The Optimal Breakdown: Bucs @ Saints

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New Orleans Saints | Sunday 6:40 PM ET on FOX

Team Totals: Saints 27.5, Bucs 24.5

The Bucs and Saints will be the final game of the Divisional Round weekend. Let’s take a trip down memory lane to put into context what has happened. Week 1 of the 2020 NFL season kicks off. With no preseason the Bucs were defeated by the Saints. For the remainder of the season, the Saints had a very stable roster. In Week 9, in primetime, the Buccs were downright demolished on national television. Evans was hurt, Gronk was hurt, and Antonio Brown was just signed that week, and he did not know the offense.

Since the 1970 merger, there have been 21 matchups between divisional rivals where one team swept the regular season. The team that swept the regular season has gone 14-7 SU in those games. Home teams in this spot are 12-5 SU. The saints are in a familiar spot. They were in these exact same shoes back in 2017 when they beat the Carolina Panthers.

The Bucs also may be underperforming in these primetime games because of Tom Brady’s bed time. More on that to come.

Tampa Bay scored a touchdown on 3-of-23 drives this season versus the Saints, in games where you could've gone to bed by halftime and not missed much. The Saints really have had the Bucs number the last time they played. In that last meeting, Tampa put up a season-low 194 yards of offense and set an NFL record with just five rushing attempts for eight yards. As the Browns showed last week, we cannot just assume what happened in the first two matchups between teams will predict the future of these teams in the playoffs.

The Bucs are coming into this matchup as hot as they have been all season. They have won five in a row and have scored 30 or more points in four straight games for the first time in franchise history. They have made some changes offensively as well. The Bucs have used play-action on 27.0% of their dropbacks since their Week 13 bye after a meager 18.0% prior to. On those play-action passes, Tom Brady’s six passing touchdowns are second in the league.

The team has also gotten more aggressive through the air on early downs. The Bucs have thrown on first down 54% of the time outside of the fourth quarter since their bye. They have also averaged 8.5 yards per attempt on those throws whereas they were 49% for 7.1 Y/A prior to the bye. The Bucs run game will be put to the test here. Last week, the Saints completely bottled up David Montgomery. With Ronald Jones' status up in the air, we shouldn't put much stock into Fournette or Keshawn Vaughn.

The Bucs will have their hands full facing a Saints defense that has allowed opponents to score on a league-low 26.1% of their offensive possessions since Week 9. This defense is also allowing a touchdown on a league-low 14.4% over that span. New Orleans did allow 24+ points to the Eagles, Chiefs, and Vikings in Weeks 14-16, but have allowed 13 or fewer points in seven of those 10 games in that sample.

Quarterback Comparison: The GOAT vs. Drew Brees

When these teams last played in Week 9, the Saints pressured Brady on a season-high 54% of his dropbacks, leaving him 9-of-19 for 76 yards. Since then, Brady is playing his best stretch of football all season. He is throwing for 327.0 yards per game since that rock-bottom Week 9. Brady has had six 300-yard games over those eight games and 348+ passing yards over four in a row. He has thrown multiple touchdown passes in all eight of those games while he averaging at least 8.4 Y/A in every game over that span, except for a matchup with the Rams. The Bucs have faced six defenses that are 16th or lower in pass defense EPA over that time period, but Brady is coming off passing for 381 yards and two scores against the No. 3 defense just a week ago. When Bucs traveled back north for the Wild Card round, the Football Team pressured Brady on 32.6% of his dropbacks, his highest rate since Week 10.

The Saints have not allowed an opposing passer to hit 8.0 Y/A against them since Week 7, and have allowed multiple passing touchdowns in just two of their past 10 games played. Both Patrick Mahomes (25.9 fantasy points) and Kirk Cousins (23.6 points) did manage to throw three touchdowns in those games to show that production can still be had. The other quarterbacks the Saints have faced over that span have been Nick Mullens, Matt Ryan (x2), Jalen Hurts, Teddy Bridgewater, a QB-less Denver team, Mitchell Trubisky, and Brady himself. Overall, a fairly weak group of QBs.

