The Optimal Breakdown: Browns @ Chiefs

Cleveland Browns @ Kansas City Chiefs | Sunday 3:05 PM ET on CBS

Team Totals: Chiefs 33.5, Browns 23.5

I can guarantee you will see Andy Reid's off-a-bye stats in your telecast this weekend. Over the span of his career, Reid is 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS with a first-round bye, and 2-1 both SU and ATS with Kansas City in this spot. With a 14-2 record overall, the Chiefs were a league-best 5-0 against teams with a winning record this season. The Chiefs let down a let of bettors this year, covering just 1 game over the last 8. Maybe the team was bored with the regular season and will look for more fun in the Super Bowl. How will they do it? Let’s break it down.

Kansas City was in a similar spot a year ago as the No. 2 seed, beating the Texans 51-31 in a game in which they were 10-point favorites. The Chiefs had won 10 straight going into Week 17 when they rested key starters, but they have not been blowing teams out. They've failed to cover the spread in every game since Week 8 against the Jets. Their past seven wins have all been decided by six points or less.

The Browns are in a very unfamiliar spot. Cleveland is coming off a 48-37 win in Pittsburgh, their first playoff win since returning to the league in 1999, and first since the 1995 season. The Browns have not been underdogs by 7, let alone 10 this year.

The Browns have averaged 6.0 yards per play on offense (10th), and have gotten more aggressive as the season has worn on. Through 11 weeks, the Browns had thrown the ball on just 46% of their first and second down plays outside of the fourth quarter, which was 29th in the league. From Week 12 on, Cleveland has thrown the ball 59% of the time on those early downs outside of the final quarter, which is the ninth-highest rate in the league. Mayfield does offer a ton of salary relief in DFS tournaments this weekend. On those early down passes, Baker Mayfield has completed 66.2% of his passes for 7.9 Y/A with eight touchdowns and one interception.

Let us not forget, nobody is more aggressive throwing the ball on early downs than the Chiefs. Kansas City is top of the league in early down pass rate outside of the fourth quarter at 64%. Unfortunately for the Browns, as strong as their offense has performed over the back half of the season, their defense is also allowing 6.1 yards per play over that span, which is 24th in the league. The Browns only played six games this season against teams in the top half of the league in offensive EPA. Excluding the two games versus the Raiders and Texans in inclement weather, those other four games have averaged 66.0 combined points.

Quarterback Comparison: College Buds

Patrick Mahomes hits the postseason for the third consecutive season. Mahomes is currently leading the league with 316.0 passing yards per game along with 38 touchdown passes to just six interceptions. For fantasy purposes, Mahomes scored fewer than 18.6 fantasy points just once this season and trailed only Aaron Rodgers with 22.0 passing points per game. Cleveland is allowing 17.2 passing points per game (26th in the league), while allowing 17-plus fantasy points to quarterbacks including Mike Glennon, Sam Darnold, and Mason Rudolph over their final seven games. The only passer that did not produce multiple touchdowns against Cleveland over that span was Colt McCoy.

Baker Mayfield threw three touchdown passes and averaged 7.7 Y/A in his first postseason game. Missing multiple offensive linemen, the Browns quarterback was hurried just twice on two of his 36 dropbacks. In their previous two meetings, Pittsburgh had pressured Mayfield on 35% of his dropbacks and sacked him eight times. Mayfield now has 14 touchdown passes to just one interception over his past seven games after throwing 15 touchdowns and seven interceptions over his first 10 games of the season. He is averaging 20.8 fantasy points per game over that span after 12.6 per game in the prior span.

The Chief's pass defense has sagged down the stretch from their numbers early in the season. After allowing 6.6 Y/A and nine touchdown passes through their opening eight games (15.2 fantasy points per game), opposing passers have averaged 7.5 Y/A with 20 touchdown passes against the Chiefs over their past eight games (23.5 points per game). They have allowed multiple touchdowns passes in all eight of those games after just twice over their initial eight games.

Running Back Comparison: The Best RB Duo In The League vs. The Uncertain Backfield

Nick Chubb continued his torrid production last week with 22 touches for 145 yards and a touchdown. His 69 yards receiving were a career-high last week as he caught just the third touchdown reception of his career on a 40-yard catch and run. With that touchdown, Chubb has now scored in seven straight games, the first Cleveland player to have such a streak since Bo Scott in 1970. Chubb has now produced over 100 yards from scrimmage in nine of his 12 full games this season, and in seven of his nine games since returning to the lineup in Week 10.

The Chiefs allowed 4.5 yards per carry to backs (20th), and 141.8 total yards per game to opposing backfields during the season (28th). When facing the Chiefs, eight different backs hit 100 yards from scrimmage, but oddly this defense has allowed just 10 touchdowns to opposing backs, which was tied for second in the league.

Kareem Hunt returns to face Kansas City coming off nine touches for 61 yards and two touchdowns. The two scores covered a lot of ground as he has 62 or fewer total yards in seven of his past eight games. Hunt still has games of 102, 132, and 110 yards over that span with the multiple touchdown game last week to showcase that he still has a high ceiling. However, he is clearly second-hand to Chubb at this point with Chubb out-touching him 69-37 over the past four games.

