The Optimal Breakdown: Rams @ Packers

Los Angeles Rams @ Green Bay Packs | Saturday 4:35 PM ET on FOX

Team Totals: Packers 26.25, Rams 19.25

The first game of the Divisional Round of playoffs features three different Aarons. Which of those three will have the biggest impact in this game is still yet to be seen. However, there is one thing that's for sure. Between Aaron Rodgers, Aaron Jones, and Aaron Donald, we have plenty to be excited about in Green Bay on Saturday.

Quarterback Comparison: QB TBD vs. Potential MVP

At the time of this writing, we are still not sure who will be starting. It is assumed that Jared Goff will start at Lambeau Field despite his right (throwing) thumb fracture/dislocation. John Wolford (neck) was running for his life and in the process, was annihilated by Jamaal Adams. Up until that point, Wolford's passes consisted of lollipops and rainbows anyway.

Goff was born in California and played high school and college (Cal-Berkeley) ball in the same state. Plus, he spent the last five years with the L.A. Rams. The forecast for the "frozen tundra" won't live up to its name, but temperatures are expected to be in the 20s and 30s. Goff has only played two games in which the temperature was under 30 degrees. His stats in those two games speak for themselves. Goff had a combined 34.5 passer rating, a 47.2% completion rate, and a whopping 0:5 TD to INT ratio.

Fun Fact: Matt LaFleur was once the OC in LA with Goff and McVay, I wonder who this benefits? The pair still text each other plays and remain best buddies.

Aaron Rodgers returns from Green Bay’s first-round playoff bye, having accounted for multiple touchdowns in 15-of-16 games to face Los Angeles’ NFL-best pass defense. The Rams defense yielded league lows in regular-season touchdown passes (17), yards per pass attempt (6.2), completions of 20-plus yards (36), and completions of 40-plus (4) while ranking No. 2 in sacks (53). The Rams reinforced their pass-defense dominance by holding Russell Wilson to a season-low 40.7% completion rate and a measly 6.4 YPA in last week’s victory. The Rams defense will be Rodgers' first real test at a pass rush post no starting LT.

Running Back Comparison: Outstanding Rookie Cam Akers vs. Aaron Jones and Others

Cam Akers has taken control of Los Angeles’ late-season backfield, averaging 24.8 touches over his last five appearances and banking a 73% snap rate in Week 18’s upset of Seattle. If the Rams get in the red zone, they may lean on Akers as this team has the second-fewest passing attempts in the red zone in the NFL.

Darrell Henderson (ankle) is ineligible to return from I.R. before NFC Championship week, while plodding backup Malcolm Brown has logged 10 touches or fewer in nine straight games. Even as game script expectations threaten Akers’ outlook, the Rams are touchdown road dogs here. Both workload projection and matchup support Akers’ box-score chances at the Packers whose defense permitted the NFL’s seventh-most regular-season fantasy running back points. Akers also respectably logged route totals of 17 and 18 in Weeks 17-18, drawing a combined six targets. Only eight teams surrendered more running back receptions than Green Bay this season (90). With the Rams being 6.5/7 point underdogs, I would imagine he gets a ton of receptions in negative game script. If you choose to build around the Rams winning, it would most likely be through him, and a Rams defense game stack.

Aaron Jones comfortably topped the tailback corps in snaps (70%), touches (15), and targets (5) against the Bears. In the meantime, Jamaal Williams acted as Green Bay’s No. 2 (26%, 5, 0), and A.J. Dillon (11%, 1, 0) was barely used. I expect the Packers to resume featuring top-talent Jones at Williams and Dillon’s expense after Jones out-touched Williams 39 to 7 and out-snapped him 94 to 29 in the two playoff games last January. Favored by a touchdown at home, Green Bay looks positioned for a running back-friendly Week 19 script.

Wide Reciever Comparison: Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods vs. Davante Adams & Co.

Cooper Kupp is a box-score bet bust having hit paydirt once since Week 4. Only four NFL defenses permitted fewer fantasy points to wide receivers than Green Bay this regular season. Robert Woods hasn’t cleared 60 receiving yards since Week 13 and is L.A.’s likeliest wideout to draw stingy Packers perimeter CBs Jaire Alexander and Kevin King.

The world may know how elite Jalen Ramsey is, but Jaire Alexander and King have combined to allow just 77 completions on 137 targets (56%) for 863 yards (6.3 YPA) and three TD passes (2.2%) in 2020. Josh Reynolds dominated third receiver snaps (59%) in the Rams’ Wild Card win over Seattle but saw zero targets.

Note: Please avoid WRs vs Jaire Alexander.

Speaking of things to avoid let’s not play Van Jefferson who only played on special teams last week.

Even as Davante Adams appears certain to attract Jalen Ramsey’s shadow coverage, I’m willing to bet on the Adams-Rodgers on-field chemistry overcoming Saturday’s suboptimal draw. It helps that Ramsey has covered the slot on just 11% of his snaps, while Adams banked 42% of his catches and 39% of his TDs on 2020 slot routes.

Allen Lazard’s Week 17 snap rate (78%) was his highest since Week 3, re-establishing himself as Green Bay’s No. 2 wideout in playing-time terms. Yet, Lazard hasn’t cleared 60 yards since September. Again, keep in mind, the Rams yielded the league’s fewest regular-season fantasy points to wide receivers.

Sleeper: No NFL player has more boom-or-bust volatility than Marquez Valdes-Scantling. He has goose egged in four of his last six appearances and ripped stat lines of 6/85/1 and 2/87/1 in the other two. The Rams defense's ability to prevent big-plays obviously works against MVS. One interesting nugget about MVS, he leads the team in touchdowns against zone defenses, but you bet and play MVS at your own risk.

Tight End Comparison: Throw a Dart vs. The TD Money-Making Machine

Good luck trying to figure out Los Angeles tight ends to use. The Rams went double TE sets featuring Tyler Higbee (86%) and Gerald Everett (64%) respective snap rates. Yet Reynolds, Higbee, and Everett combined for exactly four Week 18 receiving yards. The Rams will almost certainly need more pass-game production to hang with Green Bay.

Los Angeles played stout tight end coverage all season. Only 10 teams allowed fewer tight end points in 2020. In Week 18, Staley’s defense somehow held Seahawks TEs to one scoreless yard on seven targets. Yet Robert Tonyan’s voluminous red-zone role keeps him DFS-tournament playable with 11 TDs over his last 15 games. During the regular season, only three tight ends commanded more targets inside the 10-yard line (7).