Since returning to the lineup in Week 15, Brees has posted 19.4, 8.1, 20.0, and 18.8 fantasy points. The meager 8.1 fantasy points come attached to 311 yards and 12.0 yards per pass attempt in a game where the Saints just happened to rush for seven touchdowns. In two games versus the Bucs, Brees threw for 5.3 and 6.9 Y/A, but threw six touchdown passes with a season-high four when these teams last played. The Tampa Bay pass defense has been susceptible since the start of the season. Since dismantling Aaron Rodgers back in Week 6, the Bucs have allowed multiple passing touchdowns in 8-of-11 games while allowing 21.9 fantasy points and 18.2 passing points per game to opposing passers over that stretch. There were only two times they held an opposing passer to under 17 fantasy points over that span. These two instances include QB Daniel Jones (16.2 points) and a single game which included QBs Matthew Stafford, Chase Daniel, and David Blough.

Running Back Comparison: Alvin Kamara vs. Rojo and Playoff Lenny

Alvin Kamara came off the COVID list last week with no practice time, and the Saints gave him no restrictions. Kamara ate. The Saints fed him 25 touches for 116 yards and his 22nd touchdown of the season. Just a little bit impressive, right?

Prior to Week 16, Kamara didn't rack up 20 rushing attempts in a single NFL game but has handled 22 and 23 rushes over his past two games. That being said, turning in production on the ground here will be a tall order as Tampa Bay forces teams to be one-dimensional due to their elite run defense. They face the fewest amount of rushing attempts per game (16.5) from backfields while allowing a league-low 3.19 YPC to backs. In two games versus the Bucs, Kamara has rushed 21 times for 56 yards, but he does have a rushing touchdown in each game. Kamara also had five receptions in each game, an area where the Bucs do give up some production to backs. During the regular season, Tampa Bay allowed 10.9 receiving points per game to opposing backs (28th) and a league-high 6.0 receptions per game to backs. Including those two games mentioned this regular season, Kamara has at least five receptions in all eight of his career games against the Bucs with a 53-465-3 receiving line.

A week ago, Ronald Jones suffered a quad injury in pregame warm-ups and didn't log a single snap in the playoff matchup in Washington. We still have to wait on the status for Jones this week, but we have dealt with this unpredictable backfield for just about the entirety of this season. With Jones failing to log a snap, Leonard Fournette had his best game of the season, turning 23 touches into 132 yards and a touchdown. Fournette’s 4.9 YPC were his most in a game this season since Week 2. Regardless of if Jones is available or not, the Saints are just about as tough as a rushing matchup as their counterpart in this game. The Saints are fifth in rushing points allowed per game to backfields (10.4 per game) and eighth in yards per carry allowed to backs (3.87 YPC). New Orleans allowed just 10 touchdowns to backfields, which was tied for second-fewest in the league. To kick off the playoffs, they limited David Montgomery to 31 yards on 12 touches. In Week 9, Tampa Bay backs posted 59 yards on 13 touches against New Orleans and 103 total yards on 26 touches back in Week 1.

Wide Receiver Comparison: Thomas, Sanders, and Harris vs. Evans, Godwin, and Brown

Returning to the lineup for the first time since Week 14, Michael Thomas caught 5-of-7 targets for 73 yards and his first touchdown of the season. Thomas has reached double-digit PPR points in seven of his 10 games played this season. However, his 17.9% targets share last week was clear evidence that the Saints are keeping with the spread-the-ball mentality. This trend has been more apparent with Brees under center as opposed to Taysom Hill. In his three full games played with Brees, Thomas has seen 17.1% of the team’s targets as opposed to 32.5% in his four full games with Hill as the quarterback. Tampa Bay is 21st in points allowed per game to opposing WR1s (15.9), with Thomas managing games of 3-17-0, and 5-51-0 in their previous 2 meetings.

In the games that Emmanuel Sanders played with Michael Thomas active this season, Sanders had just 12.8% of the team targets and averaged 7.9 PPR points per game. In games where Thomas was inactive, Sanders managed 22.4% of the targets and 14.9 points per game. Sanders still scored three of his five touchdowns with Thomas on the field, and in both games against the Buccaneers. There is clearly still touchdown potential for those chasing a score.

