NFL Conference Championship Weekend: Trends & Angles

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Green Bay Packers | Sunday 3:05 PM ET on FOX

The Bucs answered the call last week as popular Moneyline dogs. They've also put money in our pockets by covering 3 of the last 5 while going under in those same games. There's plenty of chatter about the weather in this game and if these Florida boys will be able to handle the "frozen tundra". Unfortunately, this team does not have any streaks to identify as these two teams don't frequently fly together. In the last 10 years, the teams have met 4 times, and guess who won 3 of those 4? The Packers, of course. Since 1977, The Bucs and the Packers have met 56 times and the Packers lead the series 33-22-1.

Alright, let's get back to the season at hand. When the Bucs have been listed at a 51 point total they are 1-1 on the year. On the other side of the ball, the Packers have gone 2-0 with a total of 51 this year. Point blank, the Packers have been locked and loaded this season. Rodgers and company have covered 3 in a row, and have gone over in those contests as well.

Aaron Rodgers Stats:

*As favorite: 94-62-3 (60%) ATS

*As home fave: 58-34-3 (63%) ATS

*As home fave less than 7 points: 27-12-1 (69%) ATS

This will be an interesting game to dissect and breakdown throughout the week. Clete Blakeman will be the official for this game.

Let's have a look at Blakeman's stats.

Games: 15 Home SU: 7-8 Home ATS: 7-8 OU: 12-3 Avg Home Margin: -1.93 Home Penalties/Game: 5.27 Road Penalties/Game: 5.93 Average Total: 58.33

FAVORITE STATS (ATS) Home Favorite Record: 6-5 Home Small Favorite (3 Or Less): 2-1 Home Medium Favorite (3½ - 8): 3-3 Home Strong Favorite (9 - 12½): 1-1 Home Big Favorite (13+): 0-0

TOTAL STATS Small OU (Less Than Or Equal 35): 0-0 Medium OU (35½ - 40): 0-0 Mid Range OU (40½ - 45): 3-0 Strong OU (45½ - 50): 3-1 Big OU (50½+): 6-2

*Hint: Clete Blakeman's games are high scoring. In games with totals similar to the Bucs-Packers, Blakeman is 6-2.

Unfortunately for one of these teams, history has not fared well between Blakeman and Brady. Blakeman was one of the two officials who measured the PSI in the footballs during halftime in the 2014-2015 AFC Championship game between the Patriots and the Colts. However, the history between these two goes back further. On a Monday night in 2013, the Patriots were visitors in North Carolina, taking on (ironically) Cam Newton and the Panthers. At the end of the game, the refs completely blew one of the most obvious PI calls in NFL history. The infamous non-PI call cost the Patriots a chance to take a snap at the 1-yard line and possibly win the game. This ended in then Patriots QB Tom Brady berating Blakeman as they walked off the field. In games where Blakeman has been on the field, Tom Brady and the Patriots were 6-7 SU. Clete Blakeman is one of the few referees that Brady has a losing record with.

For the Packers, history has fared well with this referee. When Blakeman has been on the field with the Packers, they are 11-4 SU. Do what you will with that information.

*Teams that have played the first two playoff games on the road are 3-7 SU and 2-7-1 ATS over the last 10. *Teams that are back in the playoffs after losing the previous year in AFC/NFC Championship weekend (like the Packers) are 34-15 ATS (WOW!). If this team is facing another team off a double-digit win, (Rams last week, Tampa Bay this week), the team is 22-3 ATS. For the record, Green Bay covered last week in this situation. Now, they're in the same spot this weekend.

*Since 1978, when Wild-Card Weekend was added, only 4 teams have reached the Super Bowl without a home playoff game. Those teams are the 1985 Patriots, the 2005 Steelers, the 2007 Giants, and most recently, the 2010 Packers. If the Buccaneers pull the upset this week, they will be added to this sacred list, and make it 5.

*Since 2003, when Tom Brady gets less than 50% of bets he has gone 28-15-3 (65%) ATS, which includes 2-0 ATS in his new home in Tampa with the Bucs.

*Aaron Rodgers is 1-3 in Conference Championships. Only Ken Stabler (1-4), Donovan McNabb (1-4) and Tom Brady (9-4) have lost more Conference Championships.

Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City Chiefs | Sunday 6:40 PM ET on CBS

The Bills were cover monsters late in the regular season, winning and covering the last 8 games. More recently, they've covered 4 of the last 5, and gone over in 3 of the last 5. Last week we mentioned a stat that painted an ugly picture for the Bills matchup against the Ravens. That stat was teams that have won at home in the playoffs and did not cover are 1-7 SU and 6-1-1 ATS in the following game. Even still, the Bills came out and dominated against the Ravens. They pulled out a win and covered in the Divisional Round of the playoffs. After that impressive showing, the Bills are now just the third team since 2001 to reach the Conference Championship after being outgained in the two playoff games prior.

The Chiefs have won but have not covered since November 1st against the Jets. While the Chiefs Moneyline has put some dollars in our pockets, they have been downright awful ATS this season. They've only covered 1 of the last 8 games and have gone under in 2 of the last 5. However, it is important to note that when Mahomes has been an underdog or small favorite (3 points or less), he has gone 10-2-1 (83%) ATS.

The official for this game is Bill Vinovich. This isn't Vinovich's first time around the block, in fact, this is his 15th postseason assignment. He's been on the field for 3 Wild Card Playoffs, 5 Divisional Playoffs, 4 Conference Championships, and Super Bowls XLIX and LIV.

Let's have a look at Vinovich's stats.

Games: 15 Home SU: 9-6 Home ATS: 7-8 OU: 5-10 Avg Home Margin: 4.93 Home Penalties/Game: 5.33 Road Penalties/Game: 4.87 Average Total: 47.73

FAVORITE STATS (ATS) Home Favorite Record: 5-6 Home Small Favorite (3 Or Less): 1-2 Home Medium Favorite (3½ - 8): 4-4 Home Strong Favorite (9 - 12½): 0-0 Home Big Favorite (13+): 0-0

TOTAL STATS Small OU (Less Than Or Equal 35): 0-0 Medium OU (35½ - 40): 0-0 Mid Range OU (40½ - 45): 2-2 Strong OU (45½ - 50): 3-5 Big OU (50½+): 0-3

*Vinovich only head officiated one Bills game this year and zero Chiefs games. The Bills dismantled the Fins in Week 17. Vinovich's games tend to be on the lower side of scoring.

*The Chiefs-Bills total opened at 50 and is now at 54.5. Since 2003, when totals have increased by 3 or more points, the over has gone 70-84-6 (46%). In the playoffs, the over is 3-7.