NFL Divisional Playoff Weekend: Trends & Angles

Los Angeles Rams @ Green Bay Packers | Saturday 4:35 PM ET on FOX

The Rams have covered 2 games back-to-back and are a team that plays to the under, going under in 4 of the last 5. The Packers have covered 2 in a row and 3 of the last 5. Likewise, the Packers have gone over 2 in a row and in the last 3 of 5.

Weather concerns will make this game interesting. Aaron Rodgers and the Pack knew their best chances of surviving the playoffs would be forcing their opponent to survive 60-minutes in the frozen tundra, which by the way, is not actually frozen. The "frozen tundra" is a myth. In fact, the ground at Lambeau Field, home of the one and only Green Bay Packers, is heated! The ground at Lambeau has not been frozen in over 50 years, since 1967 to be exact. Unfortunately, temperatures in 1967 for the NFL Championship were actually TOO cold for the system to operate. The infamous Ice Bowl between the Packers and the Cowboys left players on both sides slipping and sliding, which lead to the birth of the nickname "frozen tundra".

Now, let's time travel back to 2021. This weekend, we'll see the No. 1 ranked scoring offense pinned up against the No. 1 ranked scoring defense. Aaron Rodgers and company are averaging almost 32 points per game. On the other side of the ball, the Rams are allowing the least amount of points in the league, at just under 19 points per game. Injuries will be important on the Rams side heading into this weekend. Both offensive and defensive injuries are only going to help the Packers. DT Aaron Donald is dealing with a rib injury, WR Cooper Kupp has bursitis in his knee, and the QB situation is a whole other mess. QB John Wolford has a stinger, meanwhile, QB Jared Goff is continuing to recover from thumb surgery he underwent just before the New Year.

This season, the Rams have only played 2 games where the kickoff temperature was less than 60 degrees. Both of these games were in Seattle with game-time temperatures hovering in the upper 30s to mid-40s. Saturday's forecast calls for highs in the 20s. Jared Goff's stats in the cold speak for themselves, even though there isn't much for them to say. Since day 1 in the NFL, Goff has only played 2 games in weather under 30 degrees. Yikes alert! He had a combined 34.5 passer rating, 47.2% completion rate, zero touchdowns, five interceptions, and an average of 190.5 passing yards in those 2 games.

This season, Aaron Rodgers has played in 7 games where the temperature has been at or below 38 degrees.

If we're talking extremes, Aaron Rodgers has played in six games where the temperature has been under 30 degrees since 2016. His stats don't just speak for themselves, they scream MVP. In those 6 games, Rodgers threw 10 touchdowns to one interception and finished with a 108.7 passer rating and a 65.8% completion rate.

Chris Ostrow's Optimal Take: I’m curious to see the game plan is as the Rams have been more aggressive in road games. Rodgers has also played much better at home. Defense vs offense here.

Baltimore Ravens @ Buffalo Bills | Saturday 8:15 PM ET on NBC

The Ravens are on fire and have covered 7 games straight. However, they didn't have a hot start to the season. Injuries to their defense gave the Ravens a shaky start to the year, but because of the last 7 games, the Ravens are 11-5-1 ATS this season. Playing better defenses, the purple birds have gone under 3 in a row, with 3 of the last 5 going under.

On the other side of the line of scrimmage, the Bills as we highlighted last week have been cover monsters. Unfortunately, as we pointed out, all good things must come to an end. In the first game of the postseason, the Bills failed to cover against Old Man Rivers and the Colts. This snapped an 8-game covering streak by the Bills. The stats for teams that have won at home in the playoffs and did not cover are not looking good for Buffalo; those teams are 1-7 SU and 6-1-1 ATS in the following game. Overall on the season, the Bills are 11-6 ATS. When the Bills play expect points to fly, they've gone over in 3 of the last 5. One of those games was a push, so technically, it depends where you got the closing line.