Playing in his first game since Week 11, Deonte Harris came off injured reserve to have his best game of the season. Harris only played 24 snaps and ran 14 pass routes, but was targeted a season-high seven times, catching all seven for 83 yards. Harris had yet to clear 46 yards on the season prior, so the question will be was Harris saved as a special part of this specific game plan, or was his usage just happenstance? Even with the spike, Harris still has just one touchdown on the season to latch onto for scoring upside.

Mike Evans has found his stride to close the season, posting 110, 181, and 119 yards over his past three full games played. Over his past seven full games, Evans is averaging 9.0 targets per game on 22.7% of the team looks as opposed to 5.8 targets per game on 14.9% of the team targets prior. In two games versus the Saints this season, Evans had games of 1-2-1 and 4-64-0. Evans has ghosted us a few times in this rivalry as he has drawn coverage from Marshon Lattimore. Last season, he was goose-egged on three targets versus New Orleans in Week 5 and then came back with 4-69-0 on eight targets in Week 11 with Lattimore inactive. In seven career games with Lattimore on the field, Evans has reeled in 22-of-45 targets for 367 yards and two touchdowns. He does have one 7-147-1 haymaker game mixed in to remind us that he is still capable of producing a juicy outcome at any moment regardless of the matchup.

The talking point surrounding Chris Godwin last week centered around his four infamous drops. Let us not forget though, Godwin still turned in a productive 5-79-1 line on a season-high 12 targets and 30% of the team targets. Godwin has now scored in each of his past four games with five total touchdowns over that span. Godwin runs 67% of his routes from the slot, which will put him far away from both Lattimore and Janoris Jenkins. Godwin will still be challenged by slot-man Chauncey Gardner-Johnson who ranked ninth in the league in yards allowed per coverage snap (1.12) among all slot corners who played 50% of the snaps this season. Godwin posted games of 6-79-0 and 3-41-0 in these teams' previous meetings.

Antonio Brown has also scored in each of the past four games with five total touchdowns over that span, catching 2-of-3 targets for 49 yards and a touchdown last week in Washington. Brown now has at least one 30-yard reception in three of the past four games. Now with Evans back and healthy, Brown went back down to just three targets last week after receiving 14 targets the week prior when Evans exited the game early on. In Brown’s eight games with Evans fully operational, he has averaged 11.9 points per game and 9.3 points per game in his games without a touchdown. After allowing 11 touchdowns to opposing wideouts through eight games, the Saints have allowed six to opposing wideouts over their past nine games.

Tight End Comparison: Gronk vs. Cook

Since acquiring Antonio Brown, Rob Gronkowski has just 19 receptions, catching two or fewer passes in seven of those nine games. Those stats include a big zero in the catching department last week in Washington with just one target. Meanwhile, Cameron Brate caught 4-of-6 targets for 80 yards. Over the past nine games, Brate now has 22 receptions compared to Gronk’s 18. Even though his targets are down, Gronk is still getting high-leverage opportunities, averaging a team-high 15.9 yards per catch over that span while matching Mike Evans with a team-high seven end zone targets (four for scores).

Opposing teams targeted their tight ends a league-high 25.8% of the time against the Saints. New Orleans stood up to the volume, allowing a 59.5% catch rate (third) and 1.62 points per target (seventh) to the position. Where they were susceptible is in the endzone, allowing nine touchdowns (25th) on those targets, including another score at the end of the game last week to Jimmy Graham.

Jared Cook matched a season-high with seven targets last week, catching 4-for-40 yards. Despite the target spike, Cook still has managed four or more catches in four games with a season-high of five. While Cook is not a major asset in the catch and target department, he does lead the team with 11 end zone targets, has an average depth of target (12.1 yards), and yards per reception (13.3 yards) to at least give his opportunities some upside. Tampa Bay has allowed a 71.7% catch rate on targets to tight ends (27th) and a 7.1% touchdown rate to the position (19th) with a touchdown catch surrendered to a tight end in three of their past five games.