The Chiefs' backfield will be a situation to monitor throughout the week. The Chiefs could get Clyde Edwards-Helaire back, who is now three weeks removed from a high-ankle sprain that he suffered in Week 15. The team also has Le’Veon Bell dealing with a knee issue that they were cautious about to close the regular season.

Darwin Thompson had 110 yards and two touchdowns in Week 17, but the regular Kansas City backfield had not produced a 100-yard player in any other game since Week 6. In the nine games after acquiring Bell, Weeks 7-16, the Chiefs’ backs combined for an average of 22.8 touches for 105.9 total yards per game with six combined touchdowns. Over that span, Edwards-Helaire himself went down to 24.3% of the team touches per game as opposed to 39.2% prior to adding Bell.

The Browns have faced just 22.9 backfield touches per game this season, which is the fourth-fewest in the league while ranking 15th in rushing points allowed per game (12.3) and sixth in receiving points allowed per game (7.2) to opposing backfields.

Wide Receiver Comparison: The Cheetah and Others vs. Jarvis Landry and Others

Tyreek Hill sat out Week 17 with a hamstring injury and rest but is coming off a season in which he matched a career-high with 87 receptions, and set a new high with 17 touchdowns. Hill’s usage ramped up as the season progressed. Through eight games, Hill was receiving 6.8 targets per game (18.6% of the team total). Over his final seven games of the season, he averaged 11.4 targets per game, which was good for 26.1% of the team targets in those games. Cleveland was 18th in points allowed per game to opposing WR1s (15.3). Hill led the NFL with nine touchdowns on targets over 15 yards downfield, while the Browns have allowed a league-high 17 touchdown passes on those downfield targets this season.

The Chiefs have been more dependent on funneling their passing game strictly through Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce this season. Hill and Kelce combined to accrue 45.8% of the team’s targets, 45.7% of the receptions, 53.8% of the receiving yardage, and 40% of the touchdown receptions.

Sammy Watkins only managed a 37-421-2 line in 10 games this season while averaging a career-low 11.4 yards per reception. Keep in mind though, Watkins has typically shown up in the postseason for the Chiefs. In five career postseason games with Kansas City, Watkins has had a low of 9.6 PPR points with games of 6-62-0, 4-114-0, 2-76-0, 7-114-1, and 5-98-0. We will continue to monitor Watkins' injury.

Mecole Hardman caught 15 more passes this season (41) than as a rookie last season but managed just 22 more receiving yards with two fewer touchdowns on those receptions. Hardman has hit 50 yards in just four games this season, and more than 60 yards receiving just twice. He has four or fewer receptions in every game but one. However, Hardman had surpassed Demarcus Robinson to close the season. In the final two games with this offense in full, Hardman saw 15 targets compared to just five for Robinson. While these two have not done a ton, the matchup is right for anyone here to offer production. The Browns have allowed 14 different wide receivers to post double-digit PPR points over their past seven games.

Jarvis Landry has at least five receptions in six consecutive games, receiving 25.5% of the team targets over that span. Landry has also found the end zone in four of those six games after failing to score over his first 10 games played this season. The Chiefs defense was stout against opposing wideouts this season, allowing a 59.6% catch rate on wideout targets, which was second in the NFL and 7.5 yards per target to the position (fifth).

Rashard Higgins has had four fewer receptions in every game but three this season as the WR2, but does have a 15.1-yard average depth of target and 16.3 yards per reception when looks do come his way. Higgins has more receiving yardage than Landry in 6-of-9 games since the offense lost OBJ, despite the large target disparity.

Tight End Comparison: The WR in Disguise vs. Hoops

Opposing teams have combated the Chiefs this season by ramping up their use of high safeties. As a partial byproduct, Kelce produced one of the greatest statistical seasons for a tight end in league history. The WR in disguise caught 105 passes for 1,416 yards and 11 touchdowns. He averaged a career-high 13.5 yards per reception while his 9.8 yards per target were his most in a season since 2014. Kelce enters the postseason having double-digit targets in seven of his past eight games played while catching at least seven passes in all eight of those games. He is the first tight end to ever have such a streak in any season.

The Browns were 28th in targets faced to opposing tight ends (7.5 per game), ranking 25th in catch rate (70.8%) and 15th in yards allowed per target (7.3) to the position. This defense has also allowed an 8.3% touchdown rate (26th) to tight ends in the regular season, and then allowed Eric Ebron to post a 7-62-1 line on 11 targets on Sunday night.

Austin Hooper has double-digit PPR points in four straight games. Despite having 46 or fewer yards in seven of his eight games since returning to the lineup in Week 10, Hooper has seen his usage begin to spike with 18.8%, 28.3%, 18.5%, and 32.4% of the team targets over the past four weeks. This comes after being at 10% or lower in three of his previous four games. Hooper also leads the team with seven end zone targets since returning to action in Week 10, securing four for touchdowns.

The Chiefs were 20th in catch rate (69.6%), 22nd in yards per target (7.7) and 21st in touchdown rate (7.1%) allowed to opposing tight ends this season. The way to attack the chiefs is over the middle of the field.