Weather is expected to be an issue in this game as well. Snow shouldn't be a problem for the Bills right? Well, the answer to that question is more than a simple yes or no. Buffalo's offense has been very one-dimensional this season. Josh Allen can throw for 300 yards, but the team cannot run the ball. In the 2 games this season where the temperature was below 40 degrees, Allen threw for a combined 462 yards. This would imply that with the potential for cold weather, gusty winds, and snow - this will be a game that's played on the ground. What better team plays a good game on the ground than Baltimore? This is why money is coming in on the Baltimore Moneyline. Baltimore is going to run the ball up the gut in every and any which way possible - with Jackson, with Dobbins, and with Edwards. Not to mention, Lamar is trying to slide into the record books. He needs just one more 100+ yard game on the ground to tie Michael Vick's 11-game record. If he does that, these two legends will go down in the record books as the league's leaders in having the most 100+ yard rushing games in NFL history (including playoffs).

Chris Ostrow's Optimal Take: A lot of public support early for the visitors. This may very well be the game of the weekend.

Cleveland Browns @ Kansas City Chiefs | Sunday 3:05 PM ET on CBS

The Browns were great Moneyline dogs last week and have covered in 3 of the last 5. However this year, against AFC opponents, the Browns are just 3-10 ATS. The Browns have also been involved in high scoring games due to injuries and COVID, they've gone over in 3 of the last 5 games.

The Chiefs, on the other hand, have been pretty terrible at covering the spread this season. They've won, but they haven't put money in our pockets as a favorite, only covering 1 of the last 8 games. Ironically, that cover was as a 20+ favorite against Adam Gase's pitiful Jets. Even being horrible ATS this year, the Chiefs are 26-14 ATS over the last 3 seasons against AFC opponents. The Chiefs' totals are always high off the start and have still hit the over in 3 of the last 5 games.

After playing in what many are calling, the Browns-Steelers Super Bowl last weekend, the Browns are in a tricky situation. Andy Reid's record off of a bye is incredible. The stats speak for themselves. Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes have put up 40, 41, 40, 51, and 35 points in games coming off a bye. That doesn't include the Super Bowl in which they put up 31 points. Playoff history stats do not bode well for the dogs that pull big upsets in Wild Card Weekend. In playoffs, teams that rip away double-digit upsets, and then go into the next round as a dog are only 12-46 SU and 22-36 ATS. Yikes alert!

Christ Ostrow's Optimal Take: My initial feeling is a letdown spot for the Browns after just playing a hugely emotional game against the Steelers. The Chiefs are due to have a blow-up game and the Cleveland defense may be the exact team they need to see.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New Orleans Saints | Sunday 6:40 PM ET on FOX

Tom Brady's bedtime has been an issue in primetime games this season. In an interview, Brady revealed that he has a strict 8 PM night-night time. Once again, it looks like Brady must have taken a nap last week as he led the Buccaneers to another win, but they did not cover against Washington. The Buccaneers are now over in 3 of 5 in the late-season stretch where it seems like they are really clicking. Lack of preseason this year as a result of the pandemic led to a slow start for Brady on a new team for the first time in over 2 decades. Now, this offense is finally starting to get it together with weapons available for TB12 everywhere he looks.

The Saints were due for a cover when everyone was off of them against the bears. The Saints have been a bet-on team covering 3 in a row and 3 of the last 5. Vegas has priced them high once again. The Saints defense is as legit as it gets and has gone under 2 in a row; they have also gone 3 of the last 5 to the under.

Christ Ostrow's Optimal Take: Overs have hit in dome playoff games at a 70% and above clip. This is also a game between familiar foes meeting for the third time. The stats are not great for Tom Brady's Buccaneers. We have seen teams meet 3 times in one season only 7 times in NFL history. The team that lost the first 2 times (Tampa Bay) is 4-3 ATS in their 3rd meeting. However, the team that won the first 2 (Saints), is 5-2 SU.