2 yards on nine targets, aka Diggs’ second-most efficient individual performance of the season. Diggs hasn’t commanded fewer than eight targets since Week 4, and only three players left in the postseason (Marquise Brown, Tyreek Hill, Davante Adams) drew superior air yard shares (33.4%) this season.


Cole Beasley’s (knee) Week 18 participation also looked uninhibited against the Colts, catching 7-of-7 targets for 57 yards on 69% of Buffalo’s offensive snaps. This was Beasley’s most playing time since Week 14.


Fun fact: Cole Beasley is also a rapper, check out his latest song:

As is also true for Brown and Diggs, Beasley’s Divisional Round box-score outlook deserves skepticism against the Ravens. This is a defense that has allowed 2020s second-fewest fantasy wide receiver points, then stymied Titans WRs for a pedestrian 9/106/1 stat line on 16 targets (6.6 YPT) last week.


Tight End Comparison: Mark Andrews vs. Dawson Knox

One Ravens pass catcher that we should click submit into our DFS lineups this week is Mark Andrews. Buffalo has been absolutely crushed by TEs this season. The Bills gave up a league-high 92 receptions to tight ends this regular season and the NFL’s second-most yards to Andrews’ position (993). Just last week, the Bills gave up a whopping 14 catches for 136 yards and a touchdown to Colts TEs.


Dawson Knox hasn’t topped 55 yards since Week 4 of 2019. He’s cleared 40 yards once in 13 appearances this season. Knox is a classic low-floor, touchdown-or-bust tight end streamer